***Official*** Australia in England (The Ashes)

[FaaipDeOiad]

lol - I don't recall that being accepted as a valid explanation by many for Strauss not being given yesterday

Well it's a bit different in that the Strauss nick was far more obvious and Rudi should have seen it, but it's the same basic problem. An edge, the appeal isn't very strong and the umpire doesn't give it a serious look.

 

[Slow Love™]

2/300 at stumps would be nice.

Bat until tea tomorrow on a nice sunny day, make 550 accelerating towards the end, then declare and take 5 in an extended session leading up until stumps.



Really though, if Australia have a slight lead and are all out by lunch tomorrow, that's fine. Australia will need to bowl brilliantly to win anyway, so it doesn't matter so much what the score is like, because if England bat a day and make 350 it's game over anyway.

A 150 lead isn't out of the question, though. Imagine if, like Hayden, Gilly comes to the party for the first time...

 

[Slow Love™]

They're taking the light, so that'll be stumps.

 

[Jamee999]

They're coming off for some reason

 

[FaaipDeOiad]

Well that's that. 165 runs in the day, pretty disappointing to have the weather cut up the day so much, but Australia still did fairly well. They need to score quickly tomorrow to advance the game. Hopefully the rain stays away for the next two days and we can get a result.

 

[Tom Halsey]

I think at the moment (assuming there's no more play), A draw is 80% chance, 15% Australia, 5% England.

 

[FaaipDeOiad]

A 150 lead isn't out of the question, though. Imagine if, like Hayden, Gilly comes to the party for the first time...

Well yeah. Australia can easily score 150 a session if things are going their way, even without Gilly. Even if Australia can't do that for two full sessions, say a session and a half would be 225 runs, which is 500 and a lead of 130 with plenty of time remaining.

Have to worry what will happen if we get a mini-session due to weather tomorrow morning though and Australia only reach level pegging by midway through the day.

 

[greg]

Well yeah. Australia can easily score 150 a session if things are going their way, even without Gilly. Even if Australia can't do that for two full sessions, say a session and a half would be 225 runs, which is 500 and a lead of 130 with plenty of time remaining.

Have to worry what will happen if we get a mini-session due to weather tomorrow morning though and Australia only reach level pegging by midway through the day.

If England bowl like they did today Australia will not get a big lead scoring at 5 an over. 277-2 is not a reflection of how England have bowled

 

[Knopfler]

I think at the moment (assuming there's no more play), A draw is 80% chance, 15% Australia, 5% England.

Not sure about the weather, but my guess it is ....

draw: 70%
Aus: 28%
England: 2% (they wont give Australia any sniff at a win)

 

[social]

Good day for Aus despite the rain.

Wicket will only get worse and there is some inconsistent bounce.

Amazing how much more Warne gets out of a wicket than Giles.

Great knock by Hayden.

Score at 4 runs an over tomorrow and pressure is really on Eng

 

[social]

I think at the moment (assuming there's no more play), A draw is 80% chance, 15% Australia, 5% England.

Fine couple of days and Eng are right up against it.

This wicket still offers something. Fortunately, Hayden's finally come to the party and Eng havent bowled that well and have had no luck.

 

[FaaipDeOiad]

If England bowl like they did today Australia will not get a big lead scoring at 5 an over. 277-2 is not a reflection of how England have bowled

Quite true - it is a reflection of how Australia have batted, plus a fairly significant dropped catch off Langer. England's bowling has been tight and excellent, and none of the bowlers except Harmison on occasions has given an inch. Hayden and Langer just played superbly.

However, if tomorrow is bright and sunny and England have to bowl consistently and aren't taking wickets, you'll see the run rate pick up, plus obviously Gilchrist and Clarke are to come who are the quickest scorers Australia have, and Hayden is sharp as well.

 

[Tom Halsey]

Well the umps havent helped to be honest (I'm not complaining, about time you had some luck) so you should be 4 down plus you can take off the runs Ponting got after he got out (not trying to start the debate again here, but to me that was as out as can be when using the super slow-mo).

 

[FaaipDeOiad]

Well the umps havent helped to be honest (I'm not complaining, about time you had some luck) so you should be 4 down plus you can take off the runs Ponting got after he got out (not trying to start the debate again here, but to me that was as out as can be when using the super slow-mo).

Yeah, the luck hasn't been going England's way this innings. There was one lbw that was definately out I think, a couple which might have been given on a different day even though they probably weren't, and also the touch-and-go bat-pad one.

Still, Australia have obviously had long periods in the series where they bowled well and didn't get any wickets, so it goes both ways. I think Australia have a strong platform now, and it conditions are good for two days (ie no further interruptions and 196 overs), Australia are in the box seat to win the game. I'd call it about 45/50/5 for an Australian win/draw/England win if the weather stays good, but if another session or more is lost I think the chance of a draw is up around the 80 mark.

England might knock over Australia by lunch tomorrow of course, so we can only wait and see. I just hope we get some good cricket in.

 

[greg]

Quite true - it is a reflection of how Australia have batted, plus a fairly significant dropped catch off Langer. England's bowling has been tight and excellent, and none of the bowlers except Harmison on occasions has given an inch. Hayden and Langer just played superbly.

However, if tomorrow is bright and sunny and England have to bowl consistently and aren't taking wickets, you'll see the run rate pick up, plus obviously Gilchrist and Clarke are to come who are the quickest scorers Australia have, and Hayden is sharp as well.

Yeah but it's strange (or not?) how often a batting team can look totally comfortable against high quality bowling scoring at 3-3.5 runs an over, but totally fall apart when trying to step it up.

Although the South Africans are worse at this than most

http://uk.cricinfo.com/db/ARCHIVE/2004-05/ENG_IN_RSA/SCORECARDS/ENG_RSA_T3_02-06JAN2005.html

 

[Barney Rubble]

Yeah but it's strange (or not?) how often a batting team can look totally comfortable against high quality bowling scoring at 3-3.5 runs an over, but totally fall apart when trying to step it up.

Although the South Africans are worse at this than most

http://uk.cricinfo.com/db/ARCHIVE/2004-05/ENG_IN_RSA/SCORECARDS/ENG_RSA_T3_02-06JAN2005.html

Boje as a pinch-hitter at no6? Why bother?

 

[Barney Rubble]

Tomorrow's weather forecast (and this site has been deadly accurate all through the match so far):

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/cricket_oval.asp

 

[Slow Love™]

Yeah but it's strange (or not?) how often a batting team can look totally comfortable against high quality bowling scoring at 3-3.5 runs an over, but totally fall apart when trying to step it up.

Although the South Africans are worse at this than most

http://uk.cricinfo.com/db/ARCHIVE/2004-05/ENG_IN_RSA/SCORECARDS/ENG_RSA_T3_02-06JAN2005.html

Kallis doesn't even try.

 

[Slow Love™]

I think I give it 20/70/10 on a breakdown of Aussie win/draw/English win.

And if the Ashes leave our grasp, I think pictures will tell a far better story than words ever could:

 

[chalky]

Australia go off for bad light again although a bit more understandable than yesterday (just lost a wicket only five overs to go etc) is it still negative captaincy/coaching? (I noticed Macgill on the pitch with instructions from the drssing room just before they went off). I think it is and doubt very much if a Steve Waugh side would have came off yesterday or toady in same situation. Anyway this could come back to bite Australia on the ar@e if they have England 8 or 9 down, or are just a few runs short of victory, on Monady evening.

Looking at the weather forcast (which doesn't look good for tommorrow afternoon) and the state of game if I wsa Australia I would want to bat all day tommorrow. No point in declaring earlier as England will be straight off for bad light given the chance and more overs will be lost. Better for Australia to be batting late in the day so they can control the game in that respect (though judging by recent evidence they may come off themselvs).