Above Expectations and a Basic MVP Model - The Fast Bowlers

[shortpitched713]

ESR is the piece that is making it strike bowler oriented.

So for spinners, it is a wonder whether to include it at all in a comparison with other spinners. I guess it would make sense to, ultimately.

Just need to get these cricinfo filters working then, and could get it done for some spinners.

 

[shortpitched713]

So, took the original model formulation, and plugged in a handful of modernish retired spinners into it. I compared them to fast bowlers, except with a small tweak. I took into account how difficult spin bowling is compared to pace bowling in the sub-era in which a bowler played, compared to the overall modern era, then adjusted the Expected Averages and Expected Strike Rates accordingly. Ultimately that gave them the same high bar to clear that the pacers had, but accounted for any funkiness in their sub era related to difficulty of seam vs spin. Some pretty expected results to follow:

Player	EA SCORE	SR SCORE	YA u35 (3 tests)	YA u30 (3 tests)	YA u25 (3 tests)	YA u20 (3 tests)	Impact Pts	WPM	5w	SCORE
Muttiah Muralitharan	33.11​	6.1​	14​	12​	11​	6​	95​	6.02​	67​	277.965​
Shane Warne	43.26​	5.9​	12​	7​	7​	2​	55​	4.88​	37​	211.59​
A Kumble	-12.99​	-6.5​	14​	11​	4​	2​	56​	4.69​	35​	137.9​
Derek Underwood	16.71​	-7.875​	9​	7​	5​	3​	50​	3.45​	17​	126.565​
Lance Gibbs	7.16​	-24.525​	11​	9​	5​	0​	44​	3.91​	18​	111.84​

Seems about right, although notable that only Murali and Warne end up with a positive SR Score. The main way they got points though ( especially Murali ) is through the Impact points and 5W hauls. Still, roughly comparable to pacers, all considered, and Murali and Warne end up slotting here in a combined list:

Player SCORE
Glenn McGrath 279.38
Richard Hadlee 278.80
Muttiah Muralitharan 277.97
Dale Steyn 261.16
Curtly Ambrose 254.10
Malcolm Marshall 234.91
George Lohmann 234.71
Allan Donald 233.16
Sydney Barnes 224.67
Wasim Akram 221.17
Shane Warne 211.59
Courtney Walsh 204.46
Imran Khan 204.25
Waqar Younis 198.31
Joel Garner 197.86

Not a bad result. One has to say, in the end, the lack of Philander in the top 15 really does raise some question-marks on the model, as a catch all bowler value metric.

Edit: Also, did do Grimmett and O'Reilly as well initially. But given the difference in averages and strike rates in their eras for spinners and pacers being so foreign from how they are now, even I didn't feel comfortable with how my methodology treated their overrated asses so I omitted them from here, but anyway, Grimmett ended up at around 115, and O'Reilly over 85 so yeah not a great showing.

 

[The Sean]

So on the basis of this particular analysis, linking back to kyear's thread about best four-man attacks the answer is:

McGrath-Hadlee-Steyn-Murali.

Which, as it happens, wasn't actually presented as an option.

 

[kyear2]

So on the basis of this particular analysis, linking back to kyear's thread about best four-man attacks the answer is:

McGrath-Hadlee-Steyn-Murali.

Which, as it happens, wasn't actually presented as an option.

What kyear's thread was trying to do was get feedback for his personal XI, but everyone kept asking to add options. Was to be literally 3.

And for reasons already stayed, that wouldn't be my selection.

 

[Prince EWS]

What kyear's thread was trying to do was get feedback for his personal XI, but everyone kept asking to add options. Was to be literally 3.

And for reasons already stayed, that wouldn't be my selection.

Yeah you shouldn't have yielded when people kept asking for Murali options, it just confused the point of it. You obviously started the thread to talk about the balance of the fast bowling attack, not to talk about Warne vs Murali, and I don't think anyone would change which quicks they picked based on which spinner was there.

Was painful to read.

 

[The Sean]

What kyear's thread was trying to do was get feedback for his personal XI, but everyone kept asking to add options. Was to be literally 3.

And for reasons already stayed, that wouldn't be my selection.

Yeah, it wasn't meant as a criticism of you - I was linking the discussion between the two threads and pointing out that even with all the extra options you added, this particular permutation still wasn't one of them.

Personally I didn't think you should have added all the extra options anyway. You never claimed that it was a definitive list of exactly all of the best possible attacks in history, just that it was the combinations that you personally were deciding between. That should have been enough.

 

[shortpitched713]

Yeah you shouldn't have yielded when people kept asking for Murali options, it just confused the point of it. You obviously started the thread to talk about the balance of the fast bowling attack, not to talk about Warne vs Murali, and I don't think anyone would change which quicks they picked based on which spinner was there.

Don't make me post more Office memes at you.

 

[kyear2]

Yeah, it wasn't meant as a criticism of you - I was linking the discussion between the two threads and pointing out that even with all the extra options you added, this particular permutation still wasn't one of them.

Personally I didn't think you should have added all the extra options anyway. You never claimed that it was a definitive list of exactly all of the best possible attacks in history, just that it was the combinations that you personally were deciding between. That should have been enough.

Yeah, and lost the plot on the initial intent.

So basically there was the conventional trio, coincidentally the one that both of you selected.
Imran, Marshall, Warne, McGrath.
Strongest batting no 8, plus the leadership of Imran and preferential opening combo.
Then my personal preference
Marshall, Warne, Steyn, McGrath
To me the strongest attack of the three, but a little batting light. Though MM and Warne mitigates that a bit.
And finally the compromise in-between
Hadlee, Marshall, Steyn.
Firmly in the middle as to me the second strongest attack, and second strongest tail as well.

Anyways, back on topic,. @ Prince EWS Nice effort with the model and analysis

 

[shortpitched713]

Anyways, back on topic,. @ Prince EWS Nice effort with the model and analysis

Lol, it's @Flem274* 's model, and I expect he's going to tweak it, as soon as he gets the chance.

 

[The Sean]

FFS, @Prince EWS now running the forum to such an extent that he even gets the credit for other people's work.

 

[honestbharani]

FFS, @Prince EWS now running the forum to such an extent that he even gets the credit for other people's work.

The Libterarian Model

 

[shortpitched713]

Player	EA SCORE	SR SCORE	YA u35 (3 tests)	YA u30 (3 tests)	YA u25 (3 tests)	YA u20 (3 tests)	Impact Pts	WPM	5w	SCORE
Muttiah Muralitharan	33.11​	6.1​	14​	12​	11​	6​	95​	6.02​	67​	277.965​
Shane Warne	43.26​	5.9​	12​	7​	7​	2​	55​	4.88​	37​	211.59​
A Kumble	-12.99​	-6.5​	14​	11​	4​	2​	56​	4.69​	35​	137.9​
Derek Underwood	16.71​	-7.875​	9​	7​	5​	3​	50​	3.45​	17​	126.565​
Lance Gibbs	7.16​	-24.525​	11​	9​	5​	0​	44​	3.91​	18​	111.84​

Player	EA SCORE	SR SCORE	YA u35 (3 tests)	YA u30 (3 tests)	YA u25 (3 tests)	YA u20 (3 tests)	Impact Pts	WPM	5w	SCORE
Ravichandran Ashwin	17.93	3.3	11	11	8	3	69(nice)	5.2	34	185.2

Forgot to include him in initially with the other ATG spinners, as my filtering of late had been only retired players, but Ashwin also does pretty nicely by this measure.

On the overall list, including pacers, a SCORE of 185.2 puts him in at 21, just behind Fred Trueman, and above Michael Holding.