DoG's Test Innings and Bowling Performances. Updates thread.

[Days of Grace]

Hmm, I don't think I like the way you've chosen to rate the quality of opposition bowling/batting. Career averages up to that point effectively just show the reputation of the bowlers at the time. Feel like a "average in last 20 games" metric or some similar rolling average would come closer to more accurately showing how good those players were on the day.

I have thought about this many times. Would you do it by home and away/neutral? What about at the start of a player’s career?

 

[capt_Luffy]

I have thought about this many times. Would you do it by home and away/neutral? What about at the start of a player’s career?

I think at the start of players career, you could consider their next 20 or so games; and I think it might even be better to consider like 10 matches before and 10 matches after the match and his performance in that timeframe. As for home and away, I think a 50/50 importance on both might be a good measure.

 

[Days of Grace]

I think at the start of players career, you could consider their next 20 or so games; and I think it might even be better to consider like 10 matches before and 10 matches after the match and his performance in that timeframe. As for home and away, I think a 50/50 importance on both might be a good measure.

I thought a 5 year period around the series in question would work well. For instance, for a series played in 2001, the performances of the opposition batsmen and bowlers from 1999-2003 would be used as a means of rating their strength. And records would be separated into home and away/neutral stats.

Unfortunately, it doesn't work well for the Australian attack in Kolkata 2001:

GD McGrath

53​

132​

18.34​

18.34​

4.56​

39​

6​

234​

0.2191​

103​

3​

MS Kasprowicz

2​

2​

89.00​

66.00​

14.71​

35​

6​

210​

0.1966​

139​

0​

SK Warne

45​

119​

23.55​

23.55​

5.10​

34​

6​

204​

0.1910​

152​

1​

JN Gillespie

38​

71​

29.39​

29.39​

5.80​

31​

6​

186​

0.1742​

115​

2​

ME Waugh

18​

6​

59.50​

59.50​

6.82​

18​

6​

108​

0.1011​

58​

0​

RT Ponting

12​

6​

72​

0.0674​

41​

0​

ML Hayden

6​

6​

36​

0.0337​

24​

0​

MJ Slater

2​

6​

12​

0.0112​

4​

0​

JL Langer

1​

6​

6​

0.0056​

3​

0​

36.99​

1068​

942​

Kasprowicz only bowled in the one match away from 1999-2003 and his stats are like the ****oo in the nest for this attack.

I could introduce a formula where if you bowl in less than 20 innings, your average will regress to the era mean (in this case 33.00) depending on how many innings you bowl in, no matter if your average is lower or higher than the mean.

I also don't like how Warne is rated at 23.55 here. In 2001 he was at an all-time low in his bowling and he didn't really pull it back together until 2004.

 

[Days of Grace]

Here is a top 10 batting list in which the opposition bowling attack is rated on the home or away/neutral records of bowlers in the five calander years up to and including the series in question. Notice how the top 4 are all "away" innings now.

1​	MDKJ Perera	153*	South Africa	23.97	774	Durban	2019	4	Won	1 wkt	21.05
2​	OJD Pope	196	India	19.16	919	Hyderabad	2024	3	Won	28 runs	20.66
3​	V Sehwag	201*	Sri Lanka	23.53	787	Galle	2008	1	Won	170 runs	20.50
4​	KR Mayers	210*	Bangladesh	27.04	655	Chattogram	2021	4	Won	3 wkts	20.21
5​	IT Botham	149*	Australia	26.75	664	Leeds	1981	3	Won	18 runs	19.95
6​	BC Lara	153*	Australia	25.42	706	Bridgetown	1999	4	Won	1 wkt	19.29
7​	GA Gooch	154*	West Indies	24.11	747	Leeds	1991	3	Won	115 runs	19.22
8​	VVS Laxman	281	Australia	29.75	599	Kolkata	2001	3	Won	171 runs	19.07
9​	DG Bradman	270	England	29.58	604	Melbourne	1937	3	Won	365 runs	18.78
10​	BA Stokes	135*	Australia	27.38	644	Leeds	2019	4	Won	1 wkt	18.01

 

[Xix2565]

Here is a top 10 batting list in which the opposition bowling attack is rated on the home or away/neutral records of bowlers in the five calander years up to and including the series in question. Notice how the top 4 are all "away" innings now.

1​	MDKJ Perera	153*	South Africa	23.97	774	Durban	2019	4	Won	1 wkt	21.05
2​	OJD Pope	196	India	19.16	919	Hyderabad	2024	3	Won	28 runs	20.66
3​	V Sehwag	201*	Sri Lanka	23.53	787	Galle	2008	1	Won	170 runs	20.50
4​	KR Mayers	210*	Bangladesh	27.04	655	Chattogram	2021	4	Won	3 wkts	20.21
5​	IT Botham	149*	Australia	26.75	664	Leeds	1981	3	Won	18 runs	19.95
6​	BC Lara	153*	Australia	25.42	706	Bridgetown	1999	4	Won	1 wkt	19.29
7​	GA Gooch	154*	West Indies	24.11	747	Leeds	1991	3	Won	115 runs	19.22
8​	VVS Laxman	281	Australia	29.75	599	Kolkata	2001	3	Won	171 runs	19.07
9​	DG Bradman	270	England	29.58	604	Melbourne	1937	3	Won	365 runs	18.78
10​	BA Stokes	135*	Australia	27.38	644	Leeds	2019	4	Won	1 wkt	18.01

Some of those bowling ratings don't feel real, incredible to see. Did you find the highest batting innings in a loss with this also?

 

[Days of Grace]

Some of those bowling ratings don't feel real, incredible to see. Did you find the highest batting innings in a loss with this also?

Michael Clarke's 151 (15.96)

The South African attack (based on home record 2007-2011)

Adj. Ave.

VD Philander

4​

14​

13.92​

29.18​

8.88​

21​

6​

126​

0.2800​

63​

3​

DW Steyn

37​

115​

19.93​

19.93​

5.78​

20​

6​

120​

0.2667​

55​

4​

M Morkel

25​

56​

25.87​

25.87​

6.75​

18​

6​

108​

0.2400​

82​

3​

Imran Tahir

3​

4​

38.25​

33.79​

4.90​

10​

6​

60​

0.1333​

35​

0​

JH Kallis

6​

6​

36​

0.0800​

37​

0​

26.30​

 

[OverratedSanity]

Here is a top 10 batting list in which the opposition bowling attack is rated on the home or away/neutral records of bowlers in the five calander years up to and including the series in question. Notice how the top 4 are all "away" innings now.

1​	MDKJ Perera	153*	South Africa	23.97	774	Durban	2019	4	Won	1 wkt	21.05
2​	OJD Pope	196	India	19.16	919	Hyderabad	2024	3	Won	28 runs	20.66
3​	V Sehwag	201*	Sri Lanka	23.53	787	Galle	2008	1	Won	170 runs	20.50
4​	KR Mayers	210*	Bangladesh	27.04	655	Chattogram	2021	4	Won	3 wkts	20.21
5​	IT Botham	149*	Australia	26.75	664	Leeds	1981	3	Won	18 runs	19.95
6​	BC Lara	153*	Australia	25.42	706	Bridgetown	1999	4	Won	1 wkt	19.29
7​	GA Gooch	154*	West Indies	24.11	747	Leeds	1991	3	Won	115 runs	19.22
8​	VVS Laxman	281	Australia	29.75	599	Kolkata	2001	3	Won	171 runs	19.07
9​	DG Bradman	270	England	29.58	604	Melbourne	1937	3	Won	365 runs	18.78
10​	BA Stokes	135*	Australia	27.38	644	Leeds	2019	4	Won	1 wkt	18.01

Wait hahaha how is Bangladesh's attack in the Mayers innings rated higher than Australia in the laxman innings?

 

[Bahnz]

Here is a top 10 batting list in which the opposition bowling attack is rated on the home or away/neutral records of bowlers in the five calander years up to and including the series in question. Notice how the top 4 are all "away" innings now.

1​	MDKJ Perera	153*	South Africa	23.97	774	Durban	2019	4	Won	1 wkt	21.05
2​	OJD Pope	196	India	19.16	919	Hyderabad	2024	3	Won	28 runs	20.66
3​	V Sehwag	201*	Sri Lanka	23.53	787	Galle	2008	1	Won	170 runs	20.50
4​	KR Mayers	210*	Bangladesh	27.04	655	Chattogram	2021	4	Won	3 wkts	20.21
5​	IT Botham	149*	Australia	26.75	664	Leeds	1981	3	Won	18 runs	19.95
6​	BC Lara	153*	Australia	25.42	706	Bridgetown	1999	4	Won	1 wkt	19.29
7​	GA Gooch	154*	West Indies	24.11	747	Leeds	1991	3	Won	115 runs	19.22
8​	VVS Laxman	281	Australia	29.75	599	Kolkata	2001	3	Won	171 runs	19.07
9​	DG Bradman	270	England	29.58	604	Melbourne	1937	3	Won	365 runs	18.78
10​	BA Stokes	135*	Australia	27.38	644	Leeds	2019	4	Won	1 wkt	18.01

Where does Cameron Green's innings rank from. The recent test series? Feels like it would be reasonably high up given his individual total was comparable to the team innings scores in the other 3 innings.

 

[OverratedSanity]

Michael Clarke's 151 (15.96)

The South African attack (based on home record 2007-2011)

Adj. Ave.

VD Philander

4​

14​

13.92​

29.18​

8.88​

21​

6​

126​

0.2800​

63​

3​

DW Steyn

37​

115​

19.93​

19.93​

5.78​

20​

6​

120​

0.2667​

55​

4​

M Morkel

25​

56​

25.87​

25.87​

6.75​

18​

6​

108​

0.2400​

82​

3​

Imran Tahir

3​

4​

38.25​

33.79​

4.90​

10​

6​

60​

0.1333​

35​

0​

JH Kallis

6​

6​

36​

0.0800​

37​

0​

26.30​

Have you checked Markram's hundred vs India in the second test earlier this year? Mukesh and Prasidh being in the attack could bring it down but the pitch was bonkers.

 

[Line and Length]

"What made Kumble's 10fer better than Laker's 10fer?

A better batting lineup."

Pakistan's batting line-up may have a better average batting average (38.63 to 33.81) but Kumble conceded twice as many runs 74 to 37.

 

[Spark]

Michael Clarke's 151 (15.96)

The South African attack (based on home record 2007-2011)

Adj. Ave.

VD Philander

4​

14​

13.92​

29.18​

8.88​

21​

6​

126​

0.2800​

63​

3​

DW Steyn

37​

115​

19.93​

19.93​

5.78​

20​

6​

120​

0.2667​

55​

4​

M Morkel

25​

56​

25.87​

25.87​

6.75​

18​

6​

108​

0.2400​

82​

3​

Imran Tahir

3​

4​

38.25​

33.79​

4.90​

10​

6​

60​

0.1333​

35​

0​

JH Kallis

6​

6​

36​

0.0800​

37​

0​

26.30​

Still the most comically OP innings I've watched live.

 

[Xix2565]

Wait hahaha how is Bangladesh's attack in the Mayers innings rated higher than Australia in the laxman innings?

Some random bowlers like Shane Warne, Mark Waugh, Michael Kasprowicz and Ricky Ponting bowled too much overs probably.

 

[Days of Grace]

Wait hahaha how is Bangladesh's attack in the Mayers innings rated higher than Australia in the laxman innings?

Because Bangladesh bowlers had a very good record at home from 2017-2021.

 

[Days of Grace]

A better batting lineup."

Pakistan's batting line-up may have a better average batting average (38.63 to 33.81) but Kumble conceded twice as many runs 74 to 37.

Laker actually took 10/53 compared to Kumble's 10/74.

 

[Days of Grace]

Here is a top 10 batting list in which the opposition bowling attack is rated on the performances of the bowlers in ALL conditions in the five calendar years up to and including the series in question.

1​	MDKJ Perera	153*	South Africa	24.13	769	Durban	2019	4	Won	1 wkt	21.00
2​	OJD Pope	196	India	21.16	859	Hyderabad	2024	3	Won	28 runs	20.66
3​	IT Botham	149*	Australia	25.44	705	Leeds	1981	3	Won	18 runs	20.36
4​	BC Lara	153*	Australia	22.75	789	Bridgetown	1999	4	Won	1 wkt	20.12
5​	V Sehwag	201*	Sri Lanka	25.24	735	Galle	2008	1	Won	170 runs	19.99
6​	VVS Laxman	281	Australia	28.80	627	Kolkata	2001	3	Won	171 runs	19.35
7​	GA Gooch	154*	West Indies	24.15	745	Leeds	1991	3	Won	115 runs	19.20
8​	ST Jayasuriya	253	Pakistan	32.09	527	Faisalabad	2004	3	Won	201 runs	18.71
9​	KR Mayers	210*	Bangladesh	33.46	486	Chattogram	2021	4	Won	3 wkts	18.52
10​	BA Stokes	135*	Australia	27.23	675	Leeds	2019	4	Won	1 wkt	18.32

 

[Nintendo]

Here is a top 10 batting list in which the opposition bowling attack is rated on the performances of the bowlers in ALL conditions in the five calendar years up to and including the series in question.

1​	MDKJ Perera	153*	South Africa	24.13	769	Durban	2019	4	Won	1 wkt	21.00
2​	OJD Pope	196	India	21.16	859	Hyderabad	2024	3	Won	28 runs	20.66
3​	IT Botham	149*	Australia	25.44	705	Leeds	1981	3	Won	18 runs	20.36
4​	BC Lara	153*	Australia	22.75	789	Bridgetown	1999	4	Won	1 wkt	20.12
5​	V Sehwag	201*	Sri Lanka	25.24	735	Galle	2008	1	Won	170 runs	19.99
6​	VVS Laxman	281	Australia	28.80	627	Kolkata	2001	3	Won	171 runs	19.35
7​	GA Gooch	154*	West Indies	24.15	745	Leeds	1991	3	Won	115 runs	19.20
8​	ST Jayasuriya	253	Pakistan	32.09	527	Faisalabad	2004	3	Won	201 runs	18.71
9​	KR Mayers	210*	Bangladesh	33.46	486	Chattogram	2021	4	Won	3 wkts	18.52
10​	BA Stokes	135*	Australia	27.23	675	Leeds	2019	4	Won	1 wkt	18.32

Where does green's 170 rate?

 

[Days of Grace]

Where does green's 170 rate?

15.20, which puts him well inside the top 100!

 

[Days of Grace]

Have you checked Markram's hundred vs India in the second test earlier this year? Mukesh and Prasidh being in the attack could bring it down but the pitch was bonkers.

14.77 so he squeezes into the top 100!

 

[Line and Length]

Laker actually took 10/53 compared to Kumble's 10/74.

Sorry. I confused it with his 9 for 37

 

[Days of Grace]

I think at the start of players career, you could consider their next 20 or so games; and I think it might even be better to consider like 10 matches before and 10 matches after the match and his performance in that timeframe. As for home and away, I think a 50/50 importance on both might be a good measure.

Can I ask what you mean by a 50/50 importance on home/away?

What if the match is played at home in 2002? Will the bowler’s home performances from 2000-2004 be measured? Or should I count all performances from 2000-2004? The former runs the risk of sample size lol issues and the latter has issues such as Jim Laker averaging under 15 from 1956-1960. He was a totally different prospect to face in England compared to anywhere else.

I honestly think I should just rate attacks on career home/away averages and be done with it. That irons out all peaks and troughs that players normally go through.