Roughly I reckon this is the squad which the selectors will take in starting XI.
Hughes
Katich
Ponting (c)
Clarke
M. Hussey
North
Haddin
Johnson
Lee
Clark
Siddle
Symonds
McDonald
Hilfenhaus
McGain
Manou.
There are a few things I would like to see in this squad. however. For starters, you can't tell me Brad Hodge isn't in the best 7 batsmen in Australia and doesn't deserve to be on the trip, but seemingly his cards have been marked and he has missed the boat IMO. Not convinced there is a lot of love between him and Punter from what I've heard.
Symonds as reserve batsman is an interesting one - I think he might just edge out Watson for that spot but it depends what he does on the drink between now and then. Ponting has a lot of sway over the side that he gets and he will be pushing for Roy if he is in a decent state - that is a huge if though at the moment I reckon. If not, Watson tours, but that also depends on how he comes back from his injury - his bowling was coming good but it will take time to get it back on track. Plus, his batting hasn't looked too adaptable at Test level.
I don't think Rogers will be named in the squad but I fully expect him to be called up if there is an injury to an opening bat - he will be captaining Derbyshire anyway, so there isn't a heck of a lot of point picking him unless he is going to be the reserve batsman as he will already be in England anyway, and I don't see him filling a middle order role. Katich could bump down the order, but he's made a pretty good fist of opening and I wouldn't change that just yet.
Stuart Clark is a must - he will fill the breach on containing bowler, someone who we missed until McDonald stepped up and did a job, but obviously there is a huge difference in class between the two as strike options in particular.
Brett Lee will get picked, even though I don't nessesarially think he should be. As a Test bowler who's been around for 10 years now, he's probably struggled for 7 of them at that level - I'd be prepared to argue his bumper summer in 2007/08 was the exception rather than the norm. There is also no way he should bat ahead of Johnson if he plays.
Bryce McGain deserves selection IMO - I just really hope he can get a short-term county gig before the tour to get some good quality bowling in. He's pretty comfortably the best spinner we've got even though he had a shocker of EPIC proportions in the 3rd Test vs South Africa. To me, he looked really short of a gallop - he was landing some ok, but he just looked a bit tentative, the follow through wasn't there and he wasn't getting much body into it, hence no fizz. That's pretty natural coming back from the injury he had, he just needs some bowling between now and then and I'm confident we can squeeze 18 months out of him in the hope that someone else might come along and step up (Jon Holland and Steve Smith look a chance to step up in that sort of timeframe IMO). Nathan Hauritz was servicable and is an option if Stuart Clark doesn't tour as a containing option, but he's best served in the one day squad I reckon. Can't see him taking a bagful at any time soon. Probably a poor mans Brad Hogg type of thing. Jason Krejza is little better than first class standard and won't tour anywhere in the world that isn't the sub continent so I don't think he is really in the frame.
Hilfenhaus has Bollinger covered for the reserve fast bowlers spot. Bollinger looks like a good domestic bowler but not much more than that for mine. Some bowlers can do the job at domestic level and step up into Test cricket pretty comfortably (eg. Siddle), for others it looks like a bridge too far (think Jo Angel). I think that might be his lot I'm afraid.
I'd like to see Graham Manou get taken as the reserve keeper if they take one, and I also wouldn't be too upset to hear Michael Klinger's name when the squad is named, but as highly as I rate him, he's been around 10 years and only really had 1 bumper summer. Another huge summer and he will be really close, but I can't see him getting picked for now. I'd be happy to see Callum Ferguson in the frame to tour but I don't think he will either, but watch for him over the next few seasons to emerge as a genuine Test contender.
Also a cosmetic thing, but I'd like to see Michael Clarke step up to number 4 and Mike Hussey to drop down to 5. To be honest, I think Hussey is a player on the slide now a bit, and although he might squeeze out some gutsy runs over the next 12 months, I can't see him going much further than that before players like Ferguson and George Bailey bash the door down.