***Official**** Sri Lanka in New Zealand 2014/2015

[SteveNZ]

It would be salvageable if the star rating's were based on a statistically meaningfully stats, ie SD for economy rates and boundaries per ball over the last 5 years. Instead we are given arbitrary values with no thought behind them. Seems ridiculously easy for bowlers to get 5 stars, especially when its trotted out 5 overs into the game.

Exactly my point. I've got a vested interest in marketing and that is such an awful way of engaging viewers. Yes, their brand is being featured consistently but there's no strength to the message when it's there.

 

[viriya]

Is Perera's spot in doubt? I don't see what he adds, tbh.

I think he should keep his place over Jeevan. He's not supposed to be bowling at the death. He bowled 5 overs for <5/over which should is his job. Batting-wise he can change a game which Jeevan isn't quite capable of. He's no Corey Anderson however.

 

[viriya]

WASP clearly useless in the last 15 or so overs in an ODI but before that it isn't totally useless. Just pretty useless.

The fact it doesn't really take into account what the actual conditions of the ground are or the quality of the respective sides definitely means it is far less accurate than an informed pundit. But it's not really there to be used as an accurate prediction system, more to be used as a guide for casuals and to artificially up excitement.

The Sky commentary team definitely need to stop talking about it so much though. I think they may be used to using it for the domestic T20 stuff where it's a little more accurate at telling the "story" of the game.

The problem with WASP isn't that it doesn't take pitch conditions into account, it's that it's giving equal value to its entire database of historical matches.

I do mine pretty similarly to what it does but I give increasing importance to recent matches to take trends in the game into account, and also consider a wider batch of matches in a given match situation for a bigger sample (if 25 to get from 3 overs, I'll consider similar matches with a 15% window say).

What both mine and WASP is missing is momentum - the swing in the game that any person who's familiar with any cricket feels. This is overdone in betting sites.. Betfair handles the momentum too well - which is where a quantitative betting sytem would pay off.

 

[Athlai]

The problem with WASP isn't that it doesn't take pitch conditions into account, it's that it's giving equal value to its entire database of historical matches.

I do mine pretty similarly to what it does but I give increasing importance to recent matches to take trends in the game into account, and also consider a wider batch of matches in a given match situation for a bigger sample (if 25 to get from 3 overs, I'll consider similar matches with a 15% window say).

What both mine and WASP is missing is momentum - the swing in the game that any person who's familiar with any cricket feels. This is overdone in betting sites.. Betfair handles the momentum too well - which is where a quantitative betting sytem would pay off.

WASP actually does take into account the previous scores and innings on that particular pitch. However thats fairly meaningless a lot of the time as there is a very small sample size and conditions can change dramatically at certain grounds.

 

[viriya]

Sri Lanka really need to fix their best 11.. If they pick the following line-up they will have a fighting chance this WC:

1. Mahela
2. Dilshan
3. Sanga
4. Angelo
5. Thirimanne
6. Chandimal
7. Thisara
8. Sena
9. Kula
10. Herath
11. Malinga

Mahela to open where he averages 42 with a 91.4 SR. 10 more runs and at a rate 10 points higher than his overall average.

Malinga, Herath, Kula and Sena bowl 10 each, Angelo/Thisara/Dilshan bowl the remaining 10.
If either one of the first choice bowlers have a bad day, Angelo attempts to bowl 10. If a spinning wicket Dilshan bowls 10.

 

[Prince EWS]

Betfair handles the momentum too well

That's a big call. If you believe there's a specific factor that betting odds over- or under-rate consistently then you should be pretty rich.

 

[viriya]

Sri Lanka really need to fix their best 11.. If they pick the following line-up they will have a fighting chance this WC:

1. Mahela
2. Dilshan
3. Sanga
4. Angelo
5. Thirimanne
6. Chandimal
7. Thisara
8. Sena
9. Kula
10. Herath
11. Malinga

Mahela to open where he averages 42 with a 91.4 SR. 10 more runs and at a rate 10 points higher than his overall average.

Malinga, Herath, Kula and Sena bowl 10 each, Angelo/Thisara/Dilshan bowl the remaining 10.
If either one of the first choice bowlers have a bad day, Angelo attempts to bowl 10. If a spinning wicket Dilshan bowls 10.

 

[viriya]

That's a big call. If you believe there's a specific factor that betting odds over- or under-rate consistently then you should be pretty rich.

I would be if I could legally bet in this ****ing country.

 

[viriya]

WASP actually does take into account the previous scores and innings on that particular pitch. However thats fairly meaningless a lot of the time as there is a very small sample size and conditions can change dramatically at certain grounds.

Yea pitch factor might be too significant then. ODIs are less and less dependent on pitches now I feel since broadcasters don't want a match that's <250 scoring anymore.

 

[Hurricane]

Agree Athers. Some really good things came out of today. As I said at the time, I wasn't disappointed that Bmac failed today. Had he ended up 160 not out, I'm not sure we would have learnt much.

I thought we would chase down 270 odd when I saw our batting line up. Grant Elliot's innings proved to be decisive and more important than Corey's as runs at the top of the inning are harder to come by.

Ross, Ross, Ross, please come good.

I wonder if Anderson and Ronchi are the best 6 and 7 combo in the world...Especially now that Pollard isn't playing.

 

[Prince EWS]

I wonder if Anderson and Ronchi are the best 6 and 7 combo in the world...Especially now that Pollard isn't playing.

Yeah I reckon they are. It's a big weak spot for most teams at this World Cup. Australia will pick two of Bailey/Marsh/Faulkner/Maxwell/Haddin in those spots and that's probably the stiffest competition. Dhoni is obviously gun but the weakness of whoever they end up batting at seven (probably Jadeja or Binny) lets them down somewhat.

 

[Hurricane]

Thanks for that PEWS

my other two thoughts are:

1) put Malinga into that SL team and maybe they win today's game. Certainly would have gone down to the wire.
2) These are not straight forward "friendlies just for bragging rights". There is the aspect that you can get a psychological advantage over the other team heading into the world cup.

 

[Smudge]

WASP actually does take into account the previous scores and innings on that particular pitch. However thats fairly meaningless a lot of the time as there is a very small sample size and conditions can change dramatically at certain grounds.

I was in the car at the start of SL's innings. After one ball (possibly a single off it), apparently WASP was predicting a score of 265. The radio guys were amused.

 

[Athlai]

I was in the car at the start of SL's innings. After one ball (possibly a single off it), apparently WASP was predicting a score of 265. The radio guys were amused.

I may be wrong but I think WASP has a score prediction before the batting even begins? This may be a different par score that Sky has put up though.

 

[Smudge]

Probably. I guess there were a whole heap of stats from previous internationals at Saxton Oval to base that on. Or . . . just one?

 

[Athlai]

The only other first innings was 285, wouldn't be surprised if thats what it came from.

 

[Flem274*]

Nice win.

 

[Flem274*]

Sri Lanka really need to fix their best 11.. If they pick the following line-up they will have a fighting chance this WC:

1. Mahela
2. Dilshan
3. Sanga
4. Angelo
5. Thirimanne
6. Chandimal
7. Thisara
8. Sena
9. Kula
10. Herath
11. Malinga

Mahela to open where he averages 42 with a 91.4 SR. 10 more runs and at a rate 10 points higher than his overall average.

Malinga, Herath, Kula and Sena bowl 10 each, Angelo/Thisara/Dilshan bowl the remaining 10.
If either one of the first choice bowlers have a bad day, Angelo attempts to bowl 10. If a spinning wicket Dilshan bowls 10.

Thiri is a terrible choice for a #5 imo.

Jeevan Mendis seems pretty useful with the ball and can bat a little bit. I'd be tempted to commit sacrilege and go in with all three spinners. When you have Malinga, Kula and Mathews you still have plenty of pace bowling overs. No point in playing Thisara Perera if he's going to bowl puss.

I'd open with Thirmanne so he can do his anchor thing and keep Sanga and Mahela in the middle order. Bring Chandimal in and hope Mendis can sort himself out at #7.

 

[Moss]

Sri Lanka really need to fix their best 11.. If they pick the following line-up they will have a fighting chance this WC:

1. Mahela
2. Dilshan
3. Sanga
4. Angelo
5. Thirimanne
6. Chandimal
7. Thisara
8. Sena
9. Kula
10. Herath
11. Malinga

Mahela to open where he averages 42 with a 91.4 SR. 10 more runs and at a rate 10 points higher than his overall average.

Malinga, Herath, Kula and Sena bowl 10 each, Angelo/Thisara/Dilshan bowl the remaining 10.
If either one of the first choice bowlers have a bad day, Angelo attempts to bowl 10. If a spinning wicket Dilshan bowls 10.

Yeah, this I imagine is the lineup the opposition would least want to be up against. A bit top heavy, but the Herath/Sena combo could be a real point of difference and Perera's better off as a foil to Kula/Malinga. Would be interesting to see what level Malinga's at after injury. Maybe wrap him in cotton wool till the knockouts?

SL appear to have major trust issues with Chandimal. Similar to Pakistan with Umar Akmal.

 

[Hurricane]

Thiri is a terrible choice for a #5 imo.

Jeevan Mendis seems pretty useful with the ball and can bat a little bit. I'd be tempted to commit sacrilege and go in with all three spinners. When you have Malinga, Kula and Mathews you still have plenty of pace bowling overs. No point in playing Thisara Perera if he's going to bowl puss.

I'd open with Thirmanne so he can do his anchor thing and keep Sanga and Mahela in the middle order. Bring Chandimal in and hope Mendis can sort himself out at #7.

Yeah I agree - Virya - as good as Mahela is this tournament is in Aotearoa and Australia - a shedload of wickets are going to fall in the first 3 overs of every game. Why risk Mahela to a new ball from both ends.

I do agree you need someone better to open though.