howardj said:
This series will be a real grind- tough test cricket. On form, one would be inclined to tip England. However, since readmission to the Test Match arena, South Africa have never lost to anybody at home, bar Australia.
Indeed, before these recent subcontinent series, when was the last time they lost to anyone other than Australia?
When, indeed, was the last time they lost a home Test to anyone other than Australia?
Since 1998\99 (I don't really remember before then) South Africa have played 30 authentic home Tests (plus one that would have been a Test but for the Match-Referee being barred, plus 2 games against Bangladesh, which as we all know count for virtually nothing). They have won (including the "Unofficial Test - so out of 31) 22 of them, drawn 6 (all bar 1 [Kingsmead v England 1999\2000] of which they went pretty close to winning, losing-out thanks to rain on 2 occasions), and lost 3 (1 of which was a contrived finish so really counts for little. The other 2, of course, were against Australia, and 1 could easily have gone the other way).
That is not a bad record!
Of course, their relative ineptitude has really started since WC2003 (coinciding with their largely wretched ODI form), since when they've (well, beaten Bangladesh, which counts for virtually nothing) drawn a series they could quite easily have won 4-0 against England, lost in Pakistan, beaten West Indies at home (which really isn't much of an achievement these days), drawn in New Zealand, then of course lost twice, in Sri Lanka and India.
All depends on which way you look at it. Losing in the subcontinent is something many teams have done, and all right it was inept - with hindsight - to fail to beat New Zealand. But can't any team have 1 bad series? Failing to beat England, meanwhile, owed a lot to bad luck with the toss at Trent Bridge and an astonishing English comeback at The Oval. Yet the toss at Headingley was equally crucial, and this time their fortune was pulled level, and the Oval performance was really much more South African ineptitude than English brilliance.
See? There really is no way of telling just how good or poor this South African side really are, for certain. With England we can sum-up with a little less guesswork - they beat two poor New Zealand and West Indies sides, which was nonetheless a thoroughly professional achievement that few England sides have managed in the recent past. They also won 3-0 in the Caribbean, something no side has ever done before in 70 years.
It will be an intreguing series - it has all the makings of the sort of series where you'd say whoever gets on top first could shatter the opposition and make play-catch-up a neccessity, something we know too well is incredibly difficult in cricket. Yet so often between these sides we've seen series of twisting, turning cricket with momentum reduced to something close to fantasy. As soon as one side has appeared to be on top, things have changed dramatically.
This has all the makings of yet another South Africa-England classic. Yet (once again) we've seen series that have the makings of a classic turn-out woeful and one-sided before. We wait with intregue.