Another thing I want to highlight:
http://statserver.cricket.org/guru?...ershigh=;event=0;submit=1;.cgifields=viewtype
The average 3rd inning total in Brisbane is 289 while the averae 4th inning total is 299!
The apprehensions are quite out of reason in my opinion.
Let me take the two scenarios.
Australia enforce follow on
Windies bats. Australia get 66 overs on the third day and whatever time remains to get the Windies out.
Lets take a possible worst case for Australia - Windies scoring 450 and Australia having to score 225 to win. A challenge on the 5th day no doubt. But not that tough a task. But a chance of a loss remains.
Australia does not enforce follow on
Windies get 500 or more to chase in two days or less considering how much Australia decide to bat further and how much it rains.
In the first scenario, even if it rains later on, Australia know that they will have to chase the required runs at a much hgher run rate. So they bat as agressively as the situation demands.
In the second scenario, if it rains a lot, Windies may have much less overs to bat than Australia could have forced them to.
The more it rains, the more it will that Australia should have enforced the follow on. For example if there are 90 overs of play which can occur in the match, and Australia declare immediately, they have 90 overs to dismiss Windies.
If they would have declared earlier, they would have had around 150 overs to get the wickets and make the runs at a quicker pace (whatever Windies managed above 225).
The declaration is a move is a very conservative approach. As a team you have to take the more agressive stand, playing for a greater chance of winning even if it means there is a very small chance of losing.
