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The Points Table/Standings

centurymaker

centurymaker

Cricketer Of The Year
Australia looking likely to finish on 6+ wins

Have won 2 games with Netherlands to come. Then later on if they can beat both Afghanistan and Bangladesh at Pune and Mumbai (batting pitches), that gives them 5 wins.

To get 6 wins, they must beat either New Zealand at Dharmashala or England at Ahmedabad. I think that looks quite doable so imo they are likely to make the cut.
 
Owzat

Owzat

U19 Captain
Interesting stat, regardless of inserting or chosing to bat, the side winning the toss has LOST SIXTEEN of the 20 games so far.

No side has elected to bat and won so far, maybe why England decided against but then might not be batting first = loss, just those chose to bat first chose wrong! (or wouldn't have mattered, the opponent was too good)

Batted first
Won toss : P5 W0 L5
Lost toss : P15 W11 L4

Bowled first
Won toss : P15 W4 L11
Lost toss : P5 W5 L0

Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Holland have won most tosses (3), India and Pakistan the least (1) As you can see from the above, or work out easily anyway, batting first has won 11 games to batting seconds' 9. Chasing however is easier if playing a weaker opponent, as is defending a total naturally

Won batting first vs AFG/BAN/HOL/SRL (5/11) : PAK, SAF, NZL (x2), ENG
Won batting second vs AFG/BAN/HOL/SRL (4/9) : PAK, IND, NZL, IND

About evens/just under half so the significance of batting first or second is going to be down to a number of factors, not least conditions.
 
L

loterry1994

International Debutant
5 wins looks like it’ll definitely be enough to make a top 4 spot. Could even be enough for two teams just depends how dominate india and nz finish
 
Q

Qlder

International Debutant
Round 5 possibilities for top 4

1. India has locked in #1 with win over NZ

2. SA win over BAN should give them #2 over NZ on NRR. Otherwise NZ #2

3. As above, NZ or SA will be #3

4. AUS vs NED and PAK vs AFG will decide #4. If both AUS and PAK win as expected NRR to determine with AUS currently having better NRR (if one of AUS or PAK lose the other team will be clear #4)

Noone else can get top 4 in round 5 unless both PAK and AUS lose heavily
 
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GIMH

GIMH

Norwood's on Fire
Qlder said:
Round 5 possibilities for top 4

1. India has locked in #1 with win over NZ

2. SA win over BAN should give them #2 over NZ on NRR. Otherwise NZ #2

3. As above, NZ or SA will be #3

4. AUS vs NED and PAK vs AFG will decide #4. If both AUS and PAK win as expected NRR to determine with AUS currently having better NRR (if one of AUS or PAK lose the other team will be clear #4)

Noone else can get top 4 in round 5 unless both PAK and AUS lose heavily
Click to expand...
England will beat SL, Ned, Pak and Aus heavily, and India narrowly.
 
silentstriker

silentstriker

The Wheel is Forever
Why is india locked in over nz? Nz still has higher NRR and while india has the easier schedule going forward, I think NRR is the tiebreaker not head to head? If they finish on equal wins?
 
R

R!TTER

State Regular
NZ is likely to drop a game or two against Oz, Pak & SA - Oz should start as favorites against them regardless of conditions & SA could also win if their batting clicks, Pak is maybe a 50/50 at best. India on current form should beat ENG, SA is 50/50 & the other two should be easy wins. So 6-7 wins is probably realistic for NZ & 8-9 for us.
 
centurymaker

centurymaker

Cricketer Of The Year
NZ could finish 4th if they don't win against Aus and SA.

And the match vs Pakistan on 4th Nov could turn into a mini playoff game.
 
silentstriker

silentstriker

The Wheel is Forever
R!TTER said:
NZ is likely to drop a game or two against Oz, Pak & SA - Oz should start as favorites against them regardless of conditions & SA could also win if their batting clicks, Pak is maybe a 50/50 at best. India on current form should beat ENG, SA is 50/50 & the other two should be easy wins. So 6-7 wins is probably realistic for NZ & 8-9 for us.
Click to expand...
I would not be surprised if India lose to both England and SA. They’ll be favorites in both games but it’s do or die for England this Sunday so they’ll be up for that game and may get past. SA as you say can also go either way.

I do agree with you in general, on balance of probabilities, it is likely India will be the number one seed, but it is far from guaranteed. And it is not difficult to see situstions where it could come down to NRR to figure out 1v2 seed etc.
 
Victor Ian

Victor Ian

International Coach
Once they are assured it's also possible to rest any niggles and give another a run for finals depth. 11 on the Trott will be a magnificent feat for India...

If this world cup counted.
 
Molehill

Molehill

Cricketer Of The Year
Would it be a ridiculous comment to say that the 4 semi finalists are looking nailed on to be India, NZ, SA, Aus? I'd even go so far as to say India/Aus and NZ/SA semis such is the likely points and NRR's too.

We're not even halfway through the group stage - could be long and tiresome for those of us whose teams have decided to be rubbish.
 
L

loterry1994

International Debutant
Molehill said:
Would it be a ridiculous comment to say that the 4 semi finalists are looking nailed on to be India, NZ, SA, Aus? I'd even go so far as to say India/Aus and NZ/SA semis such is the likely points and NRR's too.

We're not even halfway through the group stage - could be long and tiresome for those of us whose teams have decided to be rubbish.
Click to expand...
Australia aren’t a lock yet they haven’t looked great so far England and New Zealand will be desperate to beat them
 
Molehill

Molehill

Cricketer Of The Year
loterry1994 said:
Australia aren’t a lock yet they haven’t looked great so far England and New Zealand will be desperate to beat them
Click to expand...
True, but they also have Afghan, Netherlands, Bang still to play too. That should get them to 5 wins. England will need to beat India to get above them (which to be honest is the kind of stupid thing they might do) such is their woeful NRR after that SA loss. But seems unlikely.

Pakistan probably have more chance of challenging Aus for that 4th spot, but they'd need to win today.....
 
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