Group B - Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Russia

[Lillian Thomson]

I'm not sure (and as usual can't be bothered to look it up) whether a tie on points is decided on goal difference or group head to head. If it's goal difference Denmark could still finish second by beating Russia and Belgium beating Finland. That wouldn't be two particularly outlandish results.

 

[Red_Ink_Squid]

I'm not sure (and as usual can't be bothered to look it up) whether a tie on points is decided on goal difference or group head to head. If it's goal difference Denmark could still finish second by beating Russia and Belgium beating Finland. That wouldn't be two particularly outlandish results.

Ties are being split via head-to-head record between the tied teams. If I've understood correctly, if Belgium beat Finland as expected then Denmark can finish ahead of both Russia and Finland via the tiebreaker rules if they beat Russia by any scoreline other than 1-0. If they do win 1-0 (and Finland lose) then goal difference in the group as a whole (i.e. results against Belgium) would then be considered, which would favour Denmark over Russia at a minimum.

 

[Lillian Thomson]

Ties are being split via head-to-head record between the tied teams. If I've understood correctly, if Belgium beat Finland as expected then Denmark can finish ahead of both Russia and Finland via the tiebreaker rules if they beat Russia by any scoreline other than 1-0. If they do win 1-0 (and Finland lose) then goal difference in the group as a whole (i.e. results against Belgium) would then be considered, which would favour Denmark over Russia at a minimum.

It can't be both. If the first tie breaker is head to head then Finland have beaten Denmark.

 

[Red_Ink_Squid]

It can't be both. If the first tie breaker is head to head then Finland have beaten Denmark.

Yes, but in that scenario Denmark would have beaten Russia and Russia beat Finland, so all would be tied on 3 points and the head to head measures would have to span the threesome. As the other results in that head-to-head triangle were 1-0 wins, I think if Denmark better that then they would go through as group runners up.

 

[Lillian Thomson]

Ah got ya. I'm glad I didn't bother looking it up.

 

[Uppercut]

Good call, for some reason it never occurred to me that they could finish 2nd with 3 points.

 

[Magrat Garlick]

Some rumours abounding that Belgium will send out the second string v Finland

 

[Furball]

You mean they've got worse, slower defenders than the ones they've been starting?

edit: also surely de Bruyne and Hazard would benefit from game time?

 

[WICFan]

You mean they've got worse, slower defenders than the ones they've been starting?

Yes, Thomas Vermaelen.

But yeah, you would think KDB, Eden Hazard and Witsel could do with some game time, and the likes of Castagne aren't bad replacements to bring in either.

 

[Uppercut]

You mean they've got worse, slower defenders than the ones they've been starting?

edit: also surely de Bruyne and Hazard would benefit from game time?

Depends on how they’ve recovered from yesterday but with 3 and 4 day turnarounds the fatigue factor will almost always be much more important than match fitness. They’ll probably come off the bench though.

 

[Magrat Garlick]

Denmark need a two goal win and Switzerland not to win it seems

 

[wpdavid]

Denmark need a two goal win and Switzerland not to win it seems

The first bit more likely than the second, I would suggest. I know this was discussed the other day, but are Finland automatically ahead of Denmark if they're on the same number of points due top their head-to-head result?

 

[Magrat Garlick]

The first bit more likely than the second, I would suggest. I know this was discussed the other day, but are Finland automatically ahead of Denmark if they're on the same number of points due top their head-to-head result?

No, then it becomes a three-way tie (because DK, FI and RU all will have 1 win each), which gets split by the head-to-head in all three matches.

So Denmark would finish second in the group with a two goal win and a Belgium win.

 

[wpdavid]

No, then it becomes a three-way tie (because DK, FI and RU all will have 1 win each), which gets split by the head-to-head in all three matches.

So Denmark would finish second in the group with a two goal win and a Belgium win.

So it's effectively rock, paper & scissors between those three teams, therefore goal difference comes to the fore?

 

[Magrat Garlick]

So it's effectively rock, paper & scissors between those three teams, therefore goal difference comes to the fore?

Almost. I believe to avoid the rock, paper, scissors thing they consider the goal difference in the matches not involving Belgium first (so as long as Finland lose, then it doesn't matter if they lose by one or six goals.)

 

[wpdavid]

Almost. I believe to avoid the rock, paper, scissors thing they consider the goal difference in the matches not involving Belgium first (so as long as Finland lose, then it doesn't matter if they lose by one or six goals.)

Thanks. Now I get it.

 

[Lillian Thomson]

It’s not really true to say Denmark need Switzerland not to win. If they beat Russia by two and Belgium beat Finland the results in other groups don’t matter.

 

[BoyBrumby]

I love working out (or, more frequently, reading about or being told) these permutations.

The Danes could even finish second if they only win by 1-0, couldn't they?

My take (assuming the Finns lose) is this leaves Finland, Russia and Denmark on 3 points and then only the results between the three tied teams count for tie-break purposes.

This leaves them all with 3 points, one goal scored and one conceded from the games between the tied teams.

At this point superior goal difference in all group games becomes the arbiter, followed by goals scored.

So if Belgium beat Finland by either 1-0 or by two clear goals, this would leave yer Danes in second place by virtue of only losing to the Phelgms by 2-1.

 

[Lillian Thomson]

Just looking for potential carve ups. By the time Group F finishes they'll know more than the rest what they need, or want, to do. If Germany beat Hungary, France might decide they're better off finishing second depending on how other groups have finished. So if Portugal can also get through by getting a point that match could become a bit friendlier as it goes along.

 

[GIMH]

Just been catching up on this thread. Obviously the 3rd places adds an additional level of permutations which makes it all the more interesting. But does anyone remember Euro 04 where for some reason a 2-2(or any higher score draw) between Sweden and I think Denmark would send Italy out no matter what. I can't remember the exact setup but I do remember laughing heartily in the boozer when the goal that made it 2-2 went in.

Not out any glee for Italy going out but just because of course it was going to finish 2-2