smash84
The Tiger King
That's actually a good way to think about it. I wonder how the probabilities change if you change the cutoff score to 20 instead of 30? 30 Would be a great score on a green top with ATG bowlers having a go at it.Bradman's average is twice that of Tendulkar, but his failure rate isn't half of tendulkar.
Assuming a definition of getting out on <30 as a failure, Bradman failed about ~35% of the time, Tendulkar failed ~45% of the time. A team with two tendulkars will have both of them failing ~ 20% of the time (0.45 * 0.45), so they wouldn't fail as much.
Bradman's average being twice is a consequence of him scoring a lot more when he did get set (so if he does get to 30, he averages ~160, compared to Tendulkar's ~100) , but the problem with that is that beyond a certain point more runs are meaningless, additionally high scores tend to be correlated with pitches where batting is easier, making these runs not as important (again).
tldr - Two Tendulkar's will fail less often than one Bradman, they will sometimes score 140 runs combined compared to Bradman's 200 but that wouldn't be as meaningful as the failures.