Above Expectations and a Basic MVP Model - The Fast Bowlers

ZK$ · Feb 7, 2023

It looks good.

trundler · Feb 7, 2023

I see McGrath on top, I approve.

Flem274* · Feb 7, 2023

Shady Slim said:
could we take a peek behind the curtain at raw average against expected with no longevity bonus? would love to be able to see the raw numbers then use the longevity as more of a qualitative differentiator

Sorted by Expected Average Difference. Unsurprisingly the short term Gods feature prominently here within the usual suspects of the greats. Ryan Sidebottom and Ben Hilfenhaus were expected to be the worst bowlers on this list. Credit to them for being quite decent tbh.

Player	Average	NH Ave	EA	E NH Ave	EA Diff	NH EA Diff
Shane Bond	22.09	25.05	33.93	36.88	11.84	11.83
Jack Cowie	21.53	25.63	33.13	36.46	11.6	10.83
Stuart Clark	23.86	24.55	33.81	36.71	9.95	12.16
Glenn McGrath	21.64	20.81	31.51	33.66	9.87	12.85
George Lohmann	10.75	8.96	20.29	20.18	9.54	11.22
Mohammad Asif	24.36	22.5	33.77	36.3	9.41	13.8
Sydney Barnes	16.43	17.96	25.66	26.92	9.23	8.96
Dale Steyn	22.95	24.91	32.14	34.99	9.19	10.08
Ryan Harris	23.52	22.48	32.5	35.15	8.98	12.67
Shaun Pollock	23.11	25.68	31.97	34.7	8.86	9.02
Joel Garner	20.97	19.74	29.64	31.03	8.67	11.29
Malcolm Marshall	20.94	21.57	29.6	30.99	8.66	9.42
Pat Cummins	21.25	22.83	29.89	33.09	8.64	10.26
Curtly Ambrose	20.99	20.78	29.57	30.62	8.58	9.84
Allan Donald	22.25	22.96	30.15	31.62	7.9	8.66
Frank Tyson	18.56	18.96	26.39	26.68	7.83	7.72
Richard Hadlee	22.29	21.72	29.78	30.83	7.49	9.11
Ollie Robinson	20.01	23.6	27.37	29.37	7.36	5.77
Bill Johnston	23.91	26.33	31	31.75	7.09	5.42
Imran Khan	22.81	25.76	29.67	30.98	6.86	5.22
Alan Davidson	20.53	20.1	27.31	29.02	6.78	8.92
Waqar Younis	23.56	26.06	30.3	32.43	6.74	6.37
Fred Trueman	21.57	26.08	28.2	29.53	6.63	3.45
Shoiab Akhtar	25.69	25.01	32.24	34.94	6.55	9.93
Wasim Akram	23.62	24.44	30.13	31.71	6.51	7.27
Vernon Philander	24.04	28.37	30.31	33.51	6.27	5.14
Neil Adcock	21.1	23.3	27.24	28.32	6.14	5.02
Peter Pollock	24.18	22.23	30.04	31.55	5.86	9.32
Keith Miller	22.97	25.48	28.8	30.54	5.83	5.06
Ryan Sidebottom	28.24	31.46	34.02	36.39	5.78	4.93
Kagiso Rabada	22.85	27.19	28.62	31.95	5.77	4.76
Ian Bishop	24.27	24.05	29.97	31.34	5.7	7.29
Jason Gillespie	26.13	27.21	31.81	33.96	5.68	6.75
Michael Holding	23.68	23.65	29.35	31.15	5.67	7.5
Bruce Reid	24.63	37.89	30.26	31.33	5.63	-6.56
Ben Hilfenhaus	28.5	30.73	34.08	35.5	5.58	4.77
James Anderson	26.13	30.21	31.7	34.58	5.57	4.37
Bhuvneshwar Kumar	26.09	26	31.59	34.77	5.5	8.77
Dennis Lillee	23.92	24.28	29.3	30.7	5.38	6.42
Courtney Walsh	24.44	25.03	29.77	31.12	5.33	6.09
Ray Lindwall	23.03	23.95	28.09	29.35	5.06	5.4
Jasprit Bumrah	21.99	22.77	27	30.18	5.01	7.41
Mitchell Johnson	28.4	31.92	33.29	35.87	4.89	3.95
Morne Morkel	27.66	29.15	32.49	35.44	4.83	6.29
Harold Larwood	28.35	26.82	32.76	32.18	4.41	5.36
Bruce Taylor	26.6	23.97	30.9	31.6	4.3	7.63
Mohammad Abbas	23.02	22.96	27.2	30.4	4.18	7.44
Bob Willis	25.2	27.2	29.33	30.64	4.13	3.44
Alec Bedser	24.89	32.98	28.94	30.59	4.05	-2.39
James Pattinson	26.33	33.15	30.29	33.6	3.96	0.45
Makhaya Ntini	28.82	37.27	32.77	35.42	3.95	-1.85
John Snow	26.66	20.91	30.52	31.24	3.86	10.33
Charlie Turner	16.53	19.34	20.07	20.38	3.54	1.04
Brian Statham	24.84	27.79	28.27	29.66	3.43	1.87
Wes Hall	26.38	26.73	29.78	30.96	3.4	4.23
Khan Mohammad	23.92	52.08	27.29	28.61	3.37	-23.47
Max Walker	27.47	26.3	30.8	31.12	3.33	4.82
Kemar Roach	27.2	40.23	30.48	33.54	3.28	-6.69
Andy Roberts	25.61	23.87	28.81	30.46	3.2	6.59
Josh Hazlewood	25.83	27.76	29.02	32.25	3.19	4.49
Stuart Broad	27.77	31.31	30.89	33.75	3.12	2.44
Terry Alderman	27.15	25.64	30.24	31.67	3.09	6.03
Heath Streak	28.14	30.83	31.23	33.23	3.09	2.4
Mohammad Nissar	28.28	26.55	31.34	30.82	3.06	4.27
Frederick Spofforth	18.41	17.13	21.42	21.48	3.01	4.35
Trevor Goddard	26.22	25.06	29.2	30.38	2.98	5.32
Paul Reiffel	26.96	24.5	29.84	30.74	2.88	6.24
Neil Wagner	26.9	28.41	29.7	33	2.8	4.59
Shaheen Afridi	24.86	23.68	27.58	30.76	2.72	7.08
Fazal Mahmood	24.7	30.47	27.41	29.16	2.71	-1.31
Matthew Hoggard	30.5	30.26	33.2	36.43	2.7	6.17
Mitchell Starc	27.26	29.06	29.83	33.02	2.57	3.96
Angus Fraser	27.32	25.42	29.83	31.38	2.51	5.96
Geoff Arnold	28.29	36.55	30.67	31.16	2.38	-5.39
Chaminda Vaas	29.58	32.92	31.93	34.19	2.35	1.27
Trent Boult	27.49	30.45	29.81	33	2.32	2.55
Brett Lee	30.81	33.95	32.84	35.67	2.03	1.72
Darren Gough	28.39	26.9	30.42	32.36	2.03	5.46
Hasan Ali	25.67	23.23	27.68	31.09	2.01	7.86
Steven Finn	30.4	34.06	32.38	34.51	1.98	0.45
Mohammad Shami	27.45	30.23	29.42	32.83	1.97	2.6
Merv Hughes	28.38	30.63	30.31	31.33	1.93	0.7
Steve Harmison	31.82	36.61	33.72	36.31	1.9	-0.3
Tim Southee	29.1	32.03	30.99	33.8	1.89	1.77
Andre Nel	31.86	32.96	33.67	36.49	1.81	3.53
Asif Iqbal	28.33	26.06	29.94	31.18	1.61	5.12
Jeff Thomson	28	33.49	29.53	30.93	1.53	-2.56
Alan Connolly	29.22	24.66	30.75	31.28	1.53	6.62
Chris Cairns	29.4	30.44	30.89	32.96	1.49	2.52
Irfan Pathan	32.26	25.57	33.73	36.48	1.47	10.91
Craig McDermott	28.63	32.88	30.06	31.09	1.43	-1.79
Dion Nash	28.48	27.17	29.84	31.24	1.36	4.07
Peter Siddle	30.66	34.36	31.99	34.82	1.33	0.46
Mohammad Amir	30.47	30.47	31.54	34.41	1.07	3.94
Kyle Jarvis	29.43	22.76	30.49	33.69	1.06	10.93
Ian Botham	28.4	29.63	29.42	31	1.02	1.37
Dominic Cork	29.81	31.66	30.74	32.96	0.93	1.3
Richard Collinge	29.25	41.22	30.05	31.12	0.8	-10.1
Lasith Malinga	33.15	33.34	33.76	36.22	0.61	2.88
Chris Old	28.11	29.6	28.72	29.82	0.61	0.22
Andrew Caddick	29.91	29.7	30.44	32.28	0.53	2.58
Zaheer Khan	32.94	31.47	33.4	36.25	0.46	4.78
Simon Doull	29.3	29.7	29.72	30.91	0.42	1.21
Rodney Hogg	28.47	44.84	28.82	30.15	0.35	-14.69
Graham McKenzie	29.78	29.13	30.12	31.37	0.34	2.24
Kapil Dev	29.64	32.85	29.79	31.16	0.15	-1.69
Andrew Flintoff	32.78	29.69	32.73	35.31	-0.05	5.62
Javagal Srinath	30.49	33.76	30.43	32.18	-0.06	-1.58
Chris Martin	33.81	38.54	33.73	36.3	-0.08	-2.24
Jason Holder	29.39	40.23	29.19	32.46	-0.2	-7.77
Umar Gul	34.06	37.29	33.81	36.29	-0.25	-1
Jacques Kallis	32.65	35.3	32.38	34.94	-0.27	-0.36
Tony Greig	32.2	28.09	31.92	32.19	-0.28	4.1
Graham Dilley	29.76	33.5	29.4	30.2	-0.36	-3.3
Umesh Yadav	30.2	37.58	29.81	33.01	-0.39	-4.57
Geoff Lawson	30.56	33.88	29.91	30.7	-0.65	-3.18
Dick Motz	31.48	33.69	30.54	32.12	-0.94	-1.57
Michael Kasprowicz	32.88	34.65	31.8	34	-1.08	-0.65
Ishant Sharma	32.4	32.78	31.23	34.05	-1.17	1.27
Chris Woakes	30.73	51.88	29.41	32.72	-1.32	-19.16
Trevor Bailey	29.21	23.25	27.61	28.7	-1.6	5.45
Shannon Gabriel	31.84	38.36	29.97	33.08	-1.87	-5.28
Pedro Collins	34.63	38.48	32.44	34.73	-2.19	-3.75
Mark Wood	30.88	24.63	28.66	31.76	-2.22	7.13
Ben Stokes	31.99	33.18	29.34	32.62	-2.65	-0.56
Ewen Chatfield	32.17	33.84	29.41	30.5	-2.76	-3.34
Garfield Sobers	34.03	33.96	31.18	32.04	-2.85	-1.92
Jofra Archer	31.04	41.5	28.01	32.66	-3.03	-8.84
Phil DeFreitas	33.57	39.62	30.07	30.68	-3.5	-8.94
Sarfraz Nawaz	32.75	32.4	29.23	30.45	-3.52	-1.95
Vanburn Holder	33.27	32.95	29.63	30.5	-3.64	-2.45
Lance Cairns	32.92	38.4	29.26	30.84	-3.66	-7.56
Fidel Edwards	37.87	44.52	33.93	36.15	-3.94	-8.37
Abdul Razzaq	36.94	36.5	32.84	35.48	-4.1	-1.02
Dilhara Fernando	37.84	45.4	33.41	36.01	-4.43	-9.39
Aaqib Javed	34.7	40.52	30	31.34	-4.7	-9.18
Danny Morrison	34.68	54	29.88	30.72	-4.8	-23.28
Karsan Ghavri	33.54	38.25	28.45	29.53	-5.09	-8.72
Chetan Sharma	35.45	33.57	30.16	30.76	-5.29	-2.81
Venkatesh Prasad	35	36.46	29.59	31.37	-5.41	-5.09
George Giffen	27.09	30.54	21.47	21.06	-5.62	-9.48
Suranga Lakmal	36.44	33.27	30.04	33.16	-6.4	-0.11
Devon Malcolm	37.09	39.96	29.99	31.32	-7.1	-8.64
Manoj Prabhakar	37.3	39.15	30.08	30.97	-7.22	-8.18
Naseem Shah	36.14	49.8	28.41	31.7	-7.73	-18.1

Shady Slim · Feb 7, 2023

Flem274* said:
Sorted by Expected Average Difference. Unsurprisingly the short term Gods feature prominently here within the usual suspects of the greats. Ryan Sidebottom and Ben Hilfenhaus were expected to be the worst bowlers on this list. Credit to them for being quite decent tbh.

Player Average NH Ave EA E NH Ave EA Diff NH EA Diff
Shane Bond
22.09
25.05
33.93
36.88
11.84
11.83
Jack Cowie
21.53
25.63
33.13
36.46
11.6
10.83
Stuart Clark
23.86
24.55
33.81
36.71
9.95
12.16
Glenn McGrath
21.64
20.81
31.51
33.66
9.87
12.85
George Lohmann
10.75
8.96
20.29
20.18
9.54
11.22
Mohammad Asif
24.36
22.5
33.77
36.3
9.41
13.8
Sydney Barnes
16.43
17.96
25.66
26.92
9.23
8.96
Dale Steyn
22.95
24.91
32.14
34.99
9.19
10.08
Ryan Harris
23.52
22.48
32.5
35.15
8.98
12.67
Shaun Pollock
23.11
25.68
31.97
34.7
8.86
9.02
Joel Garner
20.97
19.74
29.64
31.03
8.67
11.29
Malcolm Marshall
20.94
21.57
29.6
30.99
8.66
9.42
Pat Cummins
21.25
22.83
29.89
33.09
8.64
10.26
Curtly Ambrose
20.99
20.78
29.57
30.62
8.58
9.84
Allan Donald
22.25
22.96
30.15
31.62
7.9
8.66
Frank Tyson
18.56
18.96
26.39
26.68
7.83
7.72
Richard Hadlee
22.29
21.72
29.78
30.83
7.49
9.11
Ollie Robinson
20.01
23.6
27.37
29.37
7.36
5.77
Bill Johnston
23.91
26.33
31
31.75
7.09
5.42
Imran Khan
22.81
25.76
29.67
30.98
6.86
5.22
Alan Davidson
20.53
20.1
27.31
29.02
6.78
8.92
Waqar Younis
23.56
26.06
30.3
32.43
6.74
6.37
Fred Trueman
21.57
26.08
28.2
29.53
6.63
3.45
Shoiab Akhtar
25.69
25.01
32.24
34.94
6.55
9.93
Wasim Akram
23.62
24.44
30.13
31.71
6.51
7.27
Vernon Philander
24.04
28.37
30.31
33.51
6.27
5.14
Neil Adcock
21.1
23.3
27.24
28.32
6.14
5.02
Peter Pollock
24.18
22.23
30.04
31.55
5.86
9.32
Keith Miller
22.97
25.48
28.8
30.54
5.83
5.06
Ryan Sidebottom
28.24
31.46
34.02
36.39
5.78
4.93
Kagiso Rabada
22.85
27.19
28.62
31.95
5.77
4.76
Ian Bishop
24.27
24.05
29.97
31.34
5.7
7.29
Jason Gillespie
26.13
27.21
31.81
33.96
5.68
6.75
Michael Holding
23.68
23.65
29.35
31.15
5.67
7.5
Bruce Reid
24.63
37.89
30.26
31.33
5.63
-6.56
Ben Hilfenhaus
28.5
30.73
34.08
35.5
5.58
4.77
James Anderson
26.13
30.21
31.7
34.58
5.57
4.37
Bhuvneshwar Kumar
26.09
26
31.59
34.77
5.5
8.77
Dennis Lillee
23.92
24.28
29.3
30.7
5.38
6.42
Courtney Walsh
24.44
25.03
29.77
31.12
5.33
6.09
Ray Lindwall
23.03
23.95
28.09
29.35
5.06
5.4
Jasprit Bumrah
21.99
22.77
27
30.18
5.01
7.41
Mitchell Johnson
28.4
31.92
33.29
35.87
4.89
3.95
Morne Morkel
27.66
29.15
32.49
35.44
4.83
6.29
Harold Larwood
28.35
26.82
32.76
32.18
4.41
5.36
Bruce Taylor
26.6
23.97
30.9
31.6
4.3
7.63
Mohammad Abbas
23.02
22.96
27.2
30.4
4.18
7.44
Bob Willis
25.2
27.2
29.33
30.64
4.13
3.44
Alec Bedser
24.89
32.98
28.94
30.59
4.05
-2.39
James Pattinson
26.33
33.15
30.29
33.6
3.96
0.45
Makhaya Ntini
28.82
37.27
32.77
35.42
3.95
-1.85
John Snow
26.66
20.91
30.52
31.24
3.86
10.33
Charlie Turner
16.53
19.34
20.07
20.38
3.54
1.04
Brian Statham
24.84
27.79
28.27
29.66
3.43
1.87
Wes Hall
26.38
26.73
29.78
30.96
3.4
4.23
Khan Mohammad
23.92
52.08
27.29
28.61
3.37
-23.47
Max Walker
27.47
26.3
30.8
31.12
3.33
4.82
Kemar Roach
27.2
40.23
30.48
33.54
3.28
-6.69
Andy Roberts
25.61
23.87
28.81
30.46
3.2
6.59
Josh Hazlewood
25.83
27.76
29.02
32.25
3.19
4.49
Stuart Broad
27.77
31.31
30.89
33.75
3.12
2.44
Terry Alderman
27.15
25.64
30.24
31.67
3.09
6.03
Heath Streak
28.14
30.83
31.23
33.23
3.09
2.4
Mohammad Nissar
28.28
26.55
31.34
30.82
3.06
4.27
Frederick Spofforth
18.41
17.13
21.42
21.48
3.01
4.35
Trevor Goddard
26.22
25.06
29.2
30.38
2.98
5.32
Paul Reiffel
26.96
24.5
29.84
30.74
2.88
6.24
Neil Wagner
26.9
28.41
29.7
33
2.8
4.59
Shaheen Afridi
24.86
23.68
27.58
30.76
2.72
7.08
Fazal Mahmood
24.7
30.47
27.41
29.16
2.71
-1.31
Matthew Hoggard
30.5
30.26
33.2
36.43
2.7
6.17
Mitchell Starc
27.26
29.06
29.83
33.02
2.57
3.96
Angus Fraser
27.32
25.42
29.83
31.38
2.51
5.96
Geoff Arnold
28.29
36.55
30.67
31.16
2.38
-5.39
Chaminda Vaas
29.58
32.92
31.93
34.19
2.35
1.27
Trent Boult
27.49
30.45
29.81
33
2.32
2.55
Brett Lee
30.81
33.95
32.84
35.67
2.03
1.72
Darren Gough
28.39
26.9
30.42
32.36
2.03
5.46
Hasan Ali
25.67
23.23
27.68
31.09
2.01
7.86
Steven Finn
30.4
34.06
32.38
34.51
1.98
0.45
Mohammad Shami
27.45
30.23
29.42
32.83
1.97
2.6
Merv Hughes
28.38
30.63
30.31
31.33
1.93
0.7
Steve Harmison
31.82
36.61
33.72
36.31
1.9
-0.3
Tim Southee
29.1
32.03
30.99
33.8
1.89
1.77
Andre Nel
31.86
32.96
33.67
36.49
1.81
3.53
Asif Iqbal
28.33
26.06
29.94
31.18
1.61
5.12
Jeff Thomson
28
33.49
29.53
30.93
1.53
-2.56
Alan Connolly
29.22
24.66
30.75
31.28
1.53
6.62
Chris Cairns
29.4
30.44
30.89
32.96
1.49
2.52
Irfan Pathan
32.26
25.57
33.73
36.48
1.47
10.91
Craig McDermott
28.63
32.88
30.06
31.09
1.43
-1.79
Dion Nash
28.48
27.17
29.84
31.24
1.36
4.07
Peter Siddle
30.66
34.36
31.99
34.82
1.33
0.46
Mohammad Amir
30.47
30.47
31.54
34.41
1.07
3.94
Kyle Jarvis
29.43
22.76
30.49
33.69
1.06
10.93
Ian Botham
28.4
29.63
29.42
31
1.02
1.37
Dominic Cork
29.81
31.66
30.74
32.96
0.93
1.3
Richard Collinge
29.25
41.22
30.05
31.12
0.8
-10.1
Lasith Malinga
33.15
33.34
33.76
36.22
0.61
2.88
Chris Old
28.11
29.6
28.72
29.82
0.61
0.22
Andrew Caddick
29.91
29.7
30.44
32.28
0.53
2.58
Zaheer Khan
32.94
31.47
33.4
36.25
0.46
4.78
Simon Doull
29.3
29.7
29.72
30.91
0.42
1.21
Rodney Hogg
28.47
44.84
28.82
30.15
0.35
-14.69
Graham McKenzie
29.78
29.13
30.12
31.37
0.34
2.24
Kapil Dev
29.64
32.85
29.79
31.16
0.15
-1.69
Andrew Flintoff
32.78
29.69
32.73
35.31
-0.05
5.62
Javagal Srinath
30.49
33.76
30.43
32.18
-0.06
-1.58
Chris Martin
33.81
38.54
33.73
36.3
-0.08
-2.24
Jason Holder
29.39
40.23
29.19
32.46
-0.2
-7.77
Umar Gul
34.06
37.29
33.81
36.29
-0.25
-1
Jacques Kallis
32.65
35.3
32.38
34.94
-0.27
-0.36
Tony Greig
32.2
28.09
31.92
32.19
-0.28
4.1
Graham Dilley
29.76
33.5
29.4
30.2
-0.36
-3.3
Umesh Yadav
30.2
37.58
29.81
33.01
-0.39
-4.57
Geoff Lawson
30.56
33.88
29.91
30.7
-0.65
-3.18
Dick Motz
31.48
33.69
30.54
32.12
-0.94
-1.57
Michael Kasprowicz
32.88
34.65
31.8
34
-1.08
-0.65
Ishant Sharma
32.4
32.78
31.23
34.05
-1.17
1.27
Chris Woakes
30.73
51.88
29.41
32.72
-1.32
-19.16
Trevor Bailey
29.21
23.25
27.61
28.7
-1.6
5.45
Shannon Gabriel
31.84
38.36
29.97
33.08
-1.87
-5.28
Pedro Collins
34.63
38.48
32.44
34.73
-2.19
-3.75
Mark Wood
30.88
24.63
28.66
31.76
-2.22
7.13
Ben Stokes
31.99
33.18
29.34
32.62
-2.65
-0.56
Ewen Chatfield
32.17
33.84
29.41
30.5
-2.76
-3.34
Garfield Sobers
34.03
33.96
31.18
32.04
-2.85
-1.92
Jofra Archer
31.04
41.5
28.01
32.66
-3.03
-8.84
Phil DeFreitas
33.57
39.62
30.07
30.68
-3.5
-8.94
Sarfraz Nawaz
32.75
32.4
29.23
30.45
-3.52
-1.95
Vanburn Holder
33.27
32.95
29.63
30.5
-3.64
-2.45
Lance Cairns
32.92
38.4
29.26
30.84
-3.66
-7.56
Fidel Edwards
37.87
44.52
33.93
36.15
-3.94
-8.37
Abdul Razzaq
36.94
36.5
32.84
35.48
-4.1
-1.02
Dilhara Fernando
37.84
45.4
33.41
36.01
-4.43
-9.39
Aaqib Javed
34.7
40.52
30
31.34
-4.7
-9.18
Danny Morrison
34.68
54
29.88
30.72
-4.8
-23.28
Karsan Ghavri
33.54
38.25
28.45
29.53
-5.09
-8.72
Chetan Sharma
35.45
33.57
30.16
30.76
-5.29
-2.81
Venkatesh Prasad
35
36.46
29.59
31.37
-5.41
-5.09
George Giffen
27.09
30.54
21.47
21.06
-5.62
-9.48
Suranga Lakmal
36.44
33.27
30.04
33.16
-6.4
-0.11
Devon Malcolm
37.09
39.96
29.99
31.32
-7.1
-8.64
Manoj Prabhakar
37.3
39.15
30.08
30.97
-7.22
-8.18
Naseem Shah
36.14
49.8
28.41
31.7
-7.73
-18.1

thank you so much!!

Shady Slim · Feb 7, 2023

Flem274* said:
Player Average NH Average EA EA(NH) EA Diff EA(NH) Diff

Ben Hilfenhaus
28.5
30.73
34.08
35.5
5.58
4.77
James Anderson
26.13
30.21
31.7
34.58
5.57
4.37

shortpitched713 · Feb 7, 2023

What is the definition of NH?

Coronis · Feb 7, 2023

shortpitched713 said:
What is the definition of NH?

Non-home I believe.

shortpitched713 · Feb 10, 2023

2 questions:

1) I really like the results of this, so when you do the spinners version, can you show an output which also is unadjusted, and uses the exact same metrics as this current fast bowlers list, just for comparison? Do you think every spinner not named Murali and Warne would just fade into irrelevence?

2) I was going to ask if you were figuring to do a batting version, but you answered it in the OP. Batting seems weird though, because a batsman can't increase their impact just by taking someone else's turn to bat, which is essentially what a bowler does when he bowls extended, or extra spells. I wonder how that will impact how one constructs the model. ?

Flem274* · Feb 10, 2023

shortpitched713 said:
2 questions:

1) I really like the results of this, so when you do the spinners version, can you show an output which also is unadjusted, and uses the exact same metrics as this current fast bowlers list, just for comparison? Do you think every spinner not named Murali and Warne would just fade into irrelevence?

2) I was going to ask if you were figuring to do a batting version, but you answered it in the OP. Batting seems weird though, because a batsman can't increase their impact just by taking someone else's turn to bat, which is essentially what a bowler does when he bowls extended, or extra spells. I wonder how that will impact how one constructs the model. ?

All bowlers are going to be on the same list but I've added a filter for pace/spin/mixed for looking at specific roles. I've started the spinners, and I think they will be just fine. One unexpected spinner has surprised me by cracking the 170 mark (where I called the line between great and ATVG) and I'm interested to re-evaluate him in light of it. I'll post the raw data as well.

The batting version will have the same core, and the hope is one day I can splice the lists together to make a true mvp list.

shortpitched713 · Feb 10, 2023

Flem274* said:
The batting version will have the same core, and the hope is one day I can splice the lists together to make a true mvp list.

Not sure how that would work, as surely the value of batsman vs bowler is more dependent on existing team composition than anything else?

honestbharani · Feb 11, 2023

Flem274* said:
All bowlers are going to be on the same list but I've added a filter for pace/spin/mixed for looking at specific roles. I've started the spinners, and I think they will be just fine. One unexpected spinner has surprised me by cracking the 170 mark (where I called the line between great and ATVG) and I'm interested to re-evaluate him in light of it. I'll post the raw data as well.

The batting version will have the same core, and the hope is one day I can splice the lists together to make a true mvp list.

I think given how much home and away conditions dictate the game maybe we should start looking at expected home averages and SRs and totals and hauls Vs expected away stuff?

shortpitched713 · Feb 23, 2023

Bumping for any news on update including spinners?

Flem274* · Feb 23, 2023

shortpitched713 said:
Bumping for any news on update including spinners?

It's done, but I want to make a few tweaks first so the model is less brute force. For example the longevity bonus will change from increments of 2.5 per 10 tests to 50 tests (post 1973), to increments of 1 per 5 tests up to 50. It's a bit ridiculous I had it jump 2.5 between tests 49 and 50.

Batting allrounders are very good at cheesing the model as well so I'm adding a 15 wicket qualification for a year to count towards impact points, which in retrospect is blindingly obvious but I won't pretend to be the greatest statistician alive.

The results look mostly accurate and have shone a new light on some players for me, which was good. Half the fun of doing this was willing on some midlister to see who they can beat.

shortpitched713 · Feb 27, 2023

@Flem274* are you making these tweaks and updates to each player manually? If so, and you need some help, just let me know. Me and spreadsheets, and data entry have a bit of a history together.

Starfighter · Feb 27, 2023

@Flem274* are you going to apply an automatic four run downwards average adjustment to leg spinners that many (delusional) fans of the style seem to apply?

shortpitched713 · Mar 4, 2023

Rumpity bump, do spinners come out trumps?

Flem274* · Mar 4, 2023

Starfighter said:
@Flem274* are you going to apply an automatic four run downwards average adjustment to leg spinners that many (delusional) fans of the style seem to apply?

Should I ask?

shortpitched713 said:
Rumpity bump, do spinners come out trumps?

Spinners do well. They're compared with each other, like quicks are compared with each other.

I've got to apply my 15 wicket per year minimum, add some sub 100 wicket bowlers of interest and update for the 2 just finished tests. Then it's good to go. The big picture is there already.

shortpitched713 · Apr 18, 2023

Day 50 something of me ignoring my restraining order, and seeing if we can get an apples to oranges comparisons of pacers to spinners for Flem's model.

shortpitched713 · Jul 18, 2023

Flem274* said:
Spinners do well. They're compared with each other, like quicks are compared with each other.

I've got to apply my 15 wicket per year minimum, add some sub 100 wicket bowlers of interest and update for the 2 just finished tests. Then it's good to go. The big picture is there already.

Sad that this ended up being your position.

Even if the model breaks down, I'd love to see what it spits out raw. Because ultimately that's of some value too, helping us understand what initial assumptions may be false.

I mean at the end of the day, spinners and quicks are both bowling their overs, allowing runs, and getting wickets. If we end up seeing that these overs and bowlers for spinners and quicks have to live in completely different universes to make any sense of them, then maybe it's our conventional wisdoms that need to be challenged rather than the numbers?

shortpitched713 · Jul 19, 2023

I mean I actually get why not to inlude spinners. It's the old strike vs stock elephant in the room. The best seamers will be used primarily as strike bowlers only, whereas the often only spinner in the side will inevitably have to be used with some stock character in their usage, regardless of how phenomenal they are.

Then again, I'm not trying to figure out how great of a strike bowler Yasir ****ing Shah or Tony Lock is. I want to know about the few genuine freak strike spin bowlers, esp. Murali, Warne, Ashwin in the subcontinent, etc.

Actually, if you have, or I can figure out the formula, I'll calculate it myself for those guys...

Player	Average	NH Average	EA	EA(NH)	EA Diff	EA(NH) Diff

Ben Hilfenhaus	28.5	30.73	34.08	35.5	5.58	4.77
James Anderson	26.13	30.21	31.7	34.58	5.57	4.37

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