Pool B - South Africa, Ireland, Scotland, Tonga, Romania

[Tom Flint]

I get that and as the try just showed the maul is a high percentage option.
I just see so many lesser teams losing there line out when they are right on the try line anyway.

 

[ripper868]

I get that and as the try just showed the maul is a high percentage option.
I just see so many lesser teams losing there line out when they are right on the try line anyway.

See Australia v Wales when score read 10-6

 

[Furball]

Dunno how true this is, but apparently in the unlikely scenario where Scotland are winning by 16-20 points with both sides having scored 4 or more tries, Ireland would be better off letting Scotland score another try.

 

[Howe_zat]

Dunno how true this is, but apparently in the unlikely scenario where Scotland are winning by 16-20 points with both sides having scored 4 or more tries, Ireland would be better off letting Scotland score another try.

That's true. If a three-way tie on points is settled by points difference because of all 3 sides on 1 win and loss against each other, the winner is decided on points difference but 2nd/3rd is still determined by head-to-head.
When Scotland are up by 16, and both have a try bonus point to make it 15 points all, the points differences for SA, Scotland and Ireland respectively are 117, 113 and 106. South Africa top the group and Ireland go out on head to head against Scotland. But if Scotland are up by 21, then the points differences become Scotland 118, SA 117 and Ireland 101. Scotland top the group and Ireland then get through over SA because they beat them.

An equally weird one: Suppose Scotland are doing amazingly and winning a high scoring game by 28+, and Ireland are on 3 tries. Then Scotland are on 15 table points and have the best points difference but can't top the group due to having lost to SA. But they could let Ireland score a fourth try to gift them a bonus point, in which case points difference now matters and Scotland top the group while South Africa go from 1st to 3rd.

 

[RossTaylorsBox]

OK this has to happen now

 

[Bahnz]

Tbf, would Scotland really want to top the group and face the AB's - a team they've never beaten and who are a similar side in terms of strengths and weaknesses, but just a bit better across the board? Having said that, there is the lolz of tipping SA out in the first round, so yeah, they probably would.

 

[Quaggas]

 

[ripper868]

It's an extremely unlikely situation. Last time Scotlad scored 4 tries against Ireland was 2007 in rwc warm up matches. Last time they beat Ireland was 2017.

I expect it to be a good game, but I don't see a world where both teams score 4 tries and Scotland win by the margin needed, as even that would need Scotland to score closer to 6 tries I think.

It's purely just a shootout between Scotland and Ireland imo, where Scotland need to find a way to win by more than 7 and not let Ireland score 4 tries.

 

[Kenneth Viljoen]

Tbf, would Scotland really want to top the group and face the AB's - a team they've never beaten and who are a similar side in terms of strengths and weaknesses, but just a bit better across the board? Having said that, there is the lolz of tipping SA out in the first round, so yeah, they probably would.

You get the Host nation France or The All Blacks, not much of a choice just got to make it through and hope for the best.

 

[Furball]

Tbf, would Scotland really want to top the group and face the AB's - a team they've never beaten and who are a similar side in terms of strengths and weaknesses, but just a bit better across the board? Having said that, there is the lolz of tipping SA out in the first round, so yeah, they probably would.

I'd rather face New Zealand than France in France.

 

[Uppercut]

Yeah France were quite clearly better in the game between them. It’s not by a big margin but I would still definitely prefer to play NZ.

 

[Howe_zat]

It's an extremely unlikely situation. Last time Scotlad scored 4 tries against Ireland was 2007 in rwc warm up matches. Last time they beat Ireland was 2017.

I expect it to be a good game, but I don't see a world where both teams score 4 tries and Scotland win by the margin needed, as even that would need Scotland to score closer to 6 tries I think.

It's purely just a shootout between Scotland and Ireland imo, where Scotland need to find a way to win by more than 7 and not let Ireland score 4 tries.

Yeah this is definitely true, I just posted these scenarios because it's interesting for me and because, unlikely as it is, it kinda shows off why head-to-head is a bad tie breaker in deciding anything that isn't a group winner or wooden spoon.

If you use head to head to differ between two sides in the middle of the group, you are rewarding results against the rivals, but because everyone plays everyone once that means you can't reward one game without punishing another. So you effectively punish results against the best side. And since with a small number of games you can have a role in who is scored as the best side by letting them score against you, it can create bad incentives.

Rugby has better tie breakers than most due to bonus points etc, so they don't need to care, but I still might

 

[ripper868]

Tie-Breaker should just be a 3-way, 5 pint boat race at a pre-determined hotel - each team sends 5 representatives, 2 forwards, 2 backs and the head coach.

Between South Africa, Scotland and Ireland, that would also have every chance of being a dead heat.

 

[Kenneth Viljoen]

Tie-Breaker should just be a 3-way, 5 pint boat race at a pre-determined hotel - each team sends 5 representatives, 2 forwards, 2 backs and the head coach.

Between South Africa, Scotland and Ireland, that would also have every chance of being a dead heat.

SA would never agree to that , they would probably want a 4-1 split

 

[Ali TT]

Yeah this is definitely true, I just posted these scenarios because it's interesting for me and because, unlikely as it is, it kinda shows off why head-to-head is a bad tie breaker in deciding anything that isn't a group winner or wooden spoon.

If you use head to head to differ between two sides in the middle of the group, you are rewarding results against the rivals, but because everyone plays everyone once that means you can't reward one game without punishing another. So you effectively punish results against the best side. And since with a small number of games you can have a role in who is scored as the best side by letting them score against you, it can create bad incentives.

Rugby has better tie breakers than most due to bonus points etc, so they don't need to care, but I still might

I don't quite follow your second paragraph but I think in the case of a multiple team tie, the head to head should extend across the games between the tied sides and not use the results from other matches. It would be a bit farcical to me if it got down to a few points here and there based upon how much the three sides thrashed Romania and Tonga.

Or just go back to the last cricket world cup and do boundary count back.

There's really no perfect tiebreaker though.

 

[Furball]

I don't quite follow your second paragraph but I think in the case of a multiple team tie, the head to head should extend across the games between the tied sides and not use the results from other matches. It would be a bit farcical to me if it got down to a few points here and there based upon how much the three sides thrashed Romania and Tonga.

Or just go back to the last cricket world cup and do boundary count back.

There's really no perfect tiebreaker though.

That wouldn't work though, because hypothetically you would have Scotland are better than Ireland, who are better than South Africa, who are better than Scotland.

 

[Molehill]

That wouldn't work though, because hypothetically you would have Scotland are better than Ireland, who are better than South Africa, who are better than Scotland.

I think he means using the points difference from those games to decide it - not who thrashed Romania the most with their reserves.

 

[Ali TT]

That wouldn't work though, because hypothetically you would have Scotland are better than Ireland, who are better than South Africa, who are better than Scotland.

I think he means using the points difference from those games to decide it - not who thrashed Romania the most with their reserves.

Yes, what mh says. Also the bonus points won in the games between those sides if that was different somehow.

 

[Furball]

We're either going to get absolutely hammered, or win in a manner that still leaves us in 3rd.

 

[ripper868]

"Scotland, up by 3 with time expired, a penalty in front of the posts, 22m out, they take the 3, a famous 6 point victory, sees them qualify for the 2027 RWC"