Through much of the college season, it seemed that John Wall was the only guy worthy of being taken with the top pick. Some people even called this draft a "draft of one." The early calls could ultimately be accurate. But drafts rarely go as expected.
While this may indeed turn out to be a draft of one, Evan Turner could end up going No. 1 overall.
Though he is, at best, the second-best prospect in this draft, Turner may a better fit overall for a number of teams that could end up drafting in the top spot. And he's a good enough player that he won't be a bad choice. I'm not ignoring the chances that one of these teams would make a trade to open up room for Wall, but they won't just dump guys to do it. That said, consider the following possibilities:
Minnesota Timberwolves
The T-Wolves drafted Ricky Rubio and Jonny Flynn at the No. 5 and 6 spots last year. Flynn has been OK this year and looks to be at least good enough as a scoring point to get 15 to 25 minutes a game in the second unit. Or he could improve enough to earn the full-time starting position. However, he'll have to battle Rubio, who has been terrific at quarterbacking Barcelona, his team in Spain, to a final-eight appearance in the Euroleague. (That series is about to start.) In the ACB, Barcelona is in first place with a 25-2 mark. In all, Rubio is 39-3 as the starting point guard in the two best leagues in the world after the NBA. And he's 19.
Sure, the Wolves could draft Wall, play Flynn behind him, trade Ramon Sessions (whom they signed as a free agent last summer) and move Rubio, too. Maybe those deals would work out well. Or they could draft Turner, who's a perfect fit at the 2 next to Flynn and Corey Brewer, their lottery pick three years ago who is currently playing out of position at the 2. Turner's passing skills fit perfectly in the triangle offense, and help complement Flynn's nose for scoring. He and Brewer could be excellent wingmates for Rubio as well.
Sacramento Kings
The Kings could certainly take Wall and move Tyreke Evans over to the 2, or even slide him to small forward. Many NBA people believe Evans will end up there anyway. But the Kings have stuck by their story that Evans is a point guard. If they believe that, taking Wall means backing off that claim.
More important than titles, however, is functionality, and this is where there would be problems.
Instead of thinking of 1s and 2s as guards, think of primary ball handlers. Both Evans and Wall are ball handlers, and they must function as ball handlers in order to take advantage of their talent. Could Evans learn to be effective while handling the ball less? Sure, but it's risky, and why would the Kings risk mitigating Evans' talent after he's already proved to be an elite scorer?
Taking Turner is the easier play. With a hole at the 2 spot and Evans as a score-first point guard, there's a need for playmaking from other positions. In fact, I think this would be a no-brainer pick if Turner were a better perimeter shooter. It's hard to win in this league when your starting 2 guards cannot shoot better than 35 percent from 3, and Evans is at only 25 percent now. But we can expect this to improve, just as we can project Turner to become a better shooter down the road. Lastly, Evans and Turner together would give the Kings a huge backcourt, something Paul Westphal (a coach who loves matchups) would use like a hammer.
Golden State Warriors
A team that has Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry simply cannot draft Wall and expect him to help. Turner certainly has a chance to be a good small forward, especially on a team that runs the way this team does, so he could fit the current roster without any issues. But there is also the thought that if the Warriors could trade Ellis, they would. In that scenario, would they be better off with a backcourt of Wall and Curry, or Curry and Turner?
It's not cut-and-dried, because Curry has a great chance to be a special NBA player. Already a top shooter, he has the potential to be the best 3-point shooter and free-throw shooter in the league. He's proving to be an excellent lead guard as well, with some execs suggesting that he is the smartest young player in the NBA. He's a rare talent, and he's got the game to bring more out of Turner.
Think of it this way: With his intelligence, passing skills and shooting talent, Curry has a solid chance to be Steve Nash-like. Moving him off the ball to accommodate Wall does not make a lot of sense.
Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers drafted Jrue Holiday, himself a former prep national player of the year, and he's starting now as the youngest player in the NBA. Does Wall have a higher ceiling than Holiday? Probably, though Holiday will be an elite defender and is proving to be better on offense earlier in his career than was expected. There will be an argument made to go for Turner, especially if they can move Andre Iguodala.
Utah Jazz (Jazz own rights to Knicks' pick)
Deron Williams is their best player. Any questions? Oh, and they need a 2 or 3 who can move without the ball.
Chicago Bulls
They have Derrick Rose -- and a need for a starting 2 guard.
Could all of these teams, each with a chance to get the first overall pick, make some trades to clear room for Wall to come in and excel? Of course. As it stands today, though, Turner has done enough to warrant a real opportunity to be the top pick for these franchises. Now, if he can lead OSU to the Final Four or, better yet, a national title, the chance that he will go No. 1 becomes even greater.