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Official - Road to Ashes 2023

Nintendo

Cricketer Of The Year
In 2019, numbers 4,5,6,7 essentially averaged about 200 runs per innings. Now admittedly, that was largely due to Smith being ridiculous. But given they never faced a single ball from Anderson in that series, is it wrong to think they'll struggle to match that this time around?
Archer replaced Anderson basically straight away in that series and averaged 20 odd, realistically not facing Anderson would have only inflated the averages in the 1st test (where Wade made a ton and head got 2 scores tbf). What are the 4/5/6/7 averages for the second test going forward, think that'll give a more accurate reflection.
 

Data Scientist

Cricket Spectator
Genuinely interested – how does this occur?
Movement is caused by a difference in drag between the two sides of the ball. There's a few mechanisms by which this can happen.

In conventional swing the shiny side faces less drag so it moves faster and the ball moves towards the dull side. The opposite happens for reverse swing.

The relationships between the mechanisms are highly complex and non linear. The two parameters that are commonly used to model these things are the mach number and the reynolds number.

Mach number is the speed of the ball relative to the speed of sound in air, and the reynolds number is about how sticky the air is relative to how hard the object is to accelerate. Both of these are affected by the atmospheric conditions of the air.
 

GIMH

Norwood's on Fire
Archer replaced Anderson basically straight away in that series and averaged 20 odd, realistically not facing Anderson would have only inflated the averages in the 1st test (where Wade made a ton and head got 2 scores tbf). What are the 4/5/6/7 averages for the second test going forward, think that'll give a more accurate reflection.
Doesn’t this assume that Anderson and Archer wouldn’t have played together though? As I don’t think that’s correct.
 

Nintendo

Cricketer Of The Year
Doesn’t this assume that Anderson and Archer wouldn’t have played together though? As I don’t think that’s correct.
Yeah it does. Anderson being fit changes alot of things that make the series a headstratcher. What happens In the 1st test? Does archer play the second test if he's not replacing Anderson? If archer doesn't play what happens with smith in that second test? Does he turn that 80* into a big score or get out? Does marnus come in for the 3rd test?

One scenario that's always got me is what happens to marnus long term. If his return is delayed he misses 1-3 50's that sealed his place for the next home summer and realistically his shield form pre that summer wasn't good enough to demand a test spot.

Anderson and archer could play together, I just don't personally think it happens until the 3rd test in this scenario and by that point all 3 of those tests still go the same way (Smith realistically shouldn't contribute more than marnus did in his place in the 3rd test, 4th and 5th test results where both pretty dominant, don't think Anderson changes the 4th test enough to secure an England win).

If England rest broad for archer in the 3rd test you get an interesting situation where the tail is now woakes-Archer/Leach-Leach/Archer-Anderson. If leach cops the Yorker broad got out too does Anderson last to see stokes get the winning runs?
 

GIMH

Norwood's on Fire
All fair points except with a fit Anderson we’ve won the first Test by an innings on day two and from there it’s hard to see past 4-0 (rain still saves you at Lords).

It’s actually worth the 2-2 for Headingley I guess.
 

Nintendo

Cricketer Of The Year
All fair points except with a fit Anderson we’ve won the first Test by an innings on day two and from there it’s hard to see past 4-0 (rain still saves you at Lords).

It’s actually worth the 2-2 for Headingley I guess.
This post is farcical beyond belief, just like your face.
 

ataraxia

International Coach
Movement is caused by a difference in drag between the two sides of the ball. There's a few mechanisms by which this can happen.

In conventional swing the shiny side faces less drag so it moves faster and the ball moves towards the dull side. The opposite happens for reverse swing.

The relationships between the mechanisms are highly complex and non linear. The two parameters that are commonly used to model these things are the mach number and the reynolds number.

Mach number is the speed of the ball relative to the speed of sound in air, and the reynolds number is about how sticky the air is relative to how hard the object is to accelerate. Both of these are affected by the atmospheric conditions of the air.
Very interesting, but I was asking how seam is affected by atmospheric conditions. Know anything if that?
 

Line and Length

Cricketer Of The Year
I am guessing that it would be indirectly through the influence of temperature and humidity on the ground?
Humidity is definitely a big factor. As a club bowler I never moved the ball a great deal through the air but, on the few days when Perth was experiencing humid weather, I found conditions gave me the swing that I usually lacked.
 

Starfighter

Cricket Web: All-Time Legend
Humidity is definitely a big factor. As a club bowler I never moved the ball a great deal through the air but, on the few days when Perth was experiencing humid weather, I found conditions gave me the swing that I usually lacked.
That's nothing to do with movement off the pitch, which is the point of contention here - that atmospheric conditions affect the amount of seam movement, not swing.

BTW there has never been any evidence found in tests that humidity affects swing. There is some evidence that small-scale turbulence does, which may explain the cloudy/not cloudy distinction (broadly, less solar heating means less turbulence).
 

Xix2565

International Regular
That's nothing to do with movement off the pitch, which is the point of contention here - that atmospheric conditions affect the amount of seam movement, not swing.
Thank you, I still don't get why people are confused about the point being contested.
 

Molehill

International Captain
Anderson and archer could play together, I just don't personally think it happens until the 3rd test in this scenario and by that point all 3 of those tests still go the same way (Smith realistically shouldn't contribute more than marnus did in his place in the 3rd test, 4th and 5th test results where both pretty dominant, don't think Anderson changes the 4th test enough to secure an England win).
I think the most interesting Test is the First if Anderson didn't get injured. If Australia are bowled out for say 170, do they make 470 in their second dig against a full strength bowling line up and faced with a bigger deficit. I suspect not, and then it alters the whole dynamic of the series.

I've wondered your point about Marnus too, he took advantage of the situation offered to him, but that likely doesn't happen if Anderson stays fit. But fair play to him for grabbing that chance, many others in history have not been able to.
 

Nintendo

Cricketer Of The Year
I think the most interesting Test is the First if Anderson didn't get injured. If Australia are bowled out for say 170, do they make 470 in their second dig against a full strength bowling line up and faced with a bigger deficit. I suspect not, and then it alters the whole dynamic of the series.

I've wondered your point about Marnus too, he took advantage of the situation offered to him, but that likely doesn't happen if Anderson stays fit. But fair play to him for grabbing that chance, many others in history have not been able to.
Anderson's record in opposition's second dig around that time was surprisingly poor for no explainable reason right? I remember it being discussed when India where in England in 22. If Anderson is taking his wickets at 40/45 and the deck still flattens out I think Australia make enough to bowl England out in the 4th innings, but that's pure conjecture.
 

Molehill

International Captain
Anderson's record in opposition's second dig around that time was surprisingly poor for no explainable reason right? I remember it being discussed when India where in England in 22. If Anderson is taking his wickets at 40/45 and the deck still flattens out I think Australia make enough to bowl England out in the 4th innings, but that's pure conjecture.
The other aspect is that even if he's not taking wickets, he's at least taking workload off the others who may. But it's all pure conjecture. I still remain convinced that that was as poor an England team that has competed in a Home Ashes series this Century. That they forced a draw is still baffling.
 

Line and Length

Cricketer Of The Year
That's nothing to do with movement off the pitch, which is the point of contention here - that atmospheric conditions affect the amount of seam movement, not swing.

BTW there has never been any evidence found in tests that humidity affects swing. There is some evidence that small-scale turbulence does, which may explain the cloudy/not cloudy distinction (broadly, less solar heating means less turbulence).
I wasn't referring to movement off the pitch. I simply was expressing my observations of the atmospheric conditions on the degree of swing. This is a view I shared with Bob Massie, with whom I had the pleasure of opening the bowling. Bob had returned from England and apparently lost the degree of swing for which he was famous. He blamed that loss to the drier Perth air in summer.
 

Starfighter

Cricket Web: All-Time Legend
I wasn't referring to movement off the pitch.
The original point of contention was. If you and some other posters had paid more attention, you'd've realised.
I simply was expressing my observations of the atmospheric conditions on the degree of swing. This is a view I shared with Bob Massie, with whom I had the pleasure of opening the bowling. Bob had returned from England and apparently lost the degree of swing for which he was famous. He blamed that loss to the drier Perth air in summer.
That's still anecdote and Massie was not known to swing the ball much in most conditions after '72. The day-to-day and hour-to-hour variations in humidity would be far more important than any perceived average.
 

Line and Length

Cricketer Of The Year
The original point of contention was. If you and some other posters had paid more attention, you'd've realised.
I had been paying attention thank you. I Was simply commenting on other posts regarding movement through the air and atmospheric conditions.
 
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Starfighter

Cricket Web: All-Time Legend
I had been paying attention thank you. i Was simply commenting on other posts regarding movement through the air and atmospheric conditions.
Dude, the comment you were replying to was about the alleged affect of atmospheric conditions on seam claimed by Ashes81.
 

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