Are you really dense? You came up with some bizarre argument about every cricket team, if looked at "currently" being equivalent at this moment in time because none of them are playing "at this moment in time". So I clarified for your benefit so that you could appreciate what is pretty obvious to everyone else that when we talk about one team "currently" being better than another, we mean that if their first choice teams, as they would be chosen at this moment in time, were to meet in a match at this moment in time, then our choice for the better team would probably win (maybe over a five match series, or whatever).
Bizzare ?
Question : do you have any understanding or idea of an actual definition of current ? Do you even fully understand what it means ? Strictly speaking, current is undefinable because it exists at an infinitesimally small ( theoretical physics-wise, infinitely small) moment of time - before that it is past and beyond that it is future.
Have you ever done dy/dx in your life and understood what exactly you were doing ?
As per your argument - 'currently will win' it is a firm negetive.
When you are determining the probable outcome of a future scenario ( or a hypothetical scenario), you are modelling probabilistically- be it mathematically or instinctively ( what you call 'knowing the game'). And inorder to model probabilistically you need a sample space of occured events to draw a patternistic conclusion.
You are doing it instinctively while i am doing it mathematically. The only difference is, your instinctive definition is far more overbloated than the reality, simply because instincts are often prey to emotions rather than reason.
You might go all hollywood on me but let me tell you one thing that is known as a fact - nobody has been a great decision-maker relying purely on instinct but a lot of people have been great decision makers relying purely on logic ( Alexander the great and Chinggis Khan are two notable mentions).
Statistics can't tell you, for example, whether Damien Martyn or Adam Gilchrist are currently just in poor form, or whether they have been seriously exposed by an attack the like of which they haven't faced before or in recent years anyway. A judgement must be made, and this subjective judgement will then form the basis of any arguments which might arise on here.
Statistics can tell you, however, whether Gilly or Martyn is more likely to come out of a slump over Freddie or Ganguly over a similar constraints period.
Equally current form and the evidence of your own eyes must form part of this assessment to balance the defects in using statistics alone.
There is no defect in the statistics. The defect lies in how you are defining the word 'current' and having its projection in the hypothetical.
I give you stock market idexes as an example. At any given time, the index is either higher or lower than its previous value( last day's) and over a short span( say 5 days) there is a portion of the curve that is completely different from a longer span ( say 2 years). Your evaluation based on current (5 days) is largely irrelevant to an evaluation based on the longer span(2 years). You are almost never right by using current and almost never wrong ( barring unforeseen events) using established trend for that period.
Should you wish to argue that this English team hasnt been around for 7 years and thus stats from seven years ago are irrelevant, i would agree. Same with how i would agree that India in the early 70s were irrelevant in their overall performance in the sixties. But then, one immediately comes to the conclusion that the sample points present for England currently or India from the early 70s(when compared to the 60s) leave a lot to be desired and thus their performance over a longer period ( in England's case, i have said for the next 3-4 years) will determine their value.
Which is precisely what i said from the first post- England have to prove a LOT to be considered a good team and not just a bunch of upstarts performing well for a season or two and fading into nothingness.