**Official** New Zealand v Australia

[BlackCap_Fan]

How the heck did NZ manage to stop the Aussies getting a lead?

I thought that we'd be lucky to stop them getting 450 with the way they were going.

 

[Zinzan]

If NZ do bat well tomorrow....I think its likely a draw. I can't see Fleming being generous with the declaration

 

[FaaipDeOiad]

It will be a pretty big test for both the New Zealand top order and the Australian bowlers tomorrow. Kasprowicz is playing for his place in the side, and Gillespie will want to return to form. Warne looked pretty good so far in this test, and the pitch will suit him tomorrow, so expect him to occupy one end for most of the day. New Zealand will do well to survive the day in my view, but if they can do that they have a pretty good shot at drawing the game.

 

[Blaze]

It will be a pretty big test for both the New Zealand top order and the Australian bowlers tomorrow. Kasprowicz is playing for his place in the side, and Gillespie will want to return to form. Warne looked pretty good so far in this test, and the pitch will suit him tomorrow, so expect him to occupy one end for most of the day. New Zealand will do well to survive the day in my view, but if they can do that they have a pretty good shot at drawing the game.

I agree. NZ can also win the game from here as well though IMO

 

[FaaipDeOiad]

I agree. NZ can also win the game from here as well though IMO

I can't see how, honestly. Australia won't have much trouble surviving for the small amount of time Fleming will give them. Basically, I can't see Fleming declaring with Australia needing anything less than 4 an over, and probably even that is a bit generous. That will mean he will have to bat an hour into the 5th morning at least, since I can't see New Zealand scoring their runs at a massive rate. I can't see Australia getting bowled out in 2 or 3 sessions by New Zealand, and in fact I find it more plausible that Australia would successfully chase a 4+ per over target.

 

[andyc]

wow. i went away to play soccer in the morning just as gilly came in, and for the whole time i was playing soccer, i was hoping for a big partnership like this.
hating to sound arrogant, i think australia will probably bundle out new zealand for a relatively small total tomorrow. probably 200-250, maybe up to 300-- it looked like warne was bowling well in the first innings, and mcgrath obviously cleaned up, even if half of them were tailenders, and i wouldnt write off a comeback from kasper, either. given that australia is the better team, my money would be on them. but, ive been wrong about the kiwis many times before, and i imagine theyll be pretty confident tomorrow, so who knows.

also, i found it strange that to bowl the last 6 overs of the day, australia used all four bowlers. i guess i can understand warne taking one at the end, but im not quite sure why kasper was given a bowl.

 

[age_master]

will be interesting to see how NZ handle the pressure tomorrow

 

[shaka]

My prediction is they will declare just before lunch on day 5, if possible of course. Well done Vettori, really helped to knock them over, Astle assisted him quite well.

 

[Right arm fast]

hopefully cumming can make more runs and fleming can find some form

 

[marc71178]

This could possibly be because Australian bowlers bowled better therefore received more 50/50 calls. A more fairer analysis is to calculate the percentage of 50/50 decision (admittingly very subjective on the definition of a 50/50 decision) going towards Australia when they are bowling and the amount of decision going towards New Zealand when they are bowling.

But what is defined as a 50/50 call?

 

[shaka]

I think Fleming and Vincent will be the chief run scorers against Australia, in order for them to have a chance of bowling Australia out and therefore win the match.

 

[Retox]

But what is defined as a 50/50 call?

How can a team get more of 50/50 calls? if there really 50/50 then you can only get 50% of them.

 

[Isolator]

50/50 doesn't mean 50%, it means the decision can go either way (ie. there's a 50% chance it could go either way).

EDIT: Basically, what they're saying is that Australia has had more 50/50 decisions going its way rather than against it.

 

[chaminda_00]

Unless one team falls apart with the bat i personally can't see anything else but a draw. I can't see Fleming setting a sporting declaration, if he does declare he will most likely try and bat them out of the game first. Even a target with a 4+ RPO is obtainable with Gilly in the side. Nice to see Vettori take some wickets and Katich score runs.

 

[Isolator]

Draw or loss for NZ. No other possibility... Good thing they managed to stop Gilchurch and Catchit from doing too much damage. I was pretty sure they'd get a sizeable lead.

 

[chaminda_00]

Draw or loss for NZ. No other possibility... Good thing they managed to stop Gilchurch and Catchit from doing too much damage. I was pretty sure they'd get a sizeable lead.

New Zealand can still win the game if Vettori comes of age, and i mean truely comes of age, just ripes through the Australian like their is no tomorrow. But im not sure if the pitch is going enough for that to occur, but u never know.

 

[Retox]

50/50 doesn't mean 50%, it means the decision can go either way (ie. there's a 50% chance it could go either way).

EDIT: Basically, what they're saying is that Australia has had more 50/50 decisions going its way rather than against it.

But then that statement is wrong it is not 50/50 . If theres a chance it goes 50% either way how does Aussie get more?

I think (NZer supporter here) Us none Aussies has to face the facts there the best. THey won't be for ever... Stop making exuses for your team

"Oh noes we would have beat Aussie if so and so happened" It didn't get over it.

 

[FaaipDeOiad]

New Zealand can still win the game if Vettori comes of age, and i mean truely comes of age, just ripes through the Australian like their is no tomorrow. But im not sure if the pitch is going enough for that to occur, but u never know.

Warne looks to be in pretty good touch at the moment, and with the pitch breaking up a bit I can see him destroying New Zealand much easier than I can see Vettori returning the favour.

It's not completely impossible that New Zealand would win mind you, but very unlikely. My tip now would be an Australian win chasing 200 or so.

 

[chaminda_00]

Warne looks to be in pretty good touch at the moment, and with the pitch breaking up a bit I can see him destroying New Zealand much easier than I can see Vettori returning the favour.

It's not completely impossible that New Zealand would win mind you, but very unlikely. My tip now would be an Australian win chasing 200 or so.

Even if that does happen Australia have fallen apart chasing low scores, i think NZ probably have as much chance of winning as Australia but the most likely result is a draw.

 

[anzac]

well done Gilchrist & Katich for the rescue act to save some AUS blushes................IMO AUS are never in trouble with the bat until the time that Gilchrist is back in the pavilion for not much and they are still under 300 on the board...........

the biggest hurdle for the NZL batsmen will be to get thru Day 4 relatively intact & post a 2nd innings in excess of 250.................not because they are facing AUS, but because this is where they have repeatedly failed & lost matches over the past few seasons........

the NZL stats from the commentary team were for the last 10 Tests including the BAN series - 1st innings averages 450ish, 2nd innings 220ish...........IMO both these figures are inflated because of the BAN series, so the real picture is even worse.............

in otherwords they are their own worst enemy at this stage of the match and must get thru this as much as playing the opposition...............

on the plus side there should be some confidence in the top order which will relieve a lot of pressure, and I think that once the batsmen get in the run rate will not be as slow as in their 1st innings..............the question mark over that will be how quickly the pitch deteriorates, but it has not looked too bad as of yet.........