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The FINAL- South Africa vs India (D), Kensington Oval, Barbados-- June 29th

Arachnodouche

International Captain
Another unpopular opinion I have : Majority of the sportsmen aren’t very bright people. That is why they took this profession instead of academics .
That's a very desi generalization to make. The corollary would be that all mere fans must be balding, potbellied, and carry a tiffin hanging from their shoulder to office every morning, hence why they settled for posting online about the game instead of actually playing it.
 

TT Boy

Hall of Fame Member
In all honesty, I don't see SA handling Kuldeep and Axar very well, not to mention the perennial threat from Bumrah. From their perspective, it absolutely has to be a sub-150 game chasing and even that will probably become attritional.
Last time Kuldeep faced South Africa in late 2023 he got 5 for nothing in less than 18 balls. South Africa was rolled out for less than 100 and lost by over 100. That was an India B level like side playing away from home. South Africa haven’t taken many white ball games off India in years and nearly 9 years since a series win in T20Is. Going to be very tough, it isn’t a good match up for them like England is, but if they bowl first and the wicket is underprepared, they have a real chance. I think batting first is a risk to them as if the wicket is flat, their batsman hasn’t played on anything true since the IPL or domestically, they won't go hard as a result, and if it does something, you want the first use of that.
 

number11

State Regular
Sri Lankan cricket prides itself on the quality of their schools?
Oh in graduate school we had a fantastic chap in our class who went to Royal College in Colombo. He was always regaling us with stories of his school days: derby cricket games against x, rugby clashes against y. We are still (loosely) in touch - he works in the city now. I became a teacher. Life eh?
 

SillyCowCorner1

Request Your Custom Title Now!
Oh in graduate school we had a fantastic chap in our class who went to Royal College in Colombo. He was always regaling us with stories of his school days: derby cricket games against x, rugby clashes against y. We are still (loosely) in touch - he works in the city now. I became a teacher. Life eh?
True. Different roads
 

silentstriker

The Wheel is Forever
Another unpopular opinion I have : Majority of the sportsmen aren’t very bright people. That is why they took this profession instead of academics .
I think at the top level, to sustain a professional career, you have to be pretty intelligent. It's not all reflexes. There's a lot you have to process, analyse and implement. They may not have paid attention in school, which may mean they may appear less educated than others, but that doesn't mean they are less intelligent. And frequently more. And believe me, there are a lot of idiots (both academically and otherwise) in professions that you would expect everyone to be intelligent - I work with them daily. Some people are really good at one or two specific things, which can help them get very ahead in a profession, even one that you typically associate with high academic achievement (rote memorization with minimal understanding for example, or being good at schmoozing/socially).
 
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smash84

The Tiger King
India favorites in general and it's hard to see them messing up this time. Although that seemed to have been the case last year as well.

Their bowling attack is incredible, and as long as the batsmen can put up a half decent total, one would expect them to win.
 

centurymaker

Cricketer Of The Year
A lot of Indian fans including myself didn't want Rohit and Kohli in the T20 team, and up until the Australia game the fans were right. Plus Rohit and Kohli had been in terrible form this wc. But then Rohit happened to pull out two of his best T20 knocks ever.

Without Rohit's change in form, India loses to Australia and possibly England too, both of whom were the strongest T20 sides coming into the wc. This is how fickle T20 cricket is. One player can turn everything around. Or can be the main reason for your team's downfall.
 

centurymaker

Cricketer Of The Year
No, it won't.


No, it wasn't.
ODI final was pretty close to 50-50.
Australia had played two ODI series in India in 2023, winning the 1st 2-1 and losing the 2nd 1-2. In recent years in the ODI bilaterals, they had won more series in India than India themselves!

They had won 8 matches in a row leading upto the final. They had a long batting lineup with Starc and Cummins in the lower order who could also bat. They had proper World Class bowlers. They had already lost to India once in the world cup (without Head) though on a complete turner, beating them twice a whole different prospect. For Australia, India is home away from home. Their players spend several months a year in India playing in the IPL or against India. They were absolutely familiar and accustomed to the conditions.

You think it was going to be that easy to beat that Aus side TWICE in the wc just because India were at home? (which is like Aus's 2nd home) And looking at the two teams that played in the final, Australia were just as strong as India tbh.

So India were never more than 55-45 favourites. It was just "media and public hype" that had elevated them to the moon when they were still on Earth and had their strongest rival waiting to avenge the early group stage defeat. You could even argue it was 50-50 as India had weight of expectations while Australia could play relatively freely, thanks to the expectations heaped on the Indian team by the public & media.
 
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silentstriker

The Wheel is Forever
ODI final was pretty close to 50-50.
Australia had played two ODI series in India in 2023, winning the 1st 2-1 and losing the 2nd 1-2. In recent years in the ODI bilaterals, they had won more series in India than India themselves!

They had won 8 matches in a row leading upto the final. They had a long batting lineup with Starc and Cummins in the lower order who could also bat. They had proper World Class bowlers. They had already lost to India once in the world cup (without Head) though on a complete turner, beating them twice a whole different prospect. For Australia, India is home away from home. Their players spend several months a year in India playing in the IPL or against India. They were absolutely familiar and accustomed to the conditions.

You think it was going to be that easy to beat that Aus side TWICE in the wc just because India were at home? (which is like Aus's 2nd home) And looking at the two teams that played in the final, Australia were just as strong as India tbh.

So India were never more than 55-45 favourites at best. It was just "media and public hype" that had elevated them to the moon when they were still on Earth and had their strongest rival waiting to avenge the early group stage defeat. You could even argue it was 50-50 as India had weight of expectations while Australia could play relatively freely, thanks to the expectations heaped on the Indian team by the public & media.
That’s great but you are objectively wrong based on all the oddsmakers. If you have prospective knowledge like this, you can make millions.


This is retrospective justification.
 

centurymaker

Cricketer Of The Year
That’s great but you are objectively wrong based on all the oddsmakers. If you have prospective knowledge like this, you can make millions.


This is retrospective justification.
I have already explained why odds with regards to India are like that. So I won't go into that. When India are winning, they are the best ever and if they are winning big, there are undefeatable. This is how the Indian public and media sentiment works.

Even now for this t20 WC, just because of India's big wins against over Aus and Eng, people are calling them the best team coming into the tournament, clear tournament favourites. However If a couple of things "don't click" for India in the final, things may go bad pretty quickly. Because that's all it takes for a team to go from winning to losing in limited overs format. It's not a test match where you have time to make a recovery.
 

centurymaker

Cricketer Of The Year
I don't think Dube will be benched :( His incompetence has been brushed under the carpet due to the comfortable win.

Weather forecast has improved and we'll have a game on Saturday itself.
 

centurymaker

Cricketer Of The Year
That’s great but you are objectively wrong based on all the oddsmakers. If you have prospective knowledge like this, you can make millions.


This is retrospective justification.
Just because odds are a little skewed doesn't mean one should gamble on a team when the matchup is tight like that.

Suppose odds are India 2/3 and Aus 3/2 i.e. more value for money on Aus. Still it's a proper gamble proper risk to place money on either team as your own chances are close to 50%.

So technically you can't make millions like that.
 

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