Jack's Late Night Theses, numero uno.
Why Brad Hogg is a better Test bowler than Shane Warne.
The one great criticism of Shane Warne is that he has never performed well against the best players of spin, those wristy craftsmen from India. Knowing that this was the chink in his armour, I decided that I may be able to derive the truth from this decades old argument through the respective performances of these bowlers versus the great Indians.
And exploit these figures I did. Now, for the uninformed, Brad Hogg made his debut against India in 1996, when Shane Warne had made his debut 4 years earlier. Now, as we all know, the years from 1990 to 1997 were India's glory years, with Tendulkar, Kambli, Azharuddin, Sidhu, Shastri, young Dravid and an in form Ganguly making them an irrepresible force against slow bowlers. However, after this, clearly India's prowess against spin bowling has worsened, as illustrated by the fact that in Muttiah Muralitharan, widely seen as the greatest bowler ever (except by Australian umpires), averaged 44.14 versus India before 1997, but since then has averaged 19.3 versus the Indian superstars, while Daniel Vettori and Mohammad Rafique have taken 19 and 9 more wickets respectively in the period after 1998, as opposed to their figures against India before this time, therefore displaying that Indian batsman are far less adept to playing spin than what they once were.
Therefore having established that Indian batsman are unable to play spin since the start of 1998, I decided to compare Brad Hogg and Shane Warne's stats versus India in India up to the end of 1997, as this is widely seen (by this commentator anyway) as the truest test for a spinner. Lo and behold, Brad Hogg has taken infinite times the number of wickets that Shane Warne has in India during this time. In fact, showing his complete incompetence, Shane Warne never took a wicket in India pre 1998, therefore making him clearly a worse bowler than Brad Hogg, who at least was able to establish himself a bowling average in India during this period, unlike that plodder Warne. In fact, Warne's figures even put him behind the likes of Mark Waugh, Peter McIntyre and Nathan Haurtitz and on equal footing with such esteemed bowling greats as Justin Langer, WG Grace and Scott Muller, whom all share with Warne the indignation of never having taken an Indian wicket in India.
So in fairness, I decided to include all performances against India before 1998, to help re-establish Warne's fast waning credibility as a bowler of Test standard. Well, my intelligent contemporaries, the news only becomes more shocking. During this period, Shane Warne averages nearly 4 times what Brad Hogg does against the same opponents. It also took Shane Warne, on average, 408 deliveries to take a wicket. This makes Hogg's 69 average and 102 strike rate look Barnes-esque.
Having taken as many wickets as Warne versus India in this period, as well as having done it on the Indians' own backyard, in one quarter of the deliveries, and nearly one quarter of the runs, it therefore becomes fair to estimate that George Bradley Hogg is four times the test bowler that Shane Warne ever has been. This allows us to estimate that if Brad Hogg had've played as many tests as Shane Warne, he would have one quarter the average, and one quarter the strikerate, over the long term. When one allows for the fact that being such a destructive bowler, he would have been allowed to open the bowling becuase of his sheer class, and he would have demolished sides so quickly, we can also say that he would have bowled half of Australia's overs during this time. Therefore, I roughly estimate that Brad Hogg would have 2000 test wickets if he had've been given the opportunities that he rightly deserved, and that world cricket would become so boring and monotonous that he would have been banned from partaking in any cricket anywhere in the world by this time, as the ICC would have ruled that once any player takes 2000 test wickets, he becomes too good for the game.
Therefore, these are the figures Brad Hogg has been robbed of.
Matches
123
Overs
4916.4
Runs
12760
Wickets
2000
Average
6.38
Economy Rate
2.56
Strike Rate
14.74
Question me at your peril.