Can Ashwin beat Murali's 800?

[mr_mister]

When Murali was 29 he was already rated the greatest test match bowler ever by Wisden and had taken 350+ wickets

So like I think even if you rated Ashwin in his league he's already too old

 

[NUFAN]

I think a better question would be whether he would end up being India's highest wicket taker, in other words surpassing Kumble? I think he has a shot at that.

800 - probably not.

This.

Ashwin can bat a bit too.

 

[Pratters]

No he is unlikely to.

 

[G.I.Joe]

No

 

[Motorwada]

India have sometimes played 14 Tests in a year, but usually don't: they played 96 matches in the last 10 years, and only 44 of those were in the last 5.

There's quite a big focus on tests now.
43 in the next 3 years (including the concluded 1st WI match).

You will have noticed the tours are getting bigger.

Eng tours are now 5 match instead of the 3/4 that used to be there earlier (both end of the year home tour and 2018 away leg)
SA tours are 4 match instead of the 2/3 that used to be there earlier (2017 away tour to SA is 4 matches as was last year's home tour)

 

[Zinzan]

So much less likely than Cook taking Tendulkar's Test run scoring record it's not funny.

Too many things needed to go his way even to get near 700 for mine.

 

[smash84]

he possibly can get to 800 (if he plays for a LOONG long time) but he probably will not

 

[flibbertyjibber]

So much less likely than Cook taking Tendulkar's Test run scoring record it's not funny.

Too many things needed to go his way even to get near 700 for mine.

This, and we get slagged off for saying that Cook will beat that record. Cook is about 2/3 of the way there, Ashwin 1/4 so which is likelier given we play more tests than they do?

 

[Howe_zat]

This, and we get slagged off for saying that Cook will beat that record. Cook is about 2/3 of the way there, Ashwin 1/4 so which is likelier given we play more tests than they do?

Do we? I don't think it's particularly out there any more, I'm sure it will be a sore point for some, but that's not quite the same

 

[honestbharani]

But exactly how many have said he can here? One poster raised it as a possibility and only smiley has gambhired in saying it is possible in support. Just about everyone else has only said it is impossible. FTR, I think it is ridiculous too. I will be happy with anything between Harbhajan and Kumble.

 

[G.I.Joe]

But exactly how many have said he can here? One poster raised it as a possibility and only smiley has gambhired in saying it is possible in support. Just about everyone else has only said it is impossible. FTR, I think it is ridiculous too. I will be happy with anything between Harbhajan and Kumble.

I count 15 unequivocal Nos and 2 Smali'ing posts.

There was even a post prior to fibbertyjibber's referencing Cook's runs tally:

Its pure speculation at this point and extremely unlikely too. Would've been fair if you asked 'Will Cook surpass Sachin's test runs tally?' coz Cook is more than half way through achieving that with considerable amount of time left in his career. Talking about possibility of Ashwin overtaking Murali is naive at this moment.

Fibbertyjibber's later post was uncalled for.

 

[viriya]

Since the majority opinion seems to be a resounding no, I'd like to make things interesting and change the question:

Can Ashwin beat Warne's 708?

Based on the numbers I gave on the OP, I think it's probable barring injury that he gets close to 700. My money is on ~600 to be the most likely ending career tally though.

 

[flibbertyjibber]

No ^

 

[Daemon]

I personally think he'll go on to take 1,000 wickets and beat Cook's tally of total runs. Along the way he'll captain India to a famous series victory in England, dismissing Cook in his final Test innings while he's on 99, 1 run away from his 50th Test ton.

Actually scratch that last bit, don't think Cook will get that many hundreds.

 

[Daemon]

I count 15 unequivocal Nos and 2 Smali'ing posts.

There was even a post prior to fibbertyjibber's referencing Cook's runs tally:



Fibbertyjibber's later post was uncalled for.

Very good and apt nickname for the situation

 

[harsh.ag]

~400 wickets for mine.

 

[viriya]

~400 wickets for mine.

I think that's the absolutely lowest estimate. If he plays for 5-6 more years (34-35 age) and gets wickets at the current rate that's already 500 wickets right there (assuming 10 tests/year).

 

[honestbharani]

I think that's the absolutely lowest estimate. If he plays for 5-6 more years (34-35 age) and gets wickets at the current rate that's already 500 wickets right there (assuming 10 tests/year).

Unfortunately cricket careers are not arithmetic exercises..

 

[viriya]

Unfortunately cricket careers are not arithmetic exercises..

When you consider that he has had one of the best first 30-35 test matches for a spinner, and that spinners reach their peak later in their career, it's not just an arithmetic exercise.

 

[Black_Warrior]

One of the patterns that I have noticed now with better fitness and players lasting for more games is obviously the impact it has on wickets/runs tally. How many bowlers had 400 + test wickets in the 90s? How many have now ?
How many English bowlers had 400 wickets and 10k runs until now? And this decade we have 2 English bowlers over 400 and 1 reaching 10K with another one looking well set for 10K runs.


In this era, 400 for Ashwin who is almost close to 200 is indeed an underestimation. I see him getting over 500 and the question for me is whether he can surpass Kumble or not.