The four semi-finalists are Surrey, Leicestershire, Lancashire and Somerset. Somerset very much the underdogs in that group, although the likely return of Trescothick (Twenty20 average 56.00
) will strengthen them, as will the return of Flintoff for Lancashire.
However, I'd pick Lancashire as the winners from those four. A top 5 of Loye, Flintoff, Law, Symonds, North is the best in the competition, and with hitters like Chapple, the Crooks and Hogg later on they pose a threat right down the order.
Surrey's experience will stand them in good stead, as will their abundance of spinners and the emergence of Tim Murtagh as a more than useful Twenty20 bowler. Ali Brown is still as dangerous as ever when looking to score quickly.
Somerset's main strength is the flamboyance of their batting, with players such as Smith, Blackwell and Hildreth supplying the bulk of their runs. However, Smith will be leaving before Finals Day, and whoever they replace him with will have to be a top-class batsman. The number of bits-and-pieces players in their side seems to have actually been an advantage this year - the middle and lower orders have been chipping in with useful runs from players such as Durston, Gazzard and John Francis, while Smith has always had many bowling options, including the improving Jamie Hildreth, the reliable Keith Parsons and the bizarrely successful left-arm spinners of Ian Blackwell.
Leicestershire are the Twenty20 experts, with Darren Maddy head and shoulders above most in Twenty20 over its short period of existence, and their bowlers have been very tight this year. However, they lack big-hitting batsmen, which may prove a weak point if their bowlers have an off-day and they find themselves chasing 10/11 an over to win.
