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A.F.L Thread

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vic_orthdox

Global Moderator
This really is one of the most wide open flag races in a long long time. Quite intriguing...

Those Who Could Contend...
- West Coast has to be worried about their lack of football at the MCG. Look at St. Kilda at the 'G. However, with such a strong defence, we've seen that (especially from previous Western Australian premiership sides) that this is often what brings flags.
- Geelong are playing very well, but against poor opposition and very early in the season. I don't see them taking it out. While they're now the highest scoring team on average in the league, they're also starting to be exposed in defence the other way a bit more often.
- St. Kilda seem to lack depth, probably a side effect of having so many "stars", they can't afford quality through the guys 20 to 30 on their list. However, when fully fit, they can be simply awesome.
- Adelaide are just a *click* away from being a top four side, and with guys like McLeod and Riccuito have to be feared in finals. If they can get their forward set up right, then they'll be worrying some sides come August/September.
- Concerning the best of the last three years (Port and Brisbane), every team that makes the 8 will be hoping that they miss out, because you wouldn't want to be playing them late in the year. If anyone could come from below the top four to take out a premiership under this new system, it would have to be one of these two sides.
- Richmond are probably in a similar situation to St. Kilda re: depth. But if they stay injury free, they're a side that depens so much on confidence that, while they have it, they might just bound away, and get a top four spot.
- I'm still not sold on Melbourne. Their midfield is just a lil below what you see at the other top clubs, dependant on Bruce, and question marks hang over their defence. To me, Rivers is a glorified J. Cloke, fantastic third man up but not the best at taking the opposition's best forward.

Those Who Could Not...
- Freo, Bulldogs and Sydney might make the finals, but will have very little say on preceedings late in the year. Freo doesn't have the steel, Bulldogs the game plan and Sydney the class to make it past week 2 at best, the Swans most likely to prove me wrong.
- Like to say farewell now to the Kangas, who would be ruing the fact that they've won 5 games (against poor opposition bar a depleted Saints) already because for the rest of the year, they'll play like a bottom 2 side.
- Same with Blues, and they'll go chasing draft picks. Same with Collingwood. But I don't think that any side will get priority picks this year. Pagan cares too much to let a season slide, and when the Pies get Buckley and Rocca back, they'll remain rather competitive (unfortunately).
- Hawthorn will tease all year, pull off upsets and lose to sides that they probably should beat.
- Essendon to finish outside the 8 by a few wins, although if they have a good draw they might just push. Sheedy caring too much about his hide to let the team drop down and get higher draft picks. Culture at Essendon is to make finals no matter what it takes, they must be successful. Kev won't stop striding for that now. However, too much left to too few to be a consistently good side.

Meh, had some time to waste. It's honest, and just an opinion. Hope a lot of it is proved wrong. And I still have no better idea about who's likely to win the whole thing. Lucky its round 9 I guess.
 

Jono

Virat Kohli (c)
Linda said:
I didnt get to see the Richmond match.. what happened to Bowden??!
I tipped the Tigers (hesitantly I might add, cant believe they hadnt travelled!!)), and they didnt let me down.. Awesome.
I'm not sure if you saw the match, but do you remember Chris Hyde from Richmond clashing heads with Maguire during the Richmond vs. St Kilda match in round 5? Maguire was concussed but came back the next week I believe, while Hyde fractured his head. Anyway, Hyde returned this round wearing a helmet ala Shaun Hart. Amazingly he was involved in a clash of heads again, this time it wasn't as huge and drastic as in round 5, as Bowden was unlucky enough to have his cheek smashed against Hyde's helmet. Hyde was fine but Bowden looked in bad shape. At first it looked like a poke in the eye, but its been confirmed that its his cheek bone. However reports (when do you trust them?) from the tiger camp say Bowden pulled up well this morning, and they haven't ruled him out of next week's match yet. They'll find out if there's a fracture first. I just hope that he's fine, because:
1) He's been outstanding this year.
2) He's in my AFL.com.au dream team, and has been absolutely brilliant racking up points every week. He's worth about $340 000 in that game.
3) I just love the bloke.
 

FaaipDeOiad

Hall of Fame Member
I think it's fair to say the big surprises this year are Richmonad and Adelaide. With Richardson and Brown firing up forward and a talented coach in Wallace Richmond were always going to be an improved side, but it's the vast improvement of a number of unsighted players in recent times and some youngsters (Tuck, anyone?) that have really lifted them. They're also developing a reliable midfield with experienced players like Coughlan and Johnson leading the way. The questionmark for them is definately in defence where I'm not sure they can match it with the likes of West Coast, St. Kilda and so on... but time will tell.

Adelaide have had a strong core midfield since their flags in '97 and '98 with Ricciuto, McLeod, Goodwin and Edwards leading the way, and with Mattner, Thompson, Burton, Shirley and so on they have plenty of back-up there as well. The real stunner though is the way their defence has functioned. Adelaide have the best defence in the league to date based on points conceded, and it's primarily due to the emergence of Ben Rutten to anchor the backline. So far in the year he has won every one of his contests, with no opponant kicking more than two goals and only Tarrant managing more than 5 marks, and he has taken the likes of Gehrig, Brown, Tarrant, Tredrae, Neitz, Sav and Hall along the way. Alongside him McGregor has continued his improvement at CHB, and Johncock, Basset and Torney have supported him well. There is also amazing depth there, with Hart missing the first few games of the season and Johncock currently out with a broken leg and McGregor being rotated into the forward line, they still look strong back there. Bock came back into the side for little game time against Brisbane, then was shifted back without warning onto Riewoldt on friday night and beat him well.

The obvious weakness is the forward line, with Adelaide struggling to post match-winning scores through Perrie and Welsh. Adelaide will be hoping that McLeod will have some success going forward later in the year, and if McGregor spends some more time forward he will have an impact as well.
 

Jono

Virat Kohli (c)
Here's a task for everyone. Just so this thread doesn't become a thread full of posted results, how about everyone puts on their Nostradamus cap and predicts how the final 8 will turn out?

Here's my prediction for the top 8 as at the end of round 9 (Also have the bottom 8, but that's extremely rough):

West Coast
Geelong
Richmond
Adelaide
St. Kilda
Melbourne
Brisbane
Hawthorn

---
Sydney
Port Adelaide
Western Bulldogs
Fremantle
Kangaroos
Essendon
Carlton
Collingwood

I still believe Brisbane will make the top 8, and I think Port will just miss out along with Sydney (although they could make it instead of Hawthorn). I am hoping the odds for Brisbane for the flag have blown out following their 4th straight home loss. I've been planning on putting money on Brisbane for the flag for ages, but after they beat Essendon they were short odds again. Then they lost to the Bullies, but were still short odds, and after beating Adelaide at AAMI the bet wasn't worth it. However after losing to the mighty Tigers, I think it'll be a nice punt. I'll never count out the Lions, not with that team.

I feel Melbourne are good enough to stay in the 8 and I've got Hawthorn in my 8 purely out of hope. I'd like the Kangaroos to make it but point blank I don't believe they're good enough. You can't rely on Archer, Shannon Grant and Brent Harvey to win you games every week. Wells hasn't stepped up at all this year and the rest aren't anything special. Those three carry that team on their backs, along with Simpson sometimes.

Also wouldn't it be great to see Essendon, Carlton and Collingwood in the bottom 3? Oh I'd love that, I really would!
 

vic_orthdox

Global Moderator
We should keep record of these, and make a competition out of it. 1 point for every team out of position, and whoever has the lowest score wins??

West Coast
Melbourne
Geelong
St. Kilda
Richmond
Adelaide
Brisbane
Sydney
***********
Port Adelaide
Fremantle
Western Bulldogs
Essendon
Hawthorn
Kangaroos
Collingwood
Carlton
 

Jono

Virat Kohli (c)
FaaipDeOiad said:
I think it's fair to say the big surprises this year are Richmonad and Adelaide. With Richardson and Brown firing up forward and a talented coach in Wallace Richmond were always going to be an improved side, but it's the vast improvement of a number of unsighted players in recent times and some youngsters (Tuck, anyone?) that have really lifted them. They're also developing a reliable midfield with experienced players like Coughlan and Johnson leading the way. The questionmark for them is definately in defence where I'm not sure they can match it with the likes of West Coast, St. Kilda and so on... but time will tell.

Adelaide have had a strong core midfield since their flags in '97 and '98 with Ricciuto, McLeod, Goodwin and Edwards leading the way, and with Mattner, Thompson, Burton, Shirley and so on they have plenty of back-up there as well. The real stunner though is the way their defence has functioned. Adelaide have the best defence in the league to date based on points conceded, and it's primarily due to the emergence of Ben Rutten to anchor the backline. So far in the year he has won every one of his contests, with no opponant kicking more than two goals and only Tarrant managing more than 5 marks, and he has taken the likes of Gehrig, Brown, Tarrant, Tredrae, Neitz, Sav and Hall along the way. Alongside him McGregor has continued his improvement at CHB, and Johncock, Basset and Torney have supported him well. There is also amazing depth there, with Hart missing the first few games of the season and Johncock currently out with a broken leg and McGregor being rotated into the forward line, they still look strong back there. Bock came back into the side for little game time against Brisbane, then was shifted back without warning onto Riewoldt on friday night and beat him well.

The obvious weakness is the forward line, with Adelaide struggling to post match-winning scores through Perrie and Welsh. Adelaide will be hoping that McLeod will have some success going forward later in the year, and if McGregor spends some more time forward he will have an impact as well.
I just about agree with everything there. In regards to Richmond, if there is still something to worry about (I think worry is too strong a word, but maybe look out for) its our defence. Gaspar and Kellaway have been absolutely brilliant so far, and Ray Hall, Graham and Newman have done a good job back there as support along with Bowden sweeping from half back. My only worry is the games when we are being smashed in the midfield, like against Geelong and St. Kilda. In those games, Gehrig and Ottens had a field day up forward I believe. What will give me 100% confidence is if our midfield is beaten again (Let's hope it doesn't happen with Coughlan, Tuck and Johnson leading the way) whether our back line can hold strong. They did very well against Brisbane, keeping Bradshaw to one goal and Jonathan Brown to none. Can they do it consistently is obviously the question.

You hit the nail on the head with Adelaide. There are 3 teams in the AFL which need a big strong forward. Adelaide, Hawthorn and the Bulldogs. Add a Jonathan Brown, Warren Tredrea, Matthew Richardson, Barry Hall etc. to any of those teams and they'd be a force to reckon with. Adelaide are the best of those 3 with their absolutely brilliant backline and experienced midfield, but with Perrie missing almost every set shot he has and Welsh off and on, they aren't quite there yet.
 
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Jono

Virat Kohli (c)
vic_orthdox said:
We should keep record of these, and make a competition out of it. 1 point for every team out of position, and whoever has the lowest score wins??
Actually that's quite a good idea. I'll do that.

*Shakes fist at Hawks*

Come on keep on winning then because I've taken a gamble putting you in the 8.
 

FaaipDeOiad

Hall of Fame Member
West Coast
Melbourne
Geelong
Adelaide
St. Kilda
Brisbane
Richmond
Hawthorn
----------------
Sydney
Fremantle
Kangaroos
Port Adelaide
Western Bulldogs
Essendon
Carlton
Collingwood
 

vic_orthdox

Global Moderator
Sorry, one point for each position you are out. e.g. if you say West Coast will finish 1st, and they finish 8th, 8-1 = 7. therefore you get 7 points?
 

vic_orthdox

Global Moderator
Make it the whole ladder. You have until your original post is 24 hours old and you can't edit it anymore, to change it. You cannot make another post to change your side. Only edit it. All entrants must be in by the start of Round 10. And I'll give progress scores at the end of each round. And I might have a few suprises down the track...

How does that sound?

My dad has a similar competition amongst work mates instead of footy tipping. I'm thinking along the lines of a round where you can make 2 direct swaps, e.g. if you have St. Kilda 12th and Collingwood 1st, you can make St. Kilda 1st and Collingwood 12th, but you can't make St. Kilda 1st and then move everyone else down one.
 
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Jono

Virat Kohli (c)
That sounds fine. I won't edit mine, I'll leave it at that and hope that Carlton and Collingwood keep on sucking and that Essendon keep on fading out every last quarter :D
vic_orthdox said:
My dad has a similar competition amongst work mates instead of footy tipping. I'm thinking along the lines of a round where you can make 2 direct swaps, e.g. if you have St. Kilda 12th and Collingwood 1st, you can make St. Kilda 1st and Collingwood 12th, but you can't make St. Kilda 1st and then move everyone else down one.
That works well for me, because if Hawthorn start losing again I can make a direct swap with them for someone. :)

Also vic_orthdox, just a query. In your analysis of the teams you've got Melbourne listed as "not sold on them yet" but have them second on your ladder. Do you think they'll just do well in the home and away season and then fall in September?
 
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Buddhmaster

International Captain
Some nice posts been happening in this thread today. It's been an all round top weekend of footy for me this week.

Geelong
West Coast
St Kilda
Richmond
Melbourne
Fremantle
Sydney
Adelaide


Brisbane
Port
Hawthorn
Bulldogs
Carlton
Kangaroos
Collingwood
Essendon
 

archie mac

International Coach
Sweagles
***** cats
Melbourne
Saints
Richmond
Swans
Crows
Kangas

Port
Freo
Brisbane
Bullys
Essendon
Hawthorn
Magpies
Carlton
 

vic_orthdox

Global Moderator
Jono said:
Also vic_orthdox, just a query. In your analysis of the teams you've got Melbourne listed as "not sold on them yet" but have them second on your ladder. Do you think they'll just do well in the home and away season and then fall in September?
Yeah, I reckon that they have a reasonably easy draw, and the teams that they play twice seem to be a bit weak. But besides that, yeah, I think you've hit the nail on the head for me. Not quite up to it in the big time.
 

cameeel

International Captain
West Coast Eagles
Geelong Cats
Melbourne Demons
St. Kilda Saints
Sydney Swans
Fremantle Dockers
Richmond Tigers
Adelaide Crows
**********************************
Western Bulldogs
Port Adelaide Power
Brisbane Lions
Hawthorn Hawks
North Melbourne Kangaroos
Essendon Bombers
Carlton Blues
Collingwood Magpies
 
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