WTC 2025 Final : Qualifying scenario

[Molehill]

Yeah it's a joke. The over rate thing especially.

It also shouldn't be every 2 years. Far too frequent, should be every 4 or even 5 years to make it more meaningful, and ideally allow a full home and away cycle to give everyone an even chance.

Finally the team on top should host it. India finishing on top then getting forced to play against a SENA team in England is clearly unfair

Not often we agree, but spot on sister!!

 

[Sunil1z]

So , I did a rough calculation. If IND wins against NZ by 2-0 margin then it will be IND vs AUS final unless SL draws test series in SA and beats Aus 2-0 at home or beat SA 2-0 away and draws 1-1 against Aus at home .

SA also have a chance if they win atleast 4 out of 6 Tests and lose nothing which is possible against Bangladesh,SL and PAK

 

[Qlder]

So , I did a rough calculation. If IND wins against NZ by 2-0 margin then it will be IND vs AUS final unless SL draws test series in SA and beats Aus 2-0 at home or beat SA 2-0 away and draws 1-1 against Aus at home .

SA also have a chance if they win atleast 4 out of 6 Tests and lose nothing which is possible against Bangladesh,SL and PAK

Does that include Australia beating India 4-0 in Aussie?

 

[Molehill]

Does that include Australia beating India 4-0 in Aussie?

I was gonna say, if Aus lost to India then it would put SL right in with a chance.

 

[capt_Luffy]

So , I did a rough calculation. If IND wins against NZ by 2-0 margin then it will be IND vs AUS final unless SL draws test series in SA and beats Aus 2-0 at home or beat SA 2-0 away and draws 1-1 against Aus at home .

SA also have a chance if they win atleast 4 out of 6 Tests and lose nothing which is possible against Bangladesh,SL and PAK

I mean, doesn't the BGT result matters at all? India winning 5-nil and Australia vice versa will have the same outcome??

 

[Sunil1z]

Does that include Australia beating India 4-0 in Aussie?

Yes , if India wins atleast 2-0 with NZ ( 3 match Test series) then IND’s performance in BG trophy won’t matter unless SL wins 3 of their 4 games ( vs SA and AUS ) or SA win atleast 4 Test ( vs SL, PAK and BAN ) and remaining 2 tests are atleast draw .

 

[Sunil1z]

I mean, doesn't the BGT result matters at all? India winning 5-nil and Australia vice versa will have the same outcome??

Let’s be realistic. IND aren’t winning 5-0 in BG trophy. So SA is the only country with a realistic chance to remove IND or AUS from the final .

 

[capt_Luffy]

Let’s be realistic. IND aren’t winning 5-0 in BG trophy. So SA is the only country with a realistic chance to remove IND or AUS from the final .

What if like if India wins 3-1 ?

 

[Qlder]

Let’s be realistic. IND aren’t winning 5-0 in BG trophy. So SA is the only country with a realistic chance to remove IND or AUS from the final .

So you've done a pre-determined BGT analysis rather than a pure mathematical WTC one then

 

[Sunil1z]

So you've done a pre-determined BGT analysis rather than a pure mathematical WTC one then

From a mathematical pov both IND and AUS can be out .

Say NZ beats IND 1-0 and BG trophy is 2-2 draw .
And AUS loses 2-0 to SL . SA draws 1-1 against SL and wins 4-0 against PAK and BAN . In this case both IND and AUS would be eliminated

 

[capt_Luffy]

From a mathematical pov both IND and AUS can be out .

Say NZ beats IND 1-0 and BG trophy is 2-2 draw .
And AUS loses 2-0 to SL . SA draws 1-1 against SL and wins 4-0 against PAK and BAN . In this case both IND and AUS would be eliminated

Wait a minute..... So if India gets whitewashed in BGT, they might not make it??

 

[Sunil1z]

Wait a minute..... So if India gets whitewashed in BGT, they might not make it??

Yes mathematically it is still not sure .

 

[Thala_0710]

Let’s be realistic. IND aren’t winning 5-0 in BG trophy. So SA is the only country with a realistic chance to remove IND or AUS from the final .

Surely SL still have a chance if IND do reasonably well in the BGT. I haven't crunched the numbers but it's what seems likely to me seeing the current table

 

[Sunil1z]

Surely SL still have a chance if IND do reasonably well in the BGT. I haven't crunched the numbers but it's what seems likely to me seeing the current table

Yes if they beat AUS 1-0 at home and draw 1-1 in SA and hope IND beat AUS 3-2 or 2-1

 

[Fuller Pilch]

So , I did a rough calculation. If IND wins against NZ by 2-0 margin then it will be IND vs AUS final unless SL draws test series in SA and beats Aus 2-0 at home or beat SA 2-0 away and draws 1-1 against Aus at home .

SA also have a chance if they win atleast 4 out of 6 Tests and lose nothing which is possible against Bangladesh,SL and PAK

Looking very good for SL. They have a much better batting lineup than SA so if Ashitha Fernando bowls well in SA conditions I think they'll make it.

 

[Molehill]

Surely SL still have a chance if IND do reasonably well in the BGT. I haven't crunched the numbers but it's what seems likely to me seeing the current table

Not to mention that given the series is in Aus and a lot of overs will be bowled by seamers, then there's every chance of slow over rate penalties too.

I'm not saying this competition is stupid, but a reminder that England were penalised huge amounts by a rule that no longer exists (in matches that ended in results).

 

[Sunil1z]

Not to mention that given the series is in Aus and a lot of overs will be bowled by seamers, then there's every chance of slow over rate penalties too.

I'm not saying this competition is stupid, but a reminder that England were penalised huge amounts by a rule that no longer exists (in matches that ended in results).

This is very valid point . But still I believe IND vs AUS is 80% confirmed unless one of these teams have a spectacular meltdown

 

[Fuller Pilch]

Looking very good for SL. They have a much better batting lineup than SA so if A****ha Fernando bowls well in SA conditions I think they'll make it.

I was trying to work out what set off the censor then deducted that I must've put an extra 'h' in Asitha.

 

[Molehill]

If SL were to win a Test in SA, then it would mean Aus would have to win at least 2 Tests against India to finish above them.

Wait a minute..... So if India gets whitewashed in BGT, they might not make it??

Assuming they win at least one Test against NZ, then I reckon they can lose 5-0 in the BGT and still make it.

 

[Sunil1z]

Looking very good for SL. They have a much better batting lineup than SA so if A****ha Fernando bowls well in SA conditions I think they'll make it.

Their bigger challenge would be to defeat AUS 2-0 because I believe Lyon is far bigger threat than any Kiwi spinner .