4th thread - who's going to win?

[Pothas]

Not as much as England get overrated by the media in England if they win a Test or two.

Maybe, but then we are also the worst team ever if we lose a couple.

When people talk about Australia it is always about how Starc and Johnson are going to destroy England. The Starc thing is purely based on the World Cup, and then really we have no idea if Johnson is going to be any good in England this time around. If Harris is fit and Johnson is anything like he was in the last ashes then Australia will win, but I think it is unlikely that both those things will happen.

 

[flibbertyjibber]

England to use home advantage and win. If we lose then we can use the excuse that it came 12 months too soon for such a new side.

A few months ago I thought we had a chance, now I think we have a bloody good chance and that is because Moores has gone.

 

[Lillian Thomson]

Australia are going to win. But aside from that why have two threads about the 2005 series been moved into this sub forum?

 

[wpdavid]

Even allowing for the above few posts, I do think the difference in the bowling is hugely in Australia's favour, and that's before you consider Warner, Smith and Clarke arguably being the best three batsmen on view.

I'm not remotely interested in Australia's failings in UAE. If they were good enough to win in SA, they should be much too strong for us.

However, as FJ indicated, at least I can now believe that the England side is gradually heading in the right direction again, almost however this summer pans out.

 

[Justo]

I think it'll be a good competitive series with Australia edging it. I think the fortunes of both sides rest with Broad and Anderson (the loss of Swann will be one of the biggest differences between this and the last English Ashes tour). That's not to say that Ali is terrible but Australian bats mostly struggle against spin when they get bogged down and Ali tends to give away a few freebies.

 

[Lillian Thomson]

The England side is wafer thin on proven Test class performers and one or two with past records are mis-firing.

 

[Riggins]

Some of these player vs player analyses are staggering.

 

[Gob]

Rhino harris is critical for australia's success. If he plays all five tests aus would win.

 

[Flem274*]

God I hope Marsh/Watson and Ballance both remain at #3 so we can have a "who will score less runs?" pol

 

[Spark]

Maybe, but then we are also the worst team ever if we lose a couple.

When people talk about Australia it is always about how Starc and Johnson are going to destroy England. The Starc thing is purely based on the World Cup, and then really we have no idea if Johnson is going to be any good in England this time around. If Harris is fit and Johnson is anything like he was in the last ashes then Australia will win, but I think it is unlikely that both those things will happen.

Yeah that's definitely true as well. Probably worth just not really taking them very seriously tbh.

I think Johnson will be okay. Not amazing, but okay. Haze the real dark horse here.

 

[Dan]

AWTA. Hazlewood could be seriously crucial here.

 

[Furball]

Like I said in the road to thread, I'm getting more confident. I don't want to predict anything though. I predicted we'd win in Australia 18 months ago.

Australia were obviously going to win the series 18 months ago. The selection was utterly shamboloc and something just didn't feel right, and as soon as day 2 in Brisbane happened you just knew it would be 5-0.

I don't know about now though. England isn't always the easiest place to bowl well in, and I just don't think Johnson will have any sort of effect. I also still think there's question marks over the Australian batting. Less so than 2 years ago where it was frankly useless, but it's still very dependent on 3 players. If a player as bad as Watson still makes the top 6, you've got issues.

 

[cpr]

1-1. With lots of days lost to rain.

 

[Tangles]

Australia were obviously going to win the series 18 months ago. The selection was utterly shamboloc and something just didn't feel right, and as soon as day 2 in Brisbane happened you just knew it would be 5-0.

I don't know about now though. England isn't always the easiest place to bowl well in, and I just don't think Johnson will have any sort of effect. I also still think there's question marks over the Australian batting. Less so than 2 years ago where it was frankly useless, but it's still very dependent on 3 players. If a player as bad as Watson still makes the top 6, you've got issues.

So it's Warner, Clarke and TPC vs Ballance, Bell and Root. The England batting heavily relies on them. Bowling is similar as Harris and Anderson are both heavily relied on. I think our other bowlers are more consistent but I'll give you Haze is unknown on English pitches right now. Clarkes captaincy and managing of the bowling could be a crucial difference.

 

[Swingpanzee]

If Ryan Harish and Josh (hindi pronuciation) Hazlewood are in form then I'm backing Australia.

I think it's gonna be quite a close series, so probably 2-1 Australia.

 

[cpr]

I've called 1-1, but I can see it being 2-1 in the Aussies favour. Really lack confidence in Stokes as the 4th seamer. He goes for too many and takes too few. If Ali can have a summer like last then it's not an issue, but thats a big ask. Can see an attacking Aussie batting line-up sending Stokes reeling.

 

[wpdavid]

Ali's success against India last summer is one of life's great mysteries, even allowing for it being in the second half of the season.

And all the talk of Anderson ignores the fact that he posed no real threat for 4 of the 5 tests last time here, and is two more years past his best now.

I just don't really see how England will take 10 wickets very often.

 

[GIMH]

Don't agree at all on Anderson. He clearly around 2012/13 wasn't quite the bowler he had been, but has been a lot more impressive since the last away Ashes.

He says. No idea if the stats bear it out.

 

[Lillian Thomson]

England have been exposed with bat and ball by New Zealand. Even Broad and Anderson are incapable of bowling two balls on a good length when they're under attack.

 

[wpdavid]

Don't agree at all on Anderson. He clearly around 2012/13 wasn't quite the bowler he had been, but has been a lot more impressive since the last away Ashes.

He says. No idea if the stats bear it out.

I'm with you on not checking the stats, but from memory:
- poor at home to SL
- did well at home to India
- did OK in WI, with one outstanding performance
- hasn't done enough at home to NZ

I really don't think Aus will be losing sleep.