Anyone want to put their reputation on the line with a prediction of the ladder next year?
1. Geelong
2. Collingwood
3. Hawks
4. Saints
5. Brisbane
6. Bulldogs
7. Adelaide
8. West Coast
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9. Carlton
10. Sydney
11. Essendon
12. North Melbourne
13. Fremantle
14. Port Adelaide
15. Melbourne
16. Richmond
I think Geelong still have what it takes for one more year, and they usually handle injuries quite well. St Kilda on the other hand, remain to be seen whether they are the real deal without a dream run of health for their best players. I think Collingwood will be improvers based on their off-season recruits, but I won't put them down for the flag given the record they have for capitulation in GFs. I think the Hawks will be up there again fit and firing after a proper preseason and hopefully less injuries.
Brisbane were hard to place because they've been the talking point of the off-season and everyone expects big things of them with Voss' ring-ins, but to me all the talent in the world doesn't prove anything until they work together on the field. If Brown and Fev can stay out of each other's way though five could be too low, especially with the midfield options they will have to deliver it to the big blokes. With all the recruits it's hard to work out a best 22 for these guys, so I really don't know what to expect.
The Bulldogs at 6 seems a bit counter-intuitive based on their fairly successful last few campaigns and the fact they have recruited a genuine lead-up forward in Hall, but I think a few teams have played a good game of catch-up on them and it's going to be a real fight for top 4 spots next year.
I couldn't really have Adelaide any lower than 7 because they are a very good side and the way Craig sends his young blokes to develop in the SANFL there's almost certainly a couple of gems ready to make an impact next year. Losing Otten will hurt off HB and in the midfield but it's probably not enough to impact their season markedly.
My picks for 8-12 are what I see as the next tier of teams and is sort of more based on hope rather than analysis. I can really only see room for one of these five teams in the top 8, and based on last season you'd expect that to be Carlton, but I've put them in for 9th, (and am really hoping they slide a lot further than that). West Coast at 8 would be a bolter but I think they're on the verge of making Subi a fortress again, and with the away voodoo broken they might even be able to sneak 2-4 wins on the road. North Melbourne I think have gone about their rebuild in style and in saying that, 12th is perhaps too low, but I just don't know which team I could put them above. The same goes for Sydney - I think they're rebuilding well but I just don't know where they fit in.
Port and Freo are Port and Freo. They get to sit in the naughty corner until they prove they can play with the big boys.
Finally, I won't be surprised if Melbourne get right off the bottom last year. I wouldn't forecast a finish any higher than 11th or 12th but they've had enough spoonage to last them a while and it's time the talent they've been accruing over the last few years starts to mature.
Richmond are just ****.