*Official* English Football Season 2014-15

[GIMH]

I mean I have no problem with cabinet enjoying that stuff but it's not for me.

 

[HeathDavisSpeed]

Anyway, Colchester are doing better than I expected thus far. How's every one else in the lower reaches or nether regions of the league structure going?

 

[Jarquis]

Hate to smash your dreams kid, but it is. Southampton have performed well and are 3rd in the league. Thats all that really matters at the moment. Sure someone can crunch figures and say 'so and so are performing 2nd or 3rd best' but its kind of irrelevant really, as at best its a educated guess at whats going to come, and can be messed up by countless other things, both within that team and others. All the prizes are awarded for where you finish up in the table, and if you're 3rd after 20% of the season gone, then I'd say you've made a good start and have a fair shout at being up there at the end.

As you brought Arsenal into it, because I know you hate people posting off topic, I probably did call Arsenal for the league last year, I can't remember. However thats not any stats crunching or performance modeling of a serious degree, its one mans opinion, half educated by watching football and having a guess at whats going to happen over the next few games. And it was about as accurate no doubt.

I'm sure Statistical modelling is all well and good, but for me, footballs played on a pitch, not a calculator, and I'll enjoy watching it rather than needlessly fretting over the performance curves and potentials of teams. At the end of the year the league table will tell me the truth of it, whether people think its fair or not doesn't matter as its the table that decides.

Which is a darn slight more than looking at the table at the current stage and extrapolating it over 38 games

 

[Tom Halsey]

Nah I have often argued against over-reliance on statistics/performance models/whatever in here but, especially when analysing teams rather than individual players, some of them clearly have some relevance. The league table is clearly not the be all and end all until the season is actually over. It has manifestly happened in the past that a side has been far higher or lower in the table early in the season than their actual level due to the ease or otherwise of their early fixtures, Arsenal last year are probably a decent example albeit one that lasted a bit longer than just eight games.

I'm sure none of you were loudly proclaiming Hull the 3rd best side in the country when they were 3rd after 8 games of the 2008/9 season.

 

[Cabinet96]

I mean I have no problem with cabinet enjoying that stuff but it's not for me.

Thing is it isn't any different from just hearing where Paul Merson thinks Southampton are going to finish based on what he's seen on Soccer Saturday (which I also enjoy). All predictions are flawed, whether it's some geek with a calculator or some guy at the pub who's had one too many. And in the grand scheme they're pretty much pointless unless you do a lot of betting (the people who make such models do). **** happens, there are things you can't account for, and you get no points for being good alone. But that doesn't mean I don't want to know how people think certain clubs are doing and where they'll finish in the league. I find it fun to speculate and use the opinions/predictions I've seen to be most accurate and logical as the best indicators. With Southampton I've hardly seen them play this season bar on MotD, and don't really know anything about the players they brought in or have promoted after their summer exodus, but some very smart people on my twitter feed told me they were really good then they won a game 8-0, so I thought it worth making the point their perhaps a contender while everyone else's clear flaws get exposed in the mainstream every week.

 

[cpr]

Which is a darn slight more than looking at the table at the current stage and extrapolating it over 38 games

I don't remember the point where I said I was doing that. I was looking at the table as the best performance indicator, showing Southampton, like the method Cabinet uses, are the 3rd best team in the league at the moment. Nowhere did I say they are going to finish 3rd. In fact I think I'm pretty clear that I'll let the season play out and judge it based on where teams lie after 38 games. I'm going to bet its not the same as they are now.

 

[cpr]

Thing is it isn't any different from just hearing where Paul Merson thinks Southampton are going to finish based on what he's seen on Soccer Saturday (which I also enjoy). All predictions are flawed, whether it's some geek with a calculator or some guy at the pub who's had one too many. And in the grand scheme they're pretty much pointless unless you do a lot of betting (the people who make such models do). **** happens, there are things you can't account for, and you get no points for being good alone. But that doesn't mean I don't want to know how people think certain clubs are doing and where they'll finish in the league. I find it fun to speculate and use the opinions/predictions I've seen to be most accurate and logical as the best indicators. With Southampton I've hardly seen them play this season bar on MotD, and don't really know anything about the players they brought in or have promoted after their summer exodus, but some very smart people on my twitter feed told me they were really good then they won a game 8-0, so I thought it worth making the point their perhaps a contender while everyone else's clear flaws get exposed in the mainstream every week.

This might explain the copious amounts I seem to lose on football bets!

 

[cpr]

Anyway, Colchester are doing better than I expected thus far. How's every one else in the lower reaches or nether regions of the league structure going?

Morecambe doing quite well considering they were tipped for relegation, and they actually are utter turd. If they keep it up my annual trip to the Globe might actually end up with us watching some of the footie.....

 

[Ikki]

One of the best indicators of where a team will end up is the amount/quality of shots they're taking. Right now Southampton aren't fluking it, they are playing like a true top 4 side.

 

[Cabinet96]

Inter-Napoli is very QPR-Liverpool. Napoli went ahead at 78 minutes, 2-2 now with a couple of minutes left.

 

[Jarquis]

The worrying thing is that Arsenal haven't been for many of the last few seasons (and nor had United for a number before last year) and there is always a time where what should happen, eventually does happen.

 

[Cabinet96]

One of the best indicators of where a team will end up is the amount/quality of shots they're taking. Right now Southampton aren't fluking it, they are playing like a true top 4 side.

I think one of the things people don't realise is how random the results of shots are. If you create two chances and score twice then that's absolutely no indication you'll be able to do it again. If you take 25 and get 15 on target, that's a good indication that you'll probably score two most weeks as shot generation is a much more repeatable measure than shot conversion.

GIMH, that's why I was crying about injustice yesterday on twitter.

 

[Furball]

How ****e is Simon Mignolet, seriously.

 

[Pothas]

Are they actually getting Valdes or not?

 

[Nate]

Let's hope so! Gosh.

 

[Uppercut]

I mean I have no problem with cabinet enjoying that stuff but it's not for me.

I don't bother with it either, but at the same time there's no point pretending the models aren't more accurate predictors than the league table just because they bore us. CPR's posts earlier were a bit obtuse. Sort of like he was deliberately missing cab's point.

 

[cpr]

I see his point, and his final post on the subject kinda highlights the difference between us, he likes to use these models and gauge predictions/opinions from them. I like to watch games and enjoy the football thats on offer that day, and in the grand scheme of things the league table will tell me who's been the best at the end of the year.I find the overanalysis that goes on with football nowadays terribly boring, perhaps because I care for football for approximately 90 minutes when needed - but for me its entertainment, so i watch it, and have the odd casual conversation when bored (I've been bored approx 10k times over the last decade by the looks of it.)

Alas this thread, IMO, has become less about the enjoyment of the game, and more overanalysis at times. I'd much rather watch video's of City winning the league and seeing grown men cry (thanks Smitteh. ****). I guess given its a forum of cricket fans - a game that does benefit from in depth analysis of form and stats - its inevitable.

Of course I could feel totally different to everyone else....

 

[duffer]

I see his point, and his final post on the subject kinda highlights the difference between us, he likes to use these models and gauge predictions/opinions from them. I like to watch games and enjoy the football thats on offer that day, and in the grand scheme of things the league table will tell me who's been the best at the end of the year.I find the overanalysis that goes on with football nowadays terribly boring, perhaps because I care for football for approximately 90 minutes when needed - but for me its entertainment, so i watch it, and have the odd casual conversation when bored (I've been bored approx 10k times over the last decade by the looks of it.)

Alas this thread, IMO, has become less about the enjoyment of the game, and more overanalysis at times. I'd much rather watch video's of City winning the league and seeing grown men cry (thanks Smitteh. ****). I guess given its a forum of cricket fans - a game that does benefit from in depth analysis of form and stats - its inevitable.

Of course I could feel totally different to everyone else....

Not just here but all over the internet. Too much information, everyone being more of an expert(heh) than a supporter. It's why I'm enjoying watching teams that aren't Arsenal, because I can just sit back and not care as much as I do when we play. Hell, I've even watched and enjoyed A-League and ISL games more than any Arsenal game for a long time.

Ah well, NBA season starts in 9 days, if you want over analysis, become a basketball fan.

 

[wpdavid]

nyway onto current matters, how the **** can Colin moan about that sending off. He really is a total ****-womble.

The ref probably viewed it as an act of kindness, so far out of his depth was Delaney.

And yeah, there shouldn't be any complaints from us. Both yellow cards 100% justified, and the 2nd absolutely brain-dead in the circumstances.

Not that silly moaning is our manager's greatest crime, as they all do that.

 

[GIMH]

So stats guys, is there much out there about off the ball stuff?