**Official** 2nd Test @Adelaide, 6th-10th December

[silentstriker]

Hmm. I think as fans we tend to underrate our side's chances. Perhaps neutrals are best to decide the merits of both sides. Look, I hope you're right. To the point I don't want to blow my money. (sheepish grin).

Hence the bookies come in. Not completely objective, as their goal is to even out bets on both sides, but usually its a very reasonable approximation of the truth - but of course like many things, it'll be a bell curve where you'll have outlier odds. But if you looked at history of teams who were 60% favorites to win by odds, I would be surprised if their actual winning percentage isn't close to 60% (+/- 5%, lets say).

 

[the big bambino]

Hence the bookies come in. Not completely objective, as their goal is to even out bets on both sides, but usually its a very reasonable approximation of the truth - but of course like many things, it'll be a bell curve where you'll have outlier odds. But if you looked at history of teams who were 60% favorites to win by odds, I would be surprised if their actual winning percentage isn't close to 60% (+/- 5%, lets say).

Well I hope your right but I can't help thinking this is not a market whose outcome will be influenced by the fans punting on it. The only people who will influence the outcome are the 22 players on the field. markets can be distorted by inaccurate assessments and sentiments. I am suspicious the odds favouring Australia are based on something superficially meaningful such as our past success in pink ball tests. (You could get a similar sentiment distorting the odds based on our good record at Perth too: A sentiment without basis as it turned out). A more realistic prediction can be made on the form of the teams and their levels of preparation. In that aspect India have the clear edge. They also have players returning and we've lost Haze ... Based on that I am surprised with the market showing Aus favourites.

I think I might place a bet after all. I'll either be pleasantly surprised by an Australian win or have my disappointment compensated with cash.

 

[silentstriker]

Jasprit Bumrah

Bumrah’s FC record is actually worse than Paris

 

[Anil]

This is in our bag already. Will be a mere formality.

Watch out, your bag has a hole in it…

 

[silentstriker]

Main thing I worry about is Indias batting lineup under lights. I think india need to maximize their bowling abilities for these conditions. I think Deep could take advantage so I’m worried if he misses out like I think he will.

 

[silentstriker]

Maybe even Deep for Siraj??? I don’t know. Seems crazy honestly but he can swing more than Siraj. And that way you could keep Reddy for his batting and a few overs.

 

[centurymaker]

Expected batting order-

Rahul
Jaiswal
Gill
Kohli
Rohit
Pant
Sundar (Jadeja looking unlikely)
Reddy
Rana (Akash unlikely)
Bumrah
Siraj

 

[CricAddict]

Maybe even Deep for Siraj??? I don’t know. Seems crazy honestly but he can swing more than Siraj. And that way you could keep Reddy for his batting and a few overs.

Agreed. Deep for Siraj will be great. I will go Bumrah, Deep, Rana and Reddy with Jadeja to support. Deep and Reddy also make the batting line-up deep and ready for any challenges that the Aussie pace battery can pose. Rana and Bumrah can make them **** and be a pain in the ass with their batting at 10 and 11 too.

Aussies are under more pressure to win the test than India. So, a deeper batting line-up will be the best way to go. No loss in terms of bowling too.

 

[centurymaker]

Rohit appears to be the worst Indian batter bar none. He has regressed tremendously. His only hope of getting runs is down the order against an older ball and tiring bowlers. If he wasn't captain he'd be getting close to being dropped.

On paper Gill + Rohit seems a clear upgrade on Jurel + Devdutt, but Rohit is a walking wicket so it's a lot closer.

 

[CricAddict]

Rohit appears to be the worst Indian batter bar none. He has regressed tremendously. His only hope of getting runs is down the order against an older ball and tiring bowlers. If he wasn't captain he'd be getting close to being dropped.

On paper Rohit + Gill seems a clear upgrade on Jurel + Devdutt, but Rohit is a walking wicket so it's a lot closer.

Devdutt to me looks a walking wicket too on Aussie pitches, especially in a pink ball test, so Rohit over Devdutt is not much of a loss. But agreed that both are walking wickets.

I rate Jurel and Gill equally too. Both are good. Would have preferred Rohit to not turn up and Jurel to play in his spot.

 

[centurymaker]

Agreed. Deep for Siraj will be great. I will go Bumrah, Deep, Rana and Reddy with Jadeja to support. Deep and Reddy also make the batting line-up deep and ready for any challenges that the Aussie pace battery can pose. Bumrah can be a pain in the ass with his batting at 11 too.

Aussies are under more pressure to win the test than India. So, a deeper batting line-up will be the best way to go. No loss in terms of bowling too.

Siraj was really good in Perth. Easily India's 2nd best bowler last match and someone with experience of bowling well in Australian conditions. It would be outrageous to drop him for Akash. Plus Siraj was the pick of the bowlers yesterday. Akash and Rana both looked so wayward and Rana fluked 3 of his wickets.

It's a toss up between Rana and Akash. Harshit has more pace and bounce while Akash can be more consistent. If there's already Bumrah and Siraj, they may wanna stick with someone like Rana to hurry the batsmen although Akashdeep could do well too. A hard decision but I don't think TM will make changes to the pace attack unless they notice something in the nets.

Reddy is the one who needs to go. He feasted on an older ball against Marsh, Lyon and Labuchagne. If he has to face the frontline bowlers next game, I expect him to fail plus his bowling is as good as useless. Pick Jadeja if your concern is batting plus he can hold up an end like Lyon and bowl dry. Basically play both Sundar and Jadeja.

 

[Arachnödouche2.0]

Be harsh to drop Siraj. He bowled well in Perth and Adelaide should suit him even more.

 

[Xix2565]

I would rather have Bumrah/Siraj/Akash over Bumrah/Siraj/Harshit as far as the main pacers are concerned. Akash's a lot more tested and doesn't seem to leak too many runs. Reddy is fine IMO, though I'd kick the batters out and play someone like Ashwin/Jadeja instead along with Reddy, so take it as you will.

 

[rama_v]

Reddy is in the side purely because they want some more batting depth. To some extent true of Rana also. The team management is terrified of another top 6 gone for zilch situation, so they pad the list with guys who can hold a bat. To be fair this worked in the first game, if india folded for 100 they'd have lost. They'll stick with him I feel.

 

[ankitj]

Be harsh to drop Siraj. He bowled well in Perth and Adelaide should suit him even more.

Siraj also did better than the rest in the practice match.

 

[Daemon]

Hard to say with Rana/Akash, I’d just take a call based on how they’re going in the nets with the pink ball.

 

[andruid]

Expected batting order-

Rahul
Jaiswal
Gill
Kohli
Rohit
Pant
Sundar (Jadeja looking unlikely)
Reddy
Rana (Akash unlikely)
Bumrah
Siraj

He's not the answer? 🥹

 

[Shri]

Would have preferred Rohit to not turn up and Jurel to play in his spot.

our bowling and fielding tactics will be worse. i guarantee it

aus would be doing us a favour if they break his fingers with bouncers

 

[honestbharani]

Yeah, as much as I hate it, I dont think GG and Rohit intend to change the side much, if at all. I would like to see Ash play in front of Washy simply because he is the better bowler and has been successful in Adelaide and in pink ball games in the past. Looks like Gill is properly fit, although if he cant field in the slips, it will be a risk playing him as we have very few others who can field there. But assuming they are all fit, this is probably the best we can hope for -

Jaiswal
Rohit (c)
Gill
Virat
Pant (wk)
Rahul
NKR
Ashwin
Harshit
Bumrah (vc)
Siraj

Though, knowing the team, they would probably have Washy playing at 7 and ahead of Ash. What I would like to see, though...

Jaiswal
Rahul
Gill/Rohit
Virat
Pant
Jadeja
NKR
Ashwin
Rana
Bumrah
Siraj

 

[centurymaker]

Rohit is potentially the new Dhoni, watch India lose 3-1 or even 4-1 from here. Have a pretty bad feeling about the rest of the series.. And it's mainly because of this lazy entitled **** captaining the side.

Anyway I was looking at the scorecard from the last outing in Adelaide in 2020 and noticed how drastically the side has changed. Only Kohli and Bumrah remain from that Pink ball Test.