***Official***Semi-Final #1- India vs New Zealand - November 15th - Wankhede, Mumbai (D/N)

[Teja.]

They want you to gamble.

I have been following the cricinfo odds this WC and they are far worse than any edge you may get in the $$$ odds imo. It just seems like a terrible and broken win probability system.

 

[Athlai]

NZ 5% best case scenario come on

 

[R!TTER]

New Zealand can win this.

Left a good 20-40 out there!

 

[Shri]

New Zealand can win this.

yes

 

[srbhkshk]

I have been following the cricinfo odds this WC and they are far worse than any edge you may get in the $$$ odds imo. It just seems like a terrible and broken win probability system.

There's probably certain amount of Bayesian modeling going on, so just the fact that it's an India - NZ match and not an India - Mongolia match stops the probabilities from going too extreme.

 

[Silver Silva]

And look at what he's supposed to do in the side. He can't do what he does without Kohli.

Spot on, ODI cricket is platform cricket, partnership cricket ..
All the teams that are successful in the format had someone in the side whose aim was to bat through the innings, just tempo changed to suit the times..

Cardinal sin in ODI cricket is dot balls , rotating strike the way Kohli does is actually a strength in ODI cricket, that is what separates ODI from T20 , the single in ODI is earned , the single in T20 is given ..If you create a platform in odi cricket you give the confidence to the middle order to play stress free , also it guards against a total collapse especially if you have a weak lower order like India does. Kohli played it beautifully..

 

[The Hutt Rec]

If we're 200/1 after 25 do we get the win?

 

[loterry1994]

I don’t know New Zealand didnt look to worried at all most of them

 

[Teja.]

There's probably certain amount of Bayesian modeling going on, so just the fact that it's an India - NZ match and not an India - Mongolia match stops the probabilities from going too extreme.

It's far too rigid though imo.

 

[Window]

There have 7 games with teams chasing 380+ scores this WC. 1 was a successful chase (DLS) and another was super close, which involved NZ. I don’t think a 15% win probability is that incredulous.

 

[SillyCowCorner1]

How much is Beckham getting payed for this appearance?

 

[srbhkshk]

It's far too rigid though imo.

possibly, just that I think there's a consideration to the possibility that in a match between two roughly evenly matched teams a high score in the first innings could represent both a great batting effort or/and an easy batting pitch.

 

[RossTaylorsBox]

You'll probably see that probability change dramatically once a wicket falls.

 

[Moss]

If we're 200/1 after 25 do we get the win?

Won't rain on the West Coast, but would be nice to find some other way to cause a disruption at an opportune moment.

That and the small matter of NZ not having the luxury of facing their own bowling.

 

[King Kane]

How much is Beckham getting payed for this appearance?

Heaps I imagine, I have never seen him at a cricket game involving England let alone a game involving India and NZ so I don't think he's a cricket fan.

 

[RossTaylorsBox]

Wait what's David Beckham doing

 

[Adorable Asshole]

Wait what's David Beckham doing

Watching Ind vs NZ WC 2023 SF

 

[King Kane]

Hopefully we can at least take this deep and make India sweat even if we don't get over the line.

If we do get over the line it will be one of the best wins of all time.

 

[RossTaylorsBox]

But apparently he's not

 

[eroticfishcake]

Ominous signs for India