Warning. Long post.
All this talk about Vincent down at #6 is worrying. Please note he averages 59 in six innings at #4, but at #6 he averages a mere 14. Do not put him at #6, please. The same goes for Oram at #6. He averages 32.20 at #6 and 92.00 at #7. Yeah, okay, why the hell are you guys constantly messing around with stuff that works? If the player is batting well in his position and nobody is doing anywhere near as good as they are in that position, then let them bloody well play in that position!
Cumming, J Marshall, H Marshall, Fleming, Vincent, Astle, Styris, Oram... tough pickings, something we aren't really used to but something good in my opinion. Now, let's look at the averages from stats since 1st Jan 2003. Italics signifies that they've played less than four innings in such a position.
Opening
Fleming - 35.11
J Marshall - 30.20
Vincent - 28.00
Cumming - 26.00
McCullum - 19 without loss
#3
Styris - 115.00
Astle - 64.00
Fleming - 58.33
H Marshall - 49.00
McCullum - 40.00
#4
Vincent - 68.40
Styris - 37.35
Fleming - 24.40
Astle - 8.33
#5
Fleming - 41.00
Astle - 37.93
Styris - 27.33
Oram - 19.00
#6
Fleming - 88.00
H Marshall - 69.00
Oram - 32.20
McCullum - 23.66
Astle - 19.00
Vincent - 14.00
Styris - 0.00
#7
Oram - 92.00
Vincent - 52.00
Astle - 49.00
McCullum - 40.66
#8
Astle - 51 without loss
Vettori - 45.62
Oram - 44.00
McCullum - 25.28
I give #9, #10 and #11 to Bond, Franklin and either Mills or Martin.
#9 - Franklin
#10 - Mills or Martin
#11 - Bond (although really, if Martin got picked, Bond would be #10. Let's not kid ourselves, Martin is a walking wicket).
The first man who, without thinking twice, assures his own position is Vettori at #8. So let's move from there. Oram averages 92 at #7, but McCullum also averages a nice 40.66. The difference is that Oram is capable of moving up if need be, while McCullum seems to waver out of such position. And, well, we can't exactly drop McCullum. That would be futile. So it's definitely the top 6 we're talking about here, regardless of the fact that Oram averages 92 when batting at #7. But wait a minute. Oram manages only two 50's in position #6 in his career, while he has two centuries at #7. Erm. Let's take a moment to consider our options once more - McCullum, while he has wavered up the order, has not been given many chances to really prove himself.
#8 - Vettori.
So, a closer look. He's only played 15 matches so it can't be too hard. McCullum, take away the scores against Bangladesh, drops his #7 average frrom 40.66 to a more modest 27.18. Ah, so it's not such a big move for him to go up to #6 after all, given his average doesn't almost half itself like I originally thought. Oram at #7, McCullum at #6? I can live with that. The combined averages, again, exclude that Bangladesh stuff, with this scenario are 115.66. Not bad compared to 59.38 with them the other way around, eh?
#6 - McCullum
#7 - Oram
Move on to the top 5, and we don't have to bother with Oram anymore because he's down the order. If he's not bowling, we do have to consider our options, I admit. But with #8 being Vettori and #'s 9, 10 and 11 being open to bowlers - as well as the possible Styris and, although to a lesser degree, Astle - we have at least four-and-a-bit bowlers. Oram being a fifth bowler when he's fit would give us quite the selection of bowlers consider we have him down at #7.
Now, those top five. Who's still in contention? With Oram out of the way due to the shuffle down the order, we have Fleming, H Marshall, J Marshall, Vincent, Cumming, Styris and Astle. Only two players have to go! Excellent. Now, let's first get the obvious selections out of the way with standout performers. Number one being Vincent, averaging 31 more runs than the next man down (Styris) for the #4 slot. Vincent is the only proven performer for this position. Done.
#4 - Vincent
Who has to definitely stay in the side given current form? Fleming, obviously, along with Hamish Marshall. So book their positions. The other two go to any of Styris, James Marshall, Astle and Cumming.
What about them openers? Fleming, Cumming, James Marshall.
James Marshall and Cumming are the two new boys. That would mean that the better of them, James Marshall, instantly gets the nod for one of the two positions. Okay... cutting it down further.
Fleming, Hamish Marshall, Vincent, James Marshall for the top five. And... Cumming, Styris or Astle?
Rough choice. The main decision is whether you stick with Cumming or if you put Fleming up the order. So let's look at Fleming. Is he more important to have down the order? My opinion? Opening, he averages 35.11 since 1st Jan 2003. Not too shabby, that. Not opening? 52.04. Okay, so he won't open. As you were, Cumming.
Astle and Styris are really unlucky in all of this. Styris in particular, in my opinion. But really, let's look at the results in all of this...
J Marshall
Cumming
Fleming or H Marshall
Vincent
H Marshall or Fleming
McCullum
Oram
Vettori
Franklin
Mills or Martin.
Bond
Compare it to option B, with Fleming opening.
Fleming
J Marshall
H Marshall or Styris or Astle
Vincent
H Marshall or Styris or Astle
McCullum
Oram
Vettori
Franklin
Mills or Martin.
Bond
Some real head-scratching material here. The second one looks so much stronger than the first. But you always do need two openers.
What are we missing out on?
Styris - Two centuries from three innings at #3. I don't think he does well enough in other positions.
Astle - Our consistent #5 man. Can bowl a bit, too. Explosive innings maker when needed, three half-centuries against Aussie and a century against Sri Lanka.
Cumming - Hard to say - his only games have been against Aussie and a touch of Sri Lanka. Has managed one 50 in nine innings, and that was on debut - when Aussie didn't know how to get him out. Since then he's struggled.
Cumming I personally wouldn't miss if he were gone, but at the same time I'm not sure who to replace him with. But if Fleming has to move up the order to open, he can - he's proved he's capable, despite his poor showings against the Aussie pace. My opinion is that he's better than Cumming and if Fleming moves up the order, there are other batsmen who can do just as well as him in whatever middle order position Fleming gives up in order to open. Seems logical to me.
So it's Styris vs. Astle.
And Hamish Marshall, really, but it's all down to who you want at #3 and who you want at #5. Hamish gets one of them, and one of the other two get the other.
That means Styris at #3 and Marshall at #5 or else Marshall at #3 and Astle at #5. I think this is where the fact that it's Zimbabwe comes in handy, because we can test out a few theories.
Or you can do what some people in ths thread are suggesting and drop Oram from his #7 where he averages 92 and has two unbeaten centuries to his name. Against South Africa and Australia. Er, no.
But Styris can bowl... and with Franklin, Vettori and (hopefully) Bond spearheading an attack, you could be forgiven for throwing Styris the ball on a regular basis. Once Oram bowls again, it's easy. But he doesn't right now. So it's not.
Oram fit to bowl?
Fleming
J Marshall
Styris
Vincent
Astle
H Marshall
Oram
Vettori
McCullum
Franklin
Bond
God, that's a long batting order, but God, it's good. And the bowling options of Oram, Vettori, Franklin, Bond and a bit of Styris and maybe Astle? Sorted. We'll win matches with that team.
Dammit, Oram, get fit enough to bowl already!
Okay, so he's not fit to bowl? Keep him as a bat.
You drop either Astle or Styris. That call is too hard for me to make. For anyone calling Styris' form in County Cricket - he averages 25.46 in Division One and has a bowling average of 23.80, while Astle bats in Divison Two averaging 32.83 with the bat and hasn't taken a wicket in his 35 overs. That to me is pretty even overall. It all depends on what you want more of, batter or all rounder. With Oram not bowling, I would go more to the all rounder arena, so my personal squad would be...
Fleming - Opens better than Cumming and makes way for an improved middle order.
J Marshall - Warrants his spot as the better of the rookie openers.
Styris - Would love to see him tried in this spot more often as it's where he's two of his four centuries in just three innings at #3.
Vincent - Easily securing the #4 position.
H Marshall - Moved to #5 because I feel he can score just as well here as he would up the order. If proved wrong, then we can adapt and move in Astle and take out Styris, but I honestly think Hamish will prove he's just as competent in this position.
McCullum - Batting at #6 because Oram bats better at #7.
Oram - Because the further up the order you move Oram, the worse he does. Seriously, just let him carry on scoring centuries and winning games from #7 and I will be more than happy.
Vettori - Bats beautifully at #8.
Franklin - Batting below Vettori because anyone who says he should bat above Vettori should be shot.
Bond - Better than Martin, worse than Franklin.
Martin - Better than Mills. You know. Actually able to take test wickets and all that.
Tada. I spent about two hours researching all the different possibilities on this, by the way.
Maybe I should have considered taking up the offer to write for CricketWeb after all. That way I could throw stuff up on the site and you guys wouldn't have to bother with my long posts.
While Loony BoB makes some excellent points, I doubt the selectors will move on from Astle. And Styris at 3, well, I think Hamish should be at 3 because of recent success. Styris' recent county form is a worry; I don't think he has the technique against the new ball, although he has done well up the order. Don't get me wrong, though, I'm a huge Styris fan.
