How do you expect Southee to learn how to bowl at a higher calibre of batsman if he isnt playing against high calibre batsmen? Your argument contradicts itself.
No it doesn't, because you can play a higher calibre without starting at the very top. I didn't think Southee should've played his debut when he did in the first place anyway.
Obviously it would be better preperation if we were player a higher ranked side, but unlike India, New Zealand has to adhere to the Future Tours Program. Bangladesh is who we are playing, and Southee, or anyone else cant change that.
Indeed. There isn't too much advantage to playing Bangladesh outside stat boosting. It's not like they're the best in the world at playing quick, swing and seam bowlers.
How has he been solid? Averages of over 30 (and well over 50 in England) in his last 3 series against proper opposition (Bangladesh excluded) is not, in my opinion, solid. Experience doesnt replace skill, with Southee has bucketloads.
You need to have experience to make the most of your skill though. Perhaps if Southee didn't get sick and had played all the tests in England I'd be more confident of him being able to do well in Australia. Martin has been solid in that he has bowled well even if he hasn't taken wickets.
An attack of O'Brien, Mills and Martin will be absolutely toothless against Australia. I said before, New Zealand doesnt need two workhorse bowlers (O'Brien and Martin), we need atleast one wicket taker..which is what Southee is.
Mills is a wicket taker, as is Vettori. If you replace Martin or O'Brien with Southee it won't be much of an improvement. Grantted, Southee could do extremely well, but realistically speaking there's a bigger chance that he could concede over 100 for no wickets taken.
You have to remember, once a batsman is set, you need to figure a way to get him out.
Plus, Australia is more conducive to seam than it is to seam, especially on the pitches where we'll be playing them - Brisbane which is usually in the batsmans favour, and Adelaide which favours spin slightly.
You have your head in the sand (or have just completely ignored the stats I listed).
Lets do a bit of analysis on Martin shall we?
He averages a healthy 102.12 with the ball against Australia, in 6 matches. With an economy of over 4.
Averages of our main bowlers versus Australia in Australia (and against Australia overall) since Hadlee:
Vettori: 40.06 (34)
Cairns: 39.03 (41.94)
Morrison: 61.40 (34.83)
Martin: 70 (102.12)
Doull: 46.45 (54.41)
Bond: 96.33 (96.33)
Franklin: No wickets in Australia (44.58)
Tuffey: No wickets
Oram: No wickets
O'Connor: 44.14 (29.61)
Mills: 99
The only teams (excluding Bangladesh and Zimbabwe) he averages under 30 against is South Africa and Sri Lanka. And the 4 tests he played against Sri Lanka were all at home (where his average is decent, just under 30).
His last two series against England he has averaged over 30 at home, and over 50 away.
So tell me, when has he played well recently?
When has Southee played well recently? I mean, very recently? It's not like they're both fresh off the plane from England and in recent cricketing form.
Southee has played 2 test matches, one of which he took a 5fa on debut and looked like absolute gold, and one in his debut overseas at Lord's, where he looked overwhelmed by the whole occassion.
I don't see how anyone can make a case to leave out our most promising bowler (and probably the worlds most promising 19yo cricketer), and include a guy who averages over 100 with the ball against Australia, in 6 test matches.
Also, I would rather someone bowling a maximum of 5 overs of quality swing bowling, compared to someone bowling 10 overs of absolute rubbish.
Southee is going to look absolute gold at times and then overwhelemed the next, as that what generally happens to 19/20 year olds in their first few tests.
I'm not sure why we're even talking about replacing Martin when if anyone should go it should be O'Brien imo.
And Southee isn't guaranteed to send down 5 quality overs of swing, though. For that to happen the ball has to be swinging, and he has to control it.