Oh boy, oh boy, only a fool would try and predict what will happen tomorrow.
This match could still go any of three ways. Basically it comes down to a one-day scenario. Can England bat 40 or 50 overs (60 to be safe)? Can Australia bowl them out and make the run chase in the later part of the day? Will bad light cause it to be drawn and hand England the Ashes?
Just like the other matches anything can happen. There is something there for both fans. Yesterday as Hayden and Langer put up huge scores I was pretty certain the Aussies would take a 200+ lead into the last day, then Freddie and Hoggie "swung" it back again and left the Aussies trailing by 6 (something I had thought was nearly impossible - though it looked more likely once the collapse started). We know England can feel the pressure after they limped to 128 at Trent Bridge, but I also think the Aussies could feel pressure too. After the promise of a huge lead they collapsed and will feel they under-achieved. The longer England bat the more pressure on the Aussies to take wickets. The more wickets fall the more the game will swing to the Aussies and the more pressure will mount on England. In a way it encapsulates all the tense finishes we have seen so far...
The weather may not be a factor in the overs bowled, as if Australia bat, they will be doing so after England and will not take the light again. If they do bat, then they will come out hitting for that target and in the gloom they could get out quickly or the fielders could drop catches again. However, all this depends on the Australian bowlers taking wickets. Warne will take wickets tomorrow and the quicks may chip in too, but how quickly they fall is the key...
Returning to the issue of pressure...
It is fair to say a batsman generally feels pressure more than a bowler. I think in Warne, Lee and McGrath the Aussies have some bowlers that can perform under high pressure (not sure about Tait - he may feel it more). The English batsmen are visibly prone. Bell will almost certainly go quickly if exposed early in the day. Geraint Jones can have a rush of blood and Pietersen promises but can fall short. Trescothick, Vaughan and Flintoff may be key wickets, Collingwood is an unknown factor. But England must already sense that The Ashes Urn is within reach and after a good day yesterday will feel it is theirs for the taking. So at the outset, I don't think they will be under too much pressure, and that will ease as the overs pass, but should wickets fall then it be overbearing just as it was at Trent Bridge.
The Aussie pacemen may not have the same bowling conditions England had today and so, it all comes down to one bowler and how quickly he takes wickets...(and how England play him of course)...
Warne's strike rate this series (before the Oval) is ~37. After his 1st innings performance it is probably a little lower. He will probably need 3 or 4 close in fielders and the rest saving runs...
In the other Ashes matches (Old Trafford doesn't count as Warne was on the defensive in a game the Aussies couldn't win), England mustered totals of 180 in 58.1 overs, 182 in 52.1, and 127 for 7 in 31.5.