Flem274*
123/5
Starc will be the difference here.
A lot of the guys Burgey named are medium quicks just like those who England have been belting (albeit 28ish not 48ish). Cummins can also be hit around a bit in ODIs. NZ does not lack Scott Boland, Josh Hazlewood or Michael Neser style bowlers (note the word style okay). Pakistan lack...a coherent selection policy and a single blade of grass on their pitches. England have also had pretty good success Bazballing India and SA, who's attacks are running far better than NZ and Pakistan right now.
But no one has a Starc except for India (Bumrah). There is not much of an aggressive option to 150kph inswinging yorkers. McCullum himself used the scoop on Tait and the charge over cover on Johnson to good effect but got caught up in the moment against Starc, and you can set fields to scoops. Also, frankly, the English top order are just not as good as McCullum was at his own game. They don't have his freakish hand eye.
What has also been noticeable is A) lower order bailouts in the 3-0 against NZ 2022. Top order got snapped. B) they still try to sit on bowlers they respect because they know NZ selection is moronic and Pakistan love a motorway.
Root, Brook and Stokes though can win games off their own bats playing Bazball or playing normally. Their success or failure will drive the Ashes result more than Crawley/Duckett/Pope. That will require Root not playing dickhead reverse sweeps to get out for 48.
So imo Australia are slight favourites because they have the ODI GOAT. Anderson/Broad/Robinson have the talent to negate the top order gap as well.
A lot of the guys Burgey named are medium quicks just like those who England have been belting (albeit 28ish not 48ish). Cummins can also be hit around a bit in ODIs. NZ does not lack Scott Boland, Josh Hazlewood or Michael Neser style bowlers (note the word style okay). Pakistan lack...a coherent selection policy and a single blade of grass on their pitches. England have also had pretty good success Bazballing India and SA, who's attacks are running far better than NZ and Pakistan right now.
But no one has a Starc except for India (Bumrah). There is not much of an aggressive option to 150kph inswinging yorkers. McCullum himself used the scoop on Tait and the charge over cover on Johnson to good effect but got caught up in the moment against Starc, and you can set fields to scoops. Also, frankly, the English top order are just not as good as McCullum was at his own game. They don't have his freakish hand eye.
What has also been noticeable is A) lower order bailouts in the 3-0 against NZ 2022. Top order got snapped. B) they still try to sit on bowlers they respect because they know NZ selection is moronic and Pakistan love a motorway.
Root, Brook and Stokes though can win games off their own bats playing Bazball or playing normally. Their success or failure will drive the Ashes result more than Crawley/Duckett/Pope. That will require Root not playing dickhead reverse sweeps to get out for 48.
So imo Australia are slight favourites because they have the ODI GOAT. Anderson/Broad/Robinson have the talent to negate the top order gap as well.