Smudge
Hall of Fame Member
Putting my balls on the line here, ahead of tomorrow.
It’s that time again. The time when the ugliest mutton in Canterbury attempt to transform themselves into the most succulent legs of lamb; the time when the moleskins are sent to the drycleaners for the first time since last November; and the time when non-racegoers suddenly start talking about mile rates, closing 400m times and the “three-wide train”. Yep, it’s Cup week and – more specifically – the New Zealand Trotting Cup tomorrow.
Now, I’m one of those sad tragics who actually gives two ****s about mile rates et al for the other 51 weeks of the year, and as such, here’s the best preview you’ll ever see without having to pay for. Well, aside from the broadband usage you’re eating up by reading this.
THE UNDERCARD:
Race 1:
What a way to start the day – with one confirmed trotting star, and two up and comers. Sovereignty, the squaregaiter with his name firmly in lights after dominating the 3-Year-Old trotting season in 2007/08 is back, and looked every bit as good as last year when he resumed with a 2 ¼ length win at Addington on October 21. But he’s giving 10 metres to another rising star, the Tim Butt and Phil Anderson-trained gelding, Ray. And if anyone knows how to train trotters, it’s Tim Butt – he of Lyell Creek and Take A Moment fame. One cannot discard Makarewa Sun though – a very lightly-tried 7-year-old Sundon gelding, who has sheer speed which can be utilised if he gets a soft trip to add to his 5 wins from 10 starts. However, I’m opting to chuck in the drive of Dexter Dunn, The Fat Controller, who surprised everyone at Ashburton, for third.
Selections: Sovereignty, Ray, The Fat Controller
Race 2:
Two loom as likely contenders here – Rangataua Ray and Reine Guinevere. If one was to go on trainers, the only option would be to stick with Reine Guinevere as Mark Purdon and Grant Payne are in brilliant form, but her draw of 12 (three on the second line) could be somewhat tricky, so I’m opting with Rangataua Ray who will, admittedly, need a bit of luck from his draw on the outside of the front line.
Selections: Rangataua Ray, Reine Guinevere, Victoria Rulz
Race 3:
Assuming Absolute Magic doesn’t sneak into the Trotting Cup field (and he’ll need two scratchings to do so), this should be a two-horse affair between he and the Great Northern Derby winner Fiery Falcon. They’re both off the front so it could be a case of who steps better. The both tend to have good standing start manners, and I’d anticipate an early battle between Absolute Magic and Ohoka Utah for the lead. As such, Fiery Falcon could be able to get away with a tuck in the running line out of danger before driver Blair Orange decides to put him into the race.
Selections: Fiery Falcon, Absolute Magic, Ohoka Utah (smallest trifecta of the day)
Race 4:
Good betting race, this. I’m keen on the horses with the good draws again, particularly over the sprint distance of 1950m, which is why I’m opting for the Jim Curtin trained-and-driven Dream Away gelding Dream Supreme. He’s got an outstanding turn of foot, which he should be able to utilise up the passing lane after most likely trailing behind Lord Mamaduke for the majority of the journey. Look for the Southland-trained Salliwood and Belhelvie to be running on at the end.
Selections: Dream Supreme, Salliwood, Belhelvie.
Race 5:
Springbank Richard - needs his manners to be right to have a chance against Our Sunny Whiz
It doesn’t get any easier to pick when we move to race 5. The quality in this field is deeper down the numbers – Our Sunny Whiz (off 10m) and Springbank Richard (off the front, but on the unruly mark) loom as the likely quinella, but Springbank Richard in particular is very hit-or-miss from the stand, winning six of his 12 starts, but finishing nowhere when he has missed away. For that reason, Our Sunny Whiz is my top selection (despite an average trial last week) to beat Awesome Imace and Springbank Richard for third.
Selections: Our Sunny Whiz, Awesome Imace, Springbank Richard
Race 6:
Won’t muck around here- Charbella Gold (drawn nicely at 4) to beat Hilarious Life and the resuming Rider On The Storm.
Selections: See above
Race 7:
Joyfuljoy should continue an excellent day for the Purdon/Payne barn, beating Tact Lizzie (who was disappointing at Ashburton) and Captain Bromac.
Selections: See above
Race 8:
One of the toughest Sires Stakes finals to work out in recent years. Purdon and Payne again have a huge hand in here, with Highview Tommy, Eric’s Legend, Mercurio and Sleepy Tripp all live winning chances, after they won the same race last year with the superstar Auckland Reactor. The early money is on Stunin Cullen though, and I can’t have Highview Tommy after he keeps finding ways to beat himself. Hoping for Kirk Larsen to sneak a place here with Dustin Bromac or The Showman.
Selections: Stunin Cullen, Sleepy Tripp, Dustin Bromac
Race 9:
Auckland Reactor - the superstar of NZ Harness Racing
This isn’t even a contest. Auckland Reactor has already been opened at the shortest racing fixed odds price in NZ history, at $1.05. The only reason he isn’t in the NZ Cup is that his standing start manners have been terrible to date so he will smash this junior free-for-all field to pieces from the mobile. Letitia Franco’s resuming run at Ashburton was tough, so I’ll lob her and fellow mare Artishake in for the multiples.
Selections: Auckland Reactor, Letitia Francho, Artishake.
Race 11:
The weakest field of the day, but that just means another winning chance for Purdon and Payne. No need to go past the NZ Trotting Derby winner from last season, Doctor Mickey, who won well second-up at Ashburton, while I’ve been following Brownie with interest.
Selections: Doctor Mickey, Brownie, Araucana
Race 12:
If you need a roughie to get you out of trouble in the last, then hard luck. Or maybe not. All Tiger has a tricky draw of 10 (one on the second line) but has Texas Hold Em immediately outside him so they’re pretty much in the same spot of bother. Instead, I’m going to go one further out to Georgetown, who has done the job in his two starts back since a spell, and is as tough as teak.
Selections: Georgetown, Texas Holdem, All Tiger
THE CUP:
I have but one wish – for Changeover not to win the cup. His trainer, Geoff Small, represents everything that was wrong about the bad old days of harness racing – the horse itself has a caffeine charge hanging over it from two years ago (yes, it’s illegal to let a horse have a latte before a race), Small was involved in a case of team driving almost two years ago which is still to be heard while more recently he refused to allow the club vet inspect his horses after they ran poorly at Alexandra Park a few weeks back.
Unfortunately, he’s drawn brilliantly and has the best manners out of all the best changes. However, the race distance of 3200m means it’s not going to be a procession – there will be moves a’plenty throughout the race and if things constantly evolve, Changeover and driver David Butcher could find themselves three-back on the markers with nowhere to go. Steven Reid thought he had the race won with Monkey King last year only for the iron horse Flashing Red to upset the applecart, but the “Monkey”, if he can get away, is a huge danger with one run at them. Baileys Dream is reputedly as good as he’s ever been and can work several times in a race, so Reid has every chance of cup glory this year. I can’t have Gotta Go Cullen in my top three after his extremely average barrier manners in recent starts and sadly, for my mate who has a tiny share, Awesome Armbro went very poorly at Kaikoura and looks to have peaked already.
Selections: Monkey King, Baileys Dream, Changeover. Roughie for a place: Likmesiah
$10 Pick Six:
Leg 1: 4, 8
Leg 2: 3, 4, 6, 13, 15,
Leg 3: 4
Leg 4: 3, 16, 17
Leg 5: 1, 14
Leg 6: 10, 12
$10 = 17%
It’s that time again. The time when the ugliest mutton in Canterbury attempt to transform themselves into the most succulent legs of lamb; the time when the moleskins are sent to the drycleaners for the first time since last November; and the time when non-racegoers suddenly start talking about mile rates, closing 400m times and the “three-wide train”. Yep, it’s Cup week and – more specifically – the New Zealand Trotting Cup tomorrow.
Now, I’m one of those sad tragics who actually gives two ****s about mile rates et al for the other 51 weeks of the year, and as such, here’s the best preview you’ll ever see without having to pay for. Well, aside from the broadband usage you’re eating up by reading this.
THE UNDERCARD:
Race 1:
What a way to start the day – with one confirmed trotting star, and two up and comers. Sovereignty, the squaregaiter with his name firmly in lights after dominating the 3-Year-Old trotting season in 2007/08 is back, and looked every bit as good as last year when he resumed with a 2 ¼ length win at Addington on October 21. But he’s giving 10 metres to another rising star, the Tim Butt and Phil Anderson-trained gelding, Ray. And if anyone knows how to train trotters, it’s Tim Butt – he of Lyell Creek and Take A Moment fame. One cannot discard Makarewa Sun though – a very lightly-tried 7-year-old Sundon gelding, who has sheer speed which can be utilised if he gets a soft trip to add to his 5 wins from 10 starts. However, I’m opting to chuck in the drive of Dexter Dunn, The Fat Controller, who surprised everyone at Ashburton, for third.
Selections: Sovereignty, Ray, The Fat Controller
Race 2:
Two loom as likely contenders here – Rangataua Ray and Reine Guinevere. If one was to go on trainers, the only option would be to stick with Reine Guinevere as Mark Purdon and Grant Payne are in brilliant form, but her draw of 12 (three on the second line) could be somewhat tricky, so I’m opting with Rangataua Ray who will, admittedly, need a bit of luck from his draw on the outside of the front line.
Selections: Rangataua Ray, Reine Guinevere, Victoria Rulz
Race 3:
Assuming Absolute Magic doesn’t sneak into the Trotting Cup field (and he’ll need two scratchings to do so), this should be a two-horse affair between he and the Great Northern Derby winner Fiery Falcon. They’re both off the front so it could be a case of who steps better. The both tend to have good standing start manners, and I’d anticipate an early battle between Absolute Magic and Ohoka Utah for the lead. As such, Fiery Falcon could be able to get away with a tuck in the running line out of danger before driver Blair Orange decides to put him into the race.
Selections: Fiery Falcon, Absolute Magic, Ohoka Utah (smallest trifecta of the day)
Race 4:
Good betting race, this. I’m keen on the horses with the good draws again, particularly over the sprint distance of 1950m, which is why I’m opting for the Jim Curtin trained-and-driven Dream Away gelding Dream Supreme. He’s got an outstanding turn of foot, which he should be able to utilise up the passing lane after most likely trailing behind Lord Mamaduke for the majority of the journey. Look for the Southland-trained Salliwood and Belhelvie to be running on at the end.
Selections: Dream Supreme, Salliwood, Belhelvie.
Race 5:
Springbank Richard - needs his manners to be right to have a chance against Our Sunny Whiz
It doesn’t get any easier to pick when we move to race 5. The quality in this field is deeper down the numbers – Our Sunny Whiz (off 10m) and Springbank Richard (off the front, but on the unruly mark) loom as the likely quinella, but Springbank Richard in particular is very hit-or-miss from the stand, winning six of his 12 starts, but finishing nowhere when he has missed away. For that reason, Our Sunny Whiz is my top selection (despite an average trial last week) to beat Awesome Imace and Springbank Richard for third.
Selections: Our Sunny Whiz, Awesome Imace, Springbank Richard
Race 6:
Won’t muck around here- Charbella Gold (drawn nicely at 4) to beat Hilarious Life and the resuming Rider On The Storm.
Selections: See above
Race 7:
Joyfuljoy should continue an excellent day for the Purdon/Payne barn, beating Tact Lizzie (who was disappointing at Ashburton) and Captain Bromac.
Selections: See above
Race 8:
One of the toughest Sires Stakes finals to work out in recent years. Purdon and Payne again have a huge hand in here, with Highview Tommy, Eric’s Legend, Mercurio and Sleepy Tripp all live winning chances, after they won the same race last year with the superstar Auckland Reactor. The early money is on Stunin Cullen though, and I can’t have Highview Tommy after he keeps finding ways to beat himself. Hoping for Kirk Larsen to sneak a place here with Dustin Bromac or The Showman.
Selections: Stunin Cullen, Sleepy Tripp, Dustin Bromac
Race 9:
Auckland Reactor - the superstar of NZ Harness Racing
This isn’t even a contest. Auckland Reactor has already been opened at the shortest racing fixed odds price in NZ history, at $1.05. The only reason he isn’t in the NZ Cup is that his standing start manners have been terrible to date so he will smash this junior free-for-all field to pieces from the mobile. Letitia Franco’s resuming run at Ashburton was tough, so I’ll lob her and fellow mare Artishake in for the multiples.
Selections: Auckland Reactor, Letitia Francho, Artishake.
Race 11:
The weakest field of the day, but that just means another winning chance for Purdon and Payne. No need to go past the NZ Trotting Derby winner from last season, Doctor Mickey, who won well second-up at Ashburton, while I’ve been following Brownie with interest.
Selections: Doctor Mickey, Brownie, Araucana
Race 12:
If you need a roughie to get you out of trouble in the last, then hard luck. Or maybe not. All Tiger has a tricky draw of 10 (one on the second line) but has Texas Hold Em immediately outside him so they’re pretty much in the same spot of bother. Instead, I’m going to go one further out to Georgetown, who has done the job in his two starts back since a spell, and is as tough as teak.
Selections: Georgetown, Texas Holdem, All Tiger
THE CUP:
I have but one wish – for Changeover not to win the cup. His trainer, Geoff Small, represents everything that was wrong about the bad old days of harness racing – the horse itself has a caffeine charge hanging over it from two years ago (yes, it’s illegal to let a horse have a latte before a race), Small was involved in a case of team driving almost two years ago which is still to be heard while more recently he refused to allow the club vet inspect his horses after they ran poorly at Alexandra Park a few weeks back.
Unfortunately, he’s drawn brilliantly and has the best manners out of all the best changes. However, the race distance of 3200m means it’s not going to be a procession – there will be moves a’plenty throughout the race and if things constantly evolve, Changeover and driver David Butcher could find themselves three-back on the markers with nowhere to go. Steven Reid thought he had the race won with Monkey King last year only for the iron horse Flashing Red to upset the applecart, but the “Monkey”, if he can get away, is a huge danger with one run at them. Baileys Dream is reputedly as good as he’s ever been and can work several times in a race, so Reid has every chance of cup glory this year. I can’t have Gotta Go Cullen in my top three after his extremely average barrier manners in recent starts and sadly, for my mate who has a tiny share, Awesome Armbro went very poorly at Kaikoura and looks to have peaked already.
Selections: Monkey King, Baileys Dream, Changeover. Roughie for a place: Likmesiah
$10 Pick Six:
Leg 1: 4, 8
Leg 2: 3, 4, 6, 13, 15,
Leg 3: 4
Leg 4: 3, 16, 17
Leg 5: 1, 14
Leg 6: 10, 12
$10 = 17%
