Can Ashwin beat Murali's 800?

[viriya]

183 wickets in 33 tests at 29 years old.

If he plays till he's 39 (not that crazy to think as a spinner), and plays 10 tests a year on average (probably a low estimate), he will get 555 more wickets at the current wkts/match rate.

That gets him to 738.

That's ignoring that he is entering his prime now, but I guess his wkts/match will also taper off after 35/36 or so as well.

My guess is probably not, but definitely possible.

Thoughts?

 

[AldoRaine18]

No

 

[OverratedSanity]

Nope.

I think he could get 500 if things go well, but 800 is basically unreachable.

 

[anil1405]

Its pure speculation at this point and extremely unlikely too. Would've been fair if you asked 'Will Cook surpass Sachin's test runs tally?' coz Cook is more than half way through achieving that with considerable amount of time left in his career. Talking about possibility of Ashwin overtaking Murali is naive at this moment.

 

[vcs]

No way, needs to get much much better away from home to get even to 500.

 

[Burgey]

He'd need to play every test at home or away in the WI.

Plus, it'd be a dead set travesty.

 

[Howe_zat]

He's at a very high ebb in terms of wickets per match after his recent few matches. Extrapolating that for a hundred further tests would be extremely generous but you still came up 62 wickets short. Got to say no.

I think it does show why Murali's record could be broken in the future, but not by Ashwin.

 

[Daemon]

Lol he'll need 10 more years of taking 60 wickets a year to get there.

I'll be very happy with 400-500ish.

 

[Burgey]

If he gets to 500 he'll equal his number of press conferences.

 

[TheJediBrah]

IMO he'll need to improve on his record in Australia of 0.3 wickets per series @ 457.67 runs per wkt

 

[Motorwada]

IMO he'll need to improve on his record in Australia of 0.3 wickets per series @ 457.67 runs per wkt

Not really considering he has 21 wickets in Oz at 54.71 from 6 matches which is better than Murali's 12 at 75.41 in 5 matches.

On a more serious note, India play something like 14 matches a year. If he plays 9 years more and takes 4.5 wkts/match it comes to 750 and that's where I guess he'll end up - somewhere in the 700 range.

 

[Motorwada]

Lol he'll need 10 more years of taking 60 wickets a year to get there.

I'll be very happy with 400-500ish.

He'll surpass that quite easily. Harbhajan/Kumble have around that (Kumble has 600).

 

[flibbertyjibber]

No chance, will end with a very good record though.

 

[Black_Warrior]

I think a better question would be whether he would end up being India's highest wicket taker, in other words surpassing Kumble? I think he has a shot at that.

800 - probably not.

 

[Howsie]

Hellllllll no.

 

[TheJediBrah]

Not really considering he has 21 wickets in Oz at 54.71 from 6 matches which is better than Murali's 12 at 75.41 in 5 matches.

On a more serious note, India play something like 14 matches a year. If he plays 9 years more and takes 4.5 wkts/match it comes to 750 and that's where I guess he'll end up - somewhere in the 700 range.

You're assuming a lot. He could have a **** spell and get dropped by next year and hardly play again. He's really not that good a bowler and you never know what younger spinners could come through to take his place.

 

[91Jmay]

He won't take more than 400.

 

[AndrewB]

Not really considering he has 21 wickets in Oz at 54.71 from 6 matches which is better than Murali's 12 at 75.41 in 5 matches.

On a more serious note, India play something like 14 matches a year. If he plays 9 years more and takes 4.5 wkts/match it comes to 750 and that's where I guess he'll end up - somewhere in the 700 range.

India have sometimes played 14 Tests in a year, but usually don't: they played 96 matches in the last 10 years, and only 44 of those were in the last 5.

 

[Spikey]

If he gets to 500 he'll equal his number of press conferences.

no no, 500 only equals the number of press conferences he'll do during the next Australian tour

 

[Howe_zat]

no no, 500 only equals the number of press conferences he'll do during the next Australian tour

Lot of rain forecast?