1st Semi Final - India v New Zealand

[wrongun]

The rain has stopped as per the Hotstar broadcast.

 

[shifty_eyes]

The rain has stopped as per the Hotstar broadcast.

The cloud is still hovering around. So might rain again.

 

[weldone]

The cloud is still hovering around. So might rain again.

yes google still shows 83% chance through next 1 hour and then drop to around 50% chance of rain till about 7 pm before it stops

 

[OverratedSanity]

**** off England.

 

[OverratedSanity]

The revised 25 over target looks pretty difficult. Hope we don't lose many overs here.

 

[shifty_eyes]

We have an extra batsman to take risk early on. 148 off 20 isn't horrible. Might have been worse if NZ played better. Also we missed couple of chances which could have helped reduce the target.

 

[Prince EWS]

Haha yes, but funny you remembered Cevno suddenly

Was mainly just because DLS is only one letter different to DRS and it let me dig up the old meme tbh.

Speaking of your DLS-love though, did you see my post about replacing NRR with it?

 

[Moss]

The revised 25 over target looks pretty difficult. Hope we don't lose many overs here.

With India batting deep and a combination of Henry/Neesham/CdG to bowl 2/5ths of the innings, I'd say India would be favourites chasing down the revised target even if reduced to 20-25 .

 

[weldone]

I personally think 237 off 46 is the best case scenario for NZ among the available DLS options. 148 off 20 will be easier for India because they'll take risks early, but 237 off 46 is the kind of target where they won't take too many risks too early. If they lose a couple of early wickets without scoring too many then it is game on.

 

[unorthodoxcrick]

Not looking good for us Kiwis at all.

During the rain break, check out my team of the tournament and see if you agree or not
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9al4MWeG18&t=17s

 

[srbhkshk]

We have an extra batsman to take risk early on. 148 off 20 isn't horrible. Might have been worse if NZ played better. Also we missed couple of chances which could have helped reduce the target.

Not horrible, but it's not ideal - this is a bit of hard to start quickly kind of pitch. I'd rather take 5 rpo for 50 overs than 7.5 for 20.

 

[weldone]

Speaking of your DLS-love though, did you see my post about replacing NRR with it?

no, where? link please

 

[Prince EWS]

no, where? link please

This in the pegging thread:

I reckon you could create a pretty good differentiator out of Duckworth Lewis - certainly a better one than NRR - but most people hate it enough already so there wouldn't be support for it.

Other sports solve this problem in a much more elegant fashion by simply having points or goal difference (points for minus points against), but the reason we can't do that in cricket is that the turn-based nature of the game means teams batting second win by time rather than runs, and don't actually finish their innings.

Fortunately we have a perfectly good approximating method to project incomplete innings into complete ones, so we can convert wins chasing into wins in terms of runs by projecting these innings using Duckworth Lewis. It's not perfect but it certainly avoids many of the worst problems with NRR - games in which the team batting first wins counting more towards it for both teams, teams who win by (to use an exaggerated example) one wicket with 30 overs to spare getting credited for much bigger wins than they really had, teams batting in shortened innings getting advantages - while offering few new problems itself.

For example, the first game won by a chasing team in the World Cup was the crucial Pakistan/West Indies game. West Indies won by "seven wickets" with a large NRR boost, but their chasing innings of 108/3 (13.4) can be converted using DLS to project them to a score of 321. This means they can be said to have won by the equivalent of 216 runs.

As Howe said in I think a different thread, none of the better alternatives to NRR were likely to put Pakistan ahead of New Zealand anyway due to this one absolute thrashing, but it doesn't mean we shouldn't be looking at changing it to one of those better ones.

 

[shifty_eyes]

Not horrible, but it's not ideal - this is a bit of hard to start quickly kind of pitch. I'd rather take 5 rpo for 50 overs than 7.5 for 20.

True that. But we won't be the first victims of DLS so can't really complaint. I am sure our players will not think much about it and will focus on the task.

 

[smash84]

doesn't look too good for New Zealand at the moment, haven't watched the game so not sure what the pitch is like.

The rain just kills all the excitement in a match.

 

[Spintolose]

I don't suppose the OT bars are doing a roaring trade.

 

[Moss]

Looks like it'll be a second straight rain affected semi final for NZ in world cups then. Though it would be a surprise if India didn't chase down whatever is lined up (and I sure hope it isn't a 20 over chase), would be cool if the finish is anywhere near as memorable as Eden Park 2015; hope NZ put in a lionhearted effort with the ball at least.

 

[Amirfan]

Bhuvi and Bumrah bowled really well, credit to them. Chahal has been exposed in this tournament and I think "Kulcha" honeymoon period is over and they will revert to the mean now. Looks like rain is going to favour New Zealand again here. They just need to get Rohit and Kohli and the game is theirs. India are not chasing 192 in 30 overs.

 

[OverratedSanity]

You all had better hope India don't lose a dls affected game. The salt from Indian fans moaning about the unfair dls revision will break the world.

 

[Moss]

Bhuvi and Bumrah bowled really well, credit to them. Chahal has been exposed in this tournament and I think "Kulcha" honeymoon period is over and they will revert to the mean now. Looks like rain is going to favour New Zealand again here. They just need to get Rohit and Kohli and the game is theirs. India are not chasing 192 in 30 overs.

I think India will be pretty happy to see as little of Ferguson and Boult as possible, and a reduction in overs would mean they can simply target the others. Not that they shouldn't chase down 237 off 46 with relative ease, but NZ's best chance is really to have those two get a crack at the middle order (plus perhaps a Henry new ball burst if conditions suit).