Future ****Stars**** of Australian Cricket

[Richard]

I dont think England had really worked out that good test players arent always great ODI players...when they sussed it they got good (for a bit anyway)

True, one of the great mysteries(and tragedies for England) that F'bro didnt play more then he did

Knight, Hick, Fairbrother - England's 3 best ODI players.
None good enough for Tests.
Says a lot, that does.

 

[marc71178]

Very.

Proof?

 

[marc71178]

Glenn McGrath played 8 FC games before being picked for the Test side and Warnie's FC average was above 35 when he played his first Test.

Ah, but McGrath's just a lucky bowler.

 

[marc71178]

Shame about his List-A-OD economy-rate of 4.38-an-over, then, eh?

How on Earth can you claim that to be poor?

 

[Neil Pickup]

I reproduced it with 10 Tests plus, and it became negative.

 

[Swervy]

I reproduced it with 10 Tests plus, and it became negative.

they must be the lucky players

 

[Neil Pickup]

I've re-run the regression on the following sixteen players - Butcher, Crawley, Flintoff, Hick, Hussain, Jones, Knight, Lewis, Ramprakash, Rhodes, Stewart, Strauss, Thorpe, Trescothick, Vaughan, White - qualifications being a 1990s debut, ten Tests and an FC batting average above 30.

Regression Analysis: Test versus FC

The regression equation is
Test = 20.3 + 0.352 FC

Predictor    Coef  SE Coef     T      P
Constant    20.30    15.46  1.31  0.210
FC         0.3515   0.3774  0.93  0.367

S = 9.33004   R-Sq = 5.8%

Basically, that means a whacking great 5.8% of the variance in the Test averages can be statistically explained by the variance in the FC averages, and 94.2% comes down to other factors. Statistically, it's woeful to the point of utterly insignificant.

If I run a multivariate regression and/or correlation including highest scores, fifty rate, hundred rate and conversion rate... the results are still crap. It actually turns out some of other variables are more statistically significant predictors than the FC average, but the best adjusted R-squared term I could manage was 23.8%, with the equation of: 21.989 - 0.06508*HS + 105.07*F/I where HS = High Score and F/I is fifties per innings.

Conclusion: FC averages mean nothing.

 

[Swervy]

couldnt have put it better myself.....

no really, I couldnt

 

[aussie]

aussie

No wonder it took him so long to settle into Test-cricket!
Finally I find a plausible explanation for that...

what proof do u have to that, McGrath took his first 5 wicket haul in i think it was his 6th or 7th test, but it was the first test againts west indies at barbados in that historic 1995 series in the caribbean

 

[Top_Cat]

No wonder it took him so long to settle into Test-cricket!
Finally I find a plausible explanation for that...

How do you figure? Yes it took two years before he took his first 5-fer and established himself in the Test side but he was dropped for a long period during that. Technically, it was his 10th Test where he took his first 5-fer and hasn't looked back. 10 Tests to establish oneself in a Test side with the pedigree of only 8 FC games is an extraordinary achievement.

 

[Mister Wright]

How do you figure? Yes it took two years before he took his first 5-fer and established himself in the Test side but he was dropped for a long period during that. Technically, it was his 10th Test where he took his first 5-fer and hasn't looked back. 10 Tests to establish oneself in a Test side with the pedigree of only 8 FC games is an extraordinary achievement.

10 tests is a lot quicker than it took Steve Waugh to 'establish' himself in the side.

 

[Richard]

Proof?

Read a few of his posts with quotes in them.

 

[Richard]

Ah, but McGrath's just a lucky bowler.

Which has what to do with this?

 

[Richard]

How on Earth can you claim that to be poor?

I don't.
I just claim it to be unexceptional.
And for proof of that try examining those of McGrath, Gillespie, Warne, Kasprowicz, Bichel, Harvey and a few others.

 

[Richard]

I've re-run the regression on the following sixteen players - Butcher, Crawley, Flintoff, Hick, Hussain, Jones, Knight, Lewis, Ramprakash, Rhodes, Stewart, Strauss, Thorpe, Trescothick, Vaughan, White - qualifications being a 1990s debut, ten Tests and an FC batting average above 30.

Regression Analysis: Test versus FC

The regression equation is
Test = 20.3 + 0.352 FC

Predictor    Coef  SE Coef     T      P
Constant    20.30    15.46  1.31  0.210
FC         0.3515   0.3774  0.93  0.367

S = 9.33004   R-Sq = 5.8%

Basically, that means a whacking great 5.8% of the variance in the Test averages can be statistically explained by the variance in the FC averages, and 94.2% comes down to other factors. Statistically, it's woeful to the point of utterly insignificant.

If I run a multivariate regression and/or correlation including highest scores, fifty rate, hundred rate and conversion rate... the results are still crap. It actually turns out some of other variables are more statistically significant predictors than the FC average, but the best adjusted R-squared term I could manage was 23.8%, with the equation of: 21.989 - 0.06508*HS + 105.07*F/I where HS = High Score and F/I is fifties per innings.

Conclusion: FC averages mean nothing.

So - name the players who've been successes in Test-match cricket without having success at the domestic level?
And in the meantime, name those who have had success and have also had it at the domestic level?

 

[Richard]

How do you figure? Yes it took two years before he took his first 5-fer and established himself in the Test side but he was dropped for a long period during that. Technically, it was his 10th Test where he took his first 5-fer and hasn't looked back. 10 Tests to establish oneself in a Test side with the pedigree of only 8 FC games is an extraordinary achievement.

How many FC games did he play during the dropped time?

 

[Neil Pickup]

Here's your data:

Player		Test	FC
Butcher		34.58	39.24
Crawley		34.61	46.78
Flintoff	32.44	35.96
Hick		31.32	53.50
Hussain		37.18	42.06
Jones		31.88	38.94
Knight		23.96	44.77
Lewis		23.02	30.73
Ramprakash	27.32	48.22
Rhodes		24.50	32.82
Stewart		39.54	40.06
Strauss		56.63	44.18
Thorpe		43.94	45.13
Trescothick	43.00	35.43
Vaughan		44.20	38.50
White		24.46	31.63

 

[Richard]

Quite a few who've failed at the Test having done well at the domestic-FC.
Three (Butcher, Crawley, Flintoff) whose most recent Test performances have been good.
And hardly any who've done well at the international without doing well at the domestic (Trescothick, who had a first-chance average of 28 in his first 3 years).

 

[Swervy]

Quite a few who've failed at the Test having done well at the domestic-FC.
Three (Butcher, Crawley, Flintoff) whose most recent Test performances have been good.
And hardly any who've done well at the international without doing well at the domestic (Trescothick, who had a first-chance average of 28 in his first 3 years).

so the goalpost have moved yet again????

back to the drawing board again Neil

 

[Richard]

Find where I've mentioned it elsewhere.