Yeah have edited.
I still think we could wind up with a bit of competition for 4th though. Australia haven’t convinced me yet. They’ll probably get it but I wouldn’t say it’s done and dusted at this stage. Especially as there are question marks over South Africa chasing….if Pak can win today…
at one stage I thought the top three would be clear cut, current top three, and may still be the case, but aussies are only two points behind saffers and kiwis and on three wins in a row
India shoe-inly must be top four, highly improbable for Sri Lanka or someone else on 4 points to catch them.
So what's left? maybe this will help give an idea, given these are the sides in situ and have to be caught so may as well look at how much of their remaining games they may win, how 'easy' they are (on paper at least, only one of the top three has lost to a non-Test side)
IND : v ENG, v SRL, v SAF, v HOL
SAF : v PAK*, v NZL, v IND, v AFG
NZL : v AUS, v SAF, v PAK, v SRL
AUS : v NZL, v ENG, v AFG, v BAN
*in progress
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aussies ought to beat the last two sides, not that anything is sure if a top nation wants to do an England, Pakistan or South Africa. Next two may decide their prospects of 4th or maybe more.
kiwis may have less of a smooth ride, pretty much beaten the sides who've done little and will probably do little, lost to India and their remaining games are banana skins.
Saffers if they cruise to a win over Pakistan have only Afghans they'd be confident of beating, well they may be confident regardless but let's rephrase to should be favourites, and some, to win
India it's hard to gauge as they've yet to lose and are at home so unless England, Saffers or even Sri Lanka up their game on the day you could see them ending with 8+ wins.
Might not rule Pakistan out if they can claw this game out of the grasp of saffers, could or maybe should beat England and Bangladesh, kiwis less clear cut or likely, take your pick. Sri Lanka have scalped England and done for Holland but would give them 50-50 at best in any other remaining game.
Afghans have SRL, HOL, AUS and SAF, would be some feat for them to get the 3-4 wins they'd likely need to be top four, certainly looking like 10 points may be the least needed. England I'd say crashed and burned more or less at game one, no bowling strength, batting down to six and that isn't firing much either, won't delve into the detail (again) but unlikely the same basic 14 players + called up reserve will suddenly be able to beat India, and Australia, and Pakistan, Holland quite probably and it will be much like 1996 except no QF to get humiliated in