Thanks, Anzac. A comprehensive opinion as always - rugby gets the Re:Union TV analysis show and various others over here, but sadly cricket gets nothing remotely like it.
The itinerary isn't out yet AFAIK, but I'd be surprised if Hopkins (or as much as I wouldn't agree with the choice, Papps) was still a 'TBD' rather than pencilled in as a definite traveller, and likewise a second spinner (even on SA wickets, I doubt they'll risk another enforced Trent Bridge situation). It's an interesting point you raise though because if they did deem Vincent or Sinclair as adequate, by coincidence they're probably two hovering right around the 15th/16th cut-line for their batting alone.
Something we're hearing a lot in NZ is, "wait till the 7 or 8 missing players come back" - almost as if seeing our current test side so outclassed by AUS has put a rose-coloured lens on the likes of Papps, Tuffey, Butler etc.
I've heard all of those players referred to as "front-line" or "first-choice" recently - I'd like to know the last time anyone was recalled as a test batsman after averaging 12 or less in a domestic comp!
I think you'll be correct about Tuffey also - he could well be entering the same technical pariah status Sinclair did as a batsman. Perhaps the work he did with R. Hadlee to try and fix his scrambled seam issues started his whole crisis of confidence in a 'paralysis by analysis' fashion, and now he can't even be trusted to be accurate.
Meanwhile Butler should probably have moved past the 'promising' age (it's ironic how overseas critics are often impressed by Butler's action and attitude on their first look at him, yet it's unorthodox young quicks like Malinga and Tait who seem to be surging ahead results-wise.). Despite his tantrum about Bracewell denying him a chance on harder surfaces in AUS, I'd agree that he's no guarantee to make the African squad. At best he'd make my 15 to call his bluff - if he doesn't take wickets in SA, he may finally leave the ego-driven tactics behind.
I see the "Chris Martin's taken 29 SA wickets @ 20" argument doesn't impress you a great deal Anzac, which is fair enough I suppose given he's taken 17 test wickets @ 66 since he last played the Proteas.
I'd probably still take him ahead of O'Brien though, who I think might be even more limited skills-wise. On thing I liked about Martin's performance in Napier was the reverse-swing he started getting away from RH's - something I hadn't seen him do before.