Flem274*
123/5
Hello. I'm boring so I made a ranking thing. If you just want some scores and ratings to yay or nay rather than a wall of explanatory text, here you go. Wall of text is below. Full spreadsheet in post #7.
This is the first draft of a model to compare performance by players to what would be expected of the average player in their situation and then fitting them into a simple MVP system. I will post the full spreadsheet (or attach it, whichever works best) in another post but for now the gist is in this OP. This is a far more developed version of what I quickly posted in the Smith vs Viv thread the other day. I am posting this here for feedback on the first draft before I add spinners to it. I would like to do one for batsmen too. Some players will be missing, but every pacer with 100 test wickets should be here along with multiple guys close to it or just significant to their country. I already know I forgot Constantine and Griffiths, they will be added. I am also aware there are limitations and improvements I would like to make. I will address them in another post as this is a very long post already.
Rating players based on the context of their era is something I agree with, but wanted to take one step further - the only thing that matters is your performance in your era.
This perspective renders discussions on whether the 2000s bowlers all sucked or there were so many good fast bowlers in the 1980s because the batsmen all sucked and the South African talent factory was banned irrelevant. You don't want the player who will succeed in 2054, you want the best player right now because they are the most valuable player to every contemporary cricket team. This view returns ATG debates to reality.
This is not an attempt to find the objective best player, but to judge how far above the expectations of their era each player performed. This allows the reader to discuss this list sensibly and continue believing fast bowling peaked in 1837 or that all pre-WWI players were backyard cricketers.
I made some assumptions which do create limitations, and I'm surprised the end result is as decent as it is.
1) The average player would achieve the aggregate of all players performing their skill (for this list, pace bowling) during their career e.g. if the aggregate of all pace bowlers between 01 Jan 2000 and 31 Dec 2010 take 5000 wickets at an average of 25 and strike rate of 50, the average pace bowler between those dates will average 25 with a SR of 50. If Ronald Fogglebottom averages 23 and strikes at 47, he's in credit. Note - Sobers and Johnston were compared to all bowlers of their type.
2) It is harder to play away from home. I have found ye olde days times where this does not appear to be true, but whatever good enough for a first draft.
3) All opposition are equal. I have no way (yet) of weighting performance so it is what it is for now.
4) It is harder to be good for a long time than it is a short time. Quality longevity should be rewarded.
The core of this draft model is Expected Average Score, Expected Strike Rate Score and Quality Longevity (Impact Points). WPM and are also included. I do not believe in penalising players so every player is given the opportunity to get some points. A player can score 0 on both expected measures and still provide years of valuable service to their team, because below average players can have good games.
Expected Average Score: I took the difference between average and expected average, and non-home average and expected non-home average, and made the equation
"Expected average difference + (non-home expected average difference x 0.5) x longevity bonus". I used a MAX in Excel to prevent anyone with a negative result dropping below 0.
The longevity bonus is there to differentiate the 5 minute wonders from the 10 year brigade with similar results. It's scaled to reflect era because a 10 year career for Aus in 1950-60 is different to today. I eyeballed cutoffs by looking at annual tests played in each year. Open to change. Your era is judged by when you retire. The bonus is as follows:
1973 - Present: 50 tests or more = 10 points, 40 = 7.5, 30 = 5, <30 = 1.
WWI end to 1972: Same points but minimum 40 tests for 10 points, 30 for 7.5, 20 for 5 and <20 is 1.
Pre-WWI: Congratulations, you played one of the few tests on, have 10 points.
Expected Strike Rate Score: The same equation except for the end where instead of being multiplied by the longevity bonus it is divided by 2. SR was added in last to this model and has been the fiddliest to get right.
Impact Points: This is to measure quality longevity. It is a very simple points system, and it's mainly here to sift the long term overachievers from the short term ones and give some points to the below average players. You can get some serious points here as you can carry your best years with you and multiply them. Years only count if they comprise 3 tests or more. You drop years of 1 or 2 tests and any year averaging over 35, but you keep all 5fers for the next category.
<35 average: 1 point per year
<30 average: 1 point per year, x 2
<25 average: 1 point per year, x 3
< 20 average: 1 point per year, x4
Vanburn Holder had 5 years averaging below 35, 2 years below 30 and 1 below 25 so earns 12 impact points. 5 + 4 + 3 = 12.
Any ye
WPM and 5fers: WPM is pretty important in the final equation as a sifter and 5fers is here because they deserve recognition. WPM is multiplied by longevity bonus in the final score and 5fers count for one point each (meaning a year where you averaged 37 but took a 5fer means you get some credit for that performance).
SCORE: Is calcucated as (Expected Average Score x 1.5) + SR Score + Impact Points + (WPM x Longevity bonus) + 5fers. This appears to be the most sensible results, though some players still brute force it.
| Player | EA SCORE | SR SCORE | YA u35 (3 tests) | YA u30 (3 tests) | YA u25 (3 tests) | YA u20 (3 tests) | Impact Pts | WPM | 5w | SCORE |
| Glenn McGrath | 74.12 | 14.80 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 79 | 4.54 | 29 | 279.38 |
| Richard Hadlee | 53.04 | 17.13 | 14 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 96 | 5.01 | 36 | 278.80 |
| Dale Steyn | 59.59 | 22.58 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 76 | 4.72 | 26 | 261.16 |
| Curtly Ambrose | 57.78 | 11.10 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 6 | 93 | 4.13 | 22 | 254.10 |
| Malcolm Marshall | 55.76 | 19.85 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 63 | 4.64 | 22 | 234.91 |
| George Lohmann | 65.64 | 25.03 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 40 | 6.22 | 9 | 234.71 |
| Allan Donald | 51.20 | 20.53 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 70 | 4.58 | 20 | 233.16 |
| Sydney Barnes | 54.03 | 17.63 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 32 | 7.00 | 24 | 224.67 |
| Wasim Akram | 42.86 | 11.08 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 81 | 3.98 | 25 | 221.17 |
| Courtney Walsh | 35.78 | 7.48 | 17 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 82 | 3.93 | 22 | 204.46 |
| Imran Khan | 32.96 | 11.68 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 79 | 4.11 | 23 | 204.25 |
| Waqar Younis | 38.59 | 24.55 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 51 | 4.29 | 22 | 198.31 |
| Joel Garner | 65.12 | 15.53 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 33 | 4.47 | 7 | 197.86 |
| Shaun Pollock | 53.96 | 5.30 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 54 | 3.90 | 16 | 195.22 |
| James Anderson | 27.42 | 3.48 | 17 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 79 | 3.81 | 32 | 193.74 |
| Alan Davidson | 51.38 | 9.38 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 51 | 4.23 | 14 | 193.72 |
| Dennis Lillee | 37.48 | 15.23 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 42 | 5.07 | 23 | 187.16 |
| Fred Trueman | 23.88 | 24.63 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 63 | 4.58 | 17 | 186.27 |
| Michael Holding | 43.17 | 15.25 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 44 | 4.15 | 13 | 178.51 |
| Ray Lindwall | 32.06 | 17.43 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 61 | 3.74 | 12 | 175.89 |
| Pat Cummins | 47.12 | 14.85 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 45 | 4.55 | 8 | 172.67 |
| Kagiso Rabada | 29.57 | 19.08 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 37 | 4.62 | 12 | 158.64 |
| Shoiab Akhtar | 43.79 | 22.38 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 29 | 3.87 | 12 | 158.08 |
| Vernon Philander | 31.97 | 7.88 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 51 | 3.50 | 13 | 154.83 |
| Frederick Spofforth | 24.76 | 17.85 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 37 | 5.22 | 7 | 151.21 |
| Jason Gillespie | 39.43 | 10.50 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 35 | 3.65 | 8 | 149.12 |
| Keith Miller | 31.13 | 15.95 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 48 | 3.09 | 7 | 148.55 |
| John Snow | 42.60 | 16.48 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 29 | 4.12 | 8 | 148.29 |
| Wes Hall | 24.55 | 21.68 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 38 | 4.00 | 9 | 145.50 |
| Morne Morkel | 36.28 | 10.15 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 35 | 3.59 | 8 | 143.50 |
| Bob Willis | 21.33 | 12.25 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 46 | 3.61 | 16 | 142.36 |
| Bill Johnston | 34.19 | 12.28 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 26 | 4.00 | 7 | 136.56 |
| Ian Bishop | 33.04 | 14.23 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 36 | 3.74 | 6 | 133.86 |
| Mitchell Johnson | 24.64 | 13.18 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 27 | 4.29 | 12 | 132.01 |
| Brian Statham | 12.78 | 8.88 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 58 | 3.60 | 9 | 131.05 |
| Mitchell Starc | 22.37 | 11.13 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 32 | 4.05 | 13 | 130.21 |
| Darren Gough | 29.33 | 14.10 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 3.95 | 9 | 128.58 |
| Neil Wagner | 25.75 | 5.38 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 32 | 4.12 | 9 | 126.17 |
| Stuart Broad | 15.32 | 1.63 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 44 | 3.56 | 19 | 123.20 |
| Andy Roberts | 27.91 | 10.78 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 27 | 4.30 | 11 | 122.88 |
| Tim Southee | 10.74 | 1.13 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 46 | 3.92 | 14 | 116.46 |
| Matthew Hoggard | 33.55 | 12.10 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 3.70 | 7 | 116.44 |
| Peter Pollock | 29.16 | 20.55 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 4.14 | 9 | 116.00 |
| Trent Boult | 15.07 | 4.25 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 36 | 4.06 | 10 | 113.50 |
| Ian Botham | 7.87 | 7.10 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 29 | 3.75 | 27 | 112.45 |
| Terry Alderman | 25.70 | 5.68 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 4.15 | 14 | 111.33 |
| Josh Hazlewood | 25.64 | 0.40 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 25 | 3.76 | 9 | 110.49 |
| Trevor Bailey | 25.65 | 2.30 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 42 | 2.16 | 5 | 109.41 |
| Trevor Goddard | 29.58 | 0.00 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 28 | 3.00 | 5 | 107.37 |
| Charlie Turner | 8.74 | 4.35 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 5.94 | 11 | 106.87 |
| Mohammad Shami | 14.97 | 9.73 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 32 | 3.60 | 6 | 106.18 |
| Alec Bedser | 0.00 | 2.87 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 42 | 4.63 | 15 | 106.15 |
| Zaheer Khan | 24.36 | 4.58 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 3.38 | 11 | 105.92 |
| Chris Cairns | 14.09 | 13.03 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 23 | 3.52 | 13 | 105.32 |
| Brett Lee | 10.63 | 11.40 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 4.08 | 10 | 101.13 |
| Jasprit Bumrah | 23.54 | 7.50 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 28 | 4.27 | 8 | 100.14 |
| Makhaya Ntini | 0.00 | 9.03 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 33 | 3.86 | 18 | 98.64 |
| Bruce Taylor | 23.38 | 21.20 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 3.70 | 4 | 97.76 |
| Chaminda Vaas | 8.70 | 0.00 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 40 | 3.20 | 12 | 97.03 |
| Angus Fraser | 24.86 | 3.68 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 3.85 | 13 | 96.82 |
| Graham McKenzie | 11.54 | 0.00 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 4.10 | 16 | 96.31 |
| Kapil Dev | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 40 | 3.31 | 23 | 96.13 |
| Andrew Caddick | 13.43 | 6.63 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 3.77 | 13 | 95.51 |
| Kemar Roach | 0.00 | 3.63 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 46 | 3.42 | 10 | 93.81 |
| Heath Streak | 15.09 | 0.00 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 29 | 3.32 | 7 | 91.87 |
| Neil Adcock | 18.69 | 10.38 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 28 | 4.00 | 5 | 91.41 |
| Andrew Flintoff | 28.05 | 0.00 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 2.86 | 3 | 86.68 |
| Jack Cowie | 17.02 | 42.85 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 5.00 | 4 | 84.37 |
| Craig McDermott | 0.00 | 7.05 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 4.10 | 14 | 83.04 |
| Jeff Thomson | 0.00 | 11.73 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 3.92 | 8 | 82.94 |
| Merv Hughes | 5.43 | 8.15 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 4.00 | 7 | 82.30 |
| Javagal Srinath | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 36 | 3.52 | 10 | 81.22 |
| Shane Bond | 17.76 | 29.50 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 4.83 | 5 | 79.97 |
| Harold Larwood | 17.81 | 17.65 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 3.71 | 4 | 78.94 |
| Fazal Mahmood | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 4.09 | 13 | 78.66 |
| Frank Tyson | 11.69 | 31.33 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 4.47 | 4 | 78.33 |
| Ryan Harris | 15.32 | 15.60 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 29 | 4.19 | 5 | 76.76 |
| Mohammad Asif | 16.31 | 16.68 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 4.61 | 7 | 74.75 |
| Umesh Yadav | 0.00 | 7.63 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 32 | 3.06 | 3 | 73.18 |
| Ishant Sharma | 5.18 | 0.00 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 2.96 | 11 | 71.39 |
| Asif Iqbal | 27.21 | 0.00 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0.91 | 2 | 70.95 |
| Tony Greig | 20.22 | 0.00 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2.43 | 6 | 70.64 |
| George Giffen | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 3.32 | 7 | 67.23 |
| Paul Reiffel | 18.48 | 3.60 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 2.97 | 5 | 67.18 |
| Peter Siddle | 3.63 | 0.00 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 3.30 | 8 | 66.43 |
| Garfield Sobers | 0.00 | 0.00 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 34 | 2.53 | 6 | 65.27 |
| Max Walker | 15.38 | 0.00 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 4.06 | 6 | 64.36 |
| Sarfraz Nawaz | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 28 | 3.22 | 4 | 64.18 |
| Steve Harmison | 0.40 | 3.80 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 3.59 | 8 | 62.27 |
| Alan Connolly | 18.08 | 0.00 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 3.52 | 4 | 60.71 |
| Chris Martin | 0.00 | 0.98 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 3.28 | 10 | 59.79 |
| Jason Holder | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 2.47 | 8 | 58.66 |
| Stuart Clark | 16.03 | 9.03 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 3.92 | 2 | 57.99 |
| Mohammad Amir | 10.92 | 0.00 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 3.31 | 4 | 53.91 |
| Dion Nash | 11.54 | 0.00 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 2.91 | 3 | 53.83 |
| Fidel Edwards | 0.00 | 4.60 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3.00 | 12 | 53.60 |
| Geoff Lawson | 0.00 | 0.40 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 3.91 | 11 | 52.75 |
| Shannon Gabriel | 0.00 | 2.90 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 2.88 | 6 | 52.65 |
| Lance Cairns | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 23 | 3.02 | 6 | 51.67 |
| Bhuvneshwar Kumar | 9.89 | 10.73 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 3.00 | 4 | 51.55 |
| Jacques Kallis | 0.00 | 0.00 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 1.76 | 5 | 50.59 |
| Graham Dilley | 0.00 | 2.03 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 3.37 | 6 | 50.27 |
| Andre Nel | 10.64 | 0.00 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 3.42 | 3 | 50.04 |
| Steven Finn | 3.10 | 11.88 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 3.47 | 5 | 49.89 |
| Lasith Malinga | 7.81 | 12.40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3.37 | 3 | 48.95 |
| Ollie Robinson | 10.25 | 9.28 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 4.29 | 3 | 47.93 |
| Geoff Arnold | 0.00 | 2.28 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 3.38 | 6 | 47.64 |
| Simon Doull | 3.45 | 1.48 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 3.06 | 6 | 46.96 |
| Chris Old | 1.44 | 2.40 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 3.11 | 4 | 46.87 |
| Ben Stokes | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 2.17 | 4 | 46.69 |
| Dominic Cork | 4.18 | 4.60 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 3.54 | 5 | 46.57 |
| Ewen Chatfield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 2.86 | 3 | 45.45 |
| Chris Woakes | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 2.89 | 4 | 43.67 |
| Danny Morrison | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3.33 | 10 | 43.00 |
| Mohammad Nissar | 5.20 | 24.75 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4.17 | 3 | 42.71 |
| James Pattinson | 4.19 | 10.15 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 3.86 | 4 | 42.28 |
| Shaheen Afridi | 6.26 | 9.60 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 3.96 | 4 | 40.95 |
| Phil DeFreitas | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 3.18 | 4 | 40.86 |
| Umar Gul | 0.00 | 3.60 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3.47 | 4 | 40.61 |
| Irfan Pathan | 6.93 | 7.28 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 3.45 | 7 | 40.11 |
| Hasan Ali | 5.94 | 8.48 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 3.55 | 6 | 39.93 |
| Suranga Lakmal | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 2.44 | 4 | 39.43 |
| Dick Motz | 0.00 | 1.15 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3.13 | 5 | 37.59 |
| Mohammad Abbas | 7.90 | 0.00 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 3.60 | 4 | 37.45 |
| Vanburn Holder | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 2.73 | 3 | 35.44 |
| Devon Malcolm | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3.20 | 5 | 35.00 |
| Bruce Reid | 2.35 | 6.90 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 4.19 | 5 | 34.61 |
| Richard Collinge | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 3.31 | 3 | 34.57 |
| Rodney Hogg | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 3.24 | 6 | 33.18 |
| Karsan Ghavri | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 2.79 | 4 | 32.97 |
| Khan Mohammad | 0.00 | 13.95 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 4.15 | 4 | 32.10 |
| Kyle Jarvis | 6.53 | 9.43 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3.54 | 3 | 31.75 |
| Ryan Sidebottom | 8.25 | 2.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3.59 | 5 | 30.16 |
| Mark Wood | 1.35 | 3.15 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 3.21 | 3 | 29.38 |
| Manoj Prabhakar | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 2.46 | 3 | 29.31 |
| Dilhara Fernando | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2.50 | 3 | 28.75 |
| Michael Kasprowicz | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2.97 | 4 | 27.87 |
| Venkatesh Prasad | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2.91 | 7 | 27.55 |
| Pedro Collins | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3.31 | 3 | 26.56 |
| Ben Hilfenhaus | 7.97 | 1.70 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3.67 | 2 | 26.31 |
| Abdul Razzaq | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2.17 | 1 | 24.30 |
| Chetan Sharma | 0.00 | 7.98 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2.65 | 4 | 18.63 |
| Jofra Archer | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3.23 | 3 | 13.23 |
| Aaqib Javed | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2.45 | 1 | 10.45 |
| Naseem Shah | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2.80 | 1 | 8.80 |
This is the first draft of a model to compare performance by players to what would be expected of the average player in their situation and then fitting them into a simple MVP system. I will post the full spreadsheet (or attach it, whichever works best) in another post but for now the gist is in this OP. This is a far more developed version of what I quickly posted in the Smith vs Viv thread the other day. I am posting this here for feedback on the first draft before I add spinners to it. I would like to do one for batsmen too. Some players will be missing, but every pacer with 100 test wickets should be here along with multiple guys close to it or just significant to their country. I already know I forgot Constantine and Griffiths, they will be added. I am also aware there are limitations and improvements I would like to make. I will address them in another post as this is a very long post already.
Rating players based on the context of their era is something I agree with, but wanted to take one step further - the only thing that matters is your performance in your era.
This perspective renders discussions on whether the 2000s bowlers all sucked or there were so many good fast bowlers in the 1980s because the batsmen all sucked and the South African talent factory was banned irrelevant. You don't want the player who will succeed in 2054, you want the best player right now because they are the most valuable player to every contemporary cricket team. This view returns ATG debates to reality.
This is not an attempt to find the objective best player, but to judge how far above the expectations of their era each player performed. This allows the reader to discuss this list sensibly and continue believing fast bowling peaked in 1837 or that all pre-WWI players were backyard cricketers.
I made some assumptions which do create limitations, and I'm surprised the end result is as decent as it is.
1) The average player would achieve the aggregate of all players performing their skill (for this list, pace bowling) during their career e.g. if the aggregate of all pace bowlers between 01 Jan 2000 and 31 Dec 2010 take 5000 wickets at an average of 25 and strike rate of 50, the average pace bowler between those dates will average 25 with a SR of 50. If Ronald Fogglebottom averages 23 and strikes at 47, he's in credit. Note - Sobers and Johnston were compared to all bowlers of their type.
2) It is harder to play away from home. I have found ye olde days times where this does not appear to be true, but whatever good enough for a first draft.
3) All opposition are equal. I have no way (yet) of weighting performance so it is what it is for now.
4) It is harder to be good for a long time than it is a short time. Quality longevity should be rewarded.
The core of this draft model is Expected Average Score, Expected Strike Rate Score and Quality Longevity (Impact Points). WPM and are also included. I do not believe in penalising players so every player is given the opportunity to get some points. A player can score 0 on both expected measures and still provide years of valuable service to their team, because below average players can have good games.
Expected Average Score: I took the difference between average and expected average, and non-home average and expected non-home average, and made the equation
"Expected average difference + (non-home expected average difference x 0.5) x longevity bonus". I used a MAX in Excel to prevent anyone with a negative result dropping below 0.
The longevity bonus is there to differentiate the 5 minute wonders from the 10 year brigade with similar results. It's scaled to reflect era because a 10 year career for Aus in 1950-60 is different to today. I eyeballed cutoffs by looking at annual tests played in each year. Open to change. Your era is judged by when you retire. The bonus is as follows:
1973 - Present: 50 tests or more = 10 points, 40 = 7.5, 30 = 5, <30 = 1.
WWI end to 1972: Same points but minimum 40 tests for 10 points, 30 for 7.5, 20 for 5 and <20 is 1.
Pre-WWI: Congratulations, you played one of the few tests on, have 10 points.
Expected Strike Rate Score: The same equation except for the end where instead of being multiplied by the longevity bonus it is divided by 2. SR was added in last to this model and has been the fiddliest to get right.
Impact Points: This is to measure quality longevity. It is a very simple points system, and it's mainly here to sift the long term overachievers from the short term ones and give some points to the below average players. You can get some serious points here as you can carry your best years with you and multiply them. Years only count if they comprise 3 tests or more. You drop years of 1 or 2 tests and any year averaging over 35, but you keep all 5fers for the next category.
<35 average: 1 point per year
<30 average: 1 point per year, x 2
<25 average: 1 point per year, x 3
< 20 average: 1 point per year, x4
Vanburn Holder had 5 years averaging below 35, 2 years below 30 and 1 below 25 so earns 12 impact points. 5 + 4 + 3 = 12.
Any ye
WPM and 5fers: WPM is pretty important in the final equation as a sifter and 5fers is here because they deserve recognition. WPM is multiplied by longevity bonus in the final score and 5fers count for one point each (meaning a year where you averaged 37 but took a 5fer means you get some credit for that performance).
SCORE: Is calcucated as (Expected Average Score x 1.5) + SR Score + Impact Points + (WPM x Longevity bonus) + 5fers. This appears to be the most sensible results, though some players still brute force it.
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