Spark
Global Moderator
Winner.The point I'm making is that the fact that he was successful does not automatically mean his risk/reward assessment was good throughout his innings. Fact of the matter is that Dhoni was able to achieve those last 12 runs because McKay bowled three terrible deliveries; that was completely out of his control, which is the absolute definition of luck. He'd paced it poorly from when he came in to let it get to 12 off 4 required - or indeed even 13 off 9 required. 32 (52) and then 12 (4) - or even 13 (9) - is a lot harder and indeed more prone to wickets falling than 42 (52) and 3 (9). The risks to declined earlier in his innings magnified as the end drew nearer; he had timed it poorly and was lucky to get away with it.
I actually don't even have a problem with you disagreeing with that and thinking it was less risky for him to do what he did given the increased threat of his wicket falling had he tried to score slightly quicker earlier. Agree to disagree and all that. The problem I have is with the assertion that any successful chase was paced correctly as a matter of fact because of the result. If McKay had bowled the perfect over they would've lost which would then make it a poorly placed innings apparently, which is stupid because the quality of the risk/reward assessment at the time is unaffected by what happens after the fact; merely what gives you the best chance at the time. The way Dhoni placed his innings did not give India the best chance they had of winning the match; they just happened to win anyway. If you disagree that's fine but what actually happened in the last 9 balls or whatever shouldn't come into it.