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*Official* Australia vs South Africa -2022/3

Burgey

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Agar doesn’t turn his stock ball enough to succeed in Aus at test level, but either did SOK. Still think Agar would do a job in India
 

morgieb

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This sounds crazy but if they're still in at lunch it might honestly be easier for South Africa to win than Australia.

Of course, Australia could (and might be more likely to) just kill the game if South Africa avoid the follow-on. But I think some captains would think about declaring after 2 overs and set a 4th innings chase.
 

GotSpin

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This sounds crazy but if they're still in at lunch it might honestly be easier for South Africa to win than Australia.

Of course, Australia could (and might be more likely to) just kill the game if South Africa avoid the follow-on. But I think some captains would think about declaring after 2 overs and set a 4th innings chase.
Mate…
 

morgieb

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I'll put it in another equation.

South Africa need 32 more runs to avoid the follow-on. It won't be straightforward but on current form they could definitely do it. Australia is really delivering nothing. Even if they do enforce the follow-on I think taking 10 wickets in 50 overs would be extremely difficult given the flatness of the pitch.

Australia then have two options. Do they bat out the day and condemn the match to a draw? Or do they declare pretty much straightaway and set South Africa 200 in 40 overs?

I know what you're thinking - South Africa can't really bat. But if you asked who was more likely to win if you set 200 off 40, you'd say the batting team. And all it needs is someone to slog a quickfire 70 and you might be in business.

I'm not saying South Africa will win. The Test is a near certain draw. But if Australia were to set up a run chase, I'd rather be in South Africa's camp than Australia's (with the caveat that even 200 off 40 would be more likely a draw).
 

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