India have a decent chance I agree, but not everything you've stated here is right in my opinion.
Firstly, I'd argue Anderson is bowling the best he ever has done in his career. He's ageing and is coming back straight from injury, but he'll know how to bowl and I think will continue to be incredibly successful against the Indian batsmen, especially so if the ball moves about. Braod hasn't been as great, however, there are a few signs that he is coming back to his best, having worked on his action after the winter, and bowling pretty decently in the Pak series. Overall, I don't think Broad/Anderson will be any less threatening in English conditions than they have ever been. Woakes is also great in English conditions so I wouldn't underestimate him in this series.
I also don't necessarily think the pak/eng 2018 series result reflects the quality of the sides either. The problem with going off the Eng/Pak series that just happened, is that it was only two matches. Granted Pakistan did really well to draw the series and win a game with their inexperienced team, and we were dreadful. But it might be that England's performance in that match was just a one off, which is evidenced by the way they played in the next game and won by an innings. I imagine if it were a five match series we would have gone on to win the next three (you never know though). Using the argument that even Pakistan managed to draw is slightly irrelevant I think, since this is a five match series.