Some final thoughts I actually believe before I miss most of tomorrow's play.
It's strange, I was more pesssimistic going into the UAE and England tours, especially England, but other kiwi fans were very optimistic about that tour. Anderson and Broad on home turf worried me a lot more than Australia do now, because England pre-series had/have a much more powerful looking batting unit to back up the bowling.
I'm confident. In 2011 NZ took a test from them despite being a team who loses to the West Indies and almost Zimbabwe. Now NZ are a lot better. Australia gain an arm and a leg at home, but they're beatable, especially this new look team. If NZ were hosting a more experienced Australia with only Williamson and Taylor as proven test batsmen everyone including myself would predict 3-0 to Australia, so really New Zealand should win this. I appear alone on that though. Fair enough.
New Zealand could do worse than trolling Australia into a macho pissing contest and then proceeding with Plan A. Short bowling will land a few hits and if Johnson regains his home Ashes form then no one in the world can stand against him, but this New Zealand team doesn't play like most of the Old Zealands'. They're more comfortable against spin and pace and bounce than full swing bowling, which is why I feared for them in England.
The quietness about Southee makes me happy since I'm predicting a big series for him. Boult has improved with the old ball and the UAE was the beginning of him as an all round bowler, but Southee entered the top five pace bowlers in the world because he evolved from a pure swing bowler to a bowler who used the channel, the crease and his variations to get his wickets and make the big middle order breakthroughs during overs 40-70. He's a bit wayward since the lol7fer but Australia suits him more than it does Boult.
On that Smith bloke, if anyone is to consistently get him early I think it could be Dougeh. Dougeh struggles with being slightly too short and wide sometimes, but to Smith that's the perfect channel. If Doug has that problem again then I hope it gains that cheeky bonus.
If I had to choose one key batsman for Australia to get rid of then it's Watling. The man is a God. He did what he could with the rabble in South Africa, he worked two miracles at the Basin 12 months apart, drove the West Indies mad and set up the win against England with his second innings ton. Williamson, McCullum etc got the headlines (Mark Nicholas wrote an entire feature on a McCullum 50 against England...) but Watling was the driving force. His innings have changed almost every series he has played in since taking the gloves. It doesn't matter if you nick off Kane, Ross, Baz, Latham, Gup, Neesh....Watling will create a miracle. Australia have to keep him to single digit scores 6 out of 6.
Khawaja has to show up. Burns is "allowed" to be tidy and see off the new ball for starts, but Khawaja's test career has been Daniel Flynn without Flynn's ability to last 100 balls. If he's going to be at #3 then he can't be leaving Australia at 2 for nothing because no matter how many pictures of Steve Smith people post he is not going to score 200 6 times in a row. Voges needs runs too, but I rate him so I think he will make some contributions. Maybe not enough to stave off the daggers for players over 35 but given a chance he will support Warner and Smith.
I think the newer Australian batsmen should be given license to go after Craig at the start of his spell. If Craig gets in two quiet overs he usually bowls really well but if he doesn't it's long hops galore. That's a leaky valve they've got to force open.
I think Brisbane will be what we'd expect from these two sides - a pace bowling and expansive batting dominated contest. I'm writing the WACA off for New Zealand because of not only Johnson doing it on his own but also Lyon getting some help and Craig being murdered when he drops short.
Speaking of dropping short, Craig, Starc and Bracewell all have this habit and whoever minimises that crap the most will get a big helping hand since it will release all the pressure built up by the world class bowlers.
At Adelaide I think we'll all get trolled after getting hard ons for hooping swing. Craig will finish the series like he finishes every test series (with a massive bag) and Lyon will get a haul too with a Guptill ton (during the day ofc).
Australia - don't make it a pissing contest, don't sledge Taylor, Williamson or Watling because you'll only make them better, kill Watling with a beamer and get after Craig.
New Zealand - don't let the spuds score runs, be really nice to Australia to make them uncomfortable and crap, and beamer Johnson before the WACA.
2-1 New Zealand. Might get on 3-0 NZ at the TAB.