Kagiso Rabada

[Hurricane]

Ishant

Shami

McLeakin Runs

Bracewell

Bresnan

Bird

I actually think Fast Bowlers are the hardest group to predict who will be an ATG. The whole fast bowling thing seems so form dependent. Tim Southee has been wandering in and out of form for example according to some in the last 18 months. One minute people are talking about him being in the top 5 bowlers in the world then next minute like he is not bowling well at all.

That is my humble opinion anyway and I don't want to end up in a debate Kthnksbye

 

[watson]

Nice action but nothing to get overly excited about. At this stage I can't see him generating the consistent pace of Donald or the swing of Steyn.

 

[OverratedSanity]

400+ test wickets

 

[Hurricane]

I have changed my mind based on OS's post. 600+ test wickets at a minimum.

 

[OverratedSanity]

Glad I could help your old brain out.

 

[AndyZaltzHair]

Nice action but nothing to get overly excited about. At this stage I can't see him generating the consistent pace of Donald or the swing of Steyn.

20 years old and he is bowling like 145 (?) consistently. In an interview, he said he would like to go closer to 160 and that's what I did not like to hear (probably just an answer to question more than anything though). It's great if he can speed up but hope he does not only aim that.

Rabada regularly hits 150kph and his economy rates on flat tracks in India prove he has plenty of control to harness the raw pace. He might get even quicker as he bulks up a little. "Hopefully I can even inch towards the 160kph mark," he says. "My body should be okay with my action if I stay in the gym."

Interview not by Moonda

 

[test cricketer]

Rabada has scolioses(wavy spine) and makhaya ntini reckons his delivery stride could lead to injuries in the future. So he might have issues with injuries but if he doesnt struggle with injuries, i see little reason why he cant take 300 wickets.

 

[Howe_zat]

Agree with everything in the thread besides the consensus that he'll hit 300+ test wickets. Not sure how anyone can say that with any degree of confidence. So few reach that milestone regardless of how good they are. Morkel hasn't got there. Broad only recently did. Zaheer played 14 years before he scraped through. Gillespie didn't get close.

A lot of things have got to right for him to make it. Injuries, bad form, having to overtake 3 of the best fast bowlers in the world in the pecking order, SA not playing as many test matches..it's not impossible and he's got the right things on his side but I think people underestimate the difficulty of reaching such milestones.

I recall Howe saying something similar about Jermaine Blackwood when asked by NUFAN whether he'd hit 8000 test runs. iirc he gave a pretty damning statistic about how few people actually get there.

Yeah the odds are just stacked against you on this sort of thing. In the last 50 years only 22 of the 577 seam bowlers in tests have made it to 300+ wickets. So you have to be pretty confident of him being in the top 4% of bowlers ever to be confident of 300 plus. It's only a handful that are defeated solely by injury as well.

 

[NUFAN]

Surely I didn't say 8000, I think I would have said 6000 and I had just asked the question to spark some discussion on CW commentary. In saying that, Howe did answer it really well and I immediately thought of the Blackwood question when I saw this thread too.

 

[StephenZA]

Yeah the odds are just stacked against you on this sort of thing. In the last 50 years only 22 of the 577 seam bowlers in tests have made it to 300+ wickets. So you have to be pretty confident of him being in the top 4% of bowlers ever to be confident of 300 plus. It's only a handful that are defeated solely by injury as well.

Mmmm! Never really looked at the stats closely... I just realized SA have had 4 bowlers (all picked relatively young) get to 300+ wickets in my cricket watching lifetime (since readmission) and so maybe I think its more common than it is...

Everything I see about him impresses me though, most remarkably his attitude and way in which he thinks about his bowling. I think that he will be in the SA team sooner rather than later, not just because of his ability but also for other reasons that have been well discussed in and about SA cricket. And once in the SA team he would have to go through a really bad run of form and/or injury not to be picked. So for me he will have all the chances available to him to get to the 300+ wickets.

 

[Daemon]

Surely I didn't say 8000, I think I would have said 6000 and I had just asked the question to spark some discussion on CW commentary. In saying that, Howe did answer it really well and I immediately thought of the Blackwood question when I saw this thread too.

Yeah, it was probably 6000

 

[Flem274*]

Remember the young bowler poll made when Southee, Ishant, Amir, Hazlewood, Roach etc had just arrived on the scene? Would be good if someone dredged it up and compared it to Howe and Sparks points.

By someone I mean you morgie.

 

[CricAddict]

For 300 wickets, the main hurdles he has to get past is

1. To get a place in the team ahead of one of Steyn, Morkel and Philander
2. Get wickets earlier than those 3 to avoid cannibalization
3. Injuries
4. More tests for SA in an year
5. Form

in that order I believe.

 

[Prince EWS]

For 300 wickets, the main hurdles he has to get past is

1. To get a place in the team ahead of one of Steyn, Morkel and Philander
2. Get wickets earlier than those 3 to avoid cannibalization
3. Injuries
4. More tests for SA in an year
5. Form

in that order I believe.

I tend to think his best path to #1 on that list will be getting picked alongside them at first and then out-performing one of them. Four quicks + Duminy is a very realistic balance option at home, and I don't think he's going to displace anyone in India.

 

[StephenZA]

For 300 wickets, the main hurdles he has to get past is

1. To get a place in the team ahead of one of Steyn, Morkel and Philander
2. Get wickets earlier than those 3 to avoid cannibalization
3. Injuries
4. More tests for SA in an year
5. Form

in that order I believe.

1) As Prince says; Rabada will probably play as part of a fast bowling quartet on any semi-green surfaces, Philander has been a little injury prone of late as well. Additionally, there will be pressure to put him in the team for reasons other than cricketing (wrongly or rightly).
2) He is 20, when he is at his peak Steyn Morkel will probably no longer be there.. and if he is fighting it out with two other pace bowlers at that stage of similar quality to Steyn/Morkel/Himself I will be a happy SA supporter
3) I think he will be as well managed as any player in SA can be to stop any injuries...
4) Yes Please! (get rid of all T20`s and IPL`s... )
5) The class is there and he has the right attitude!

 

[Pratters]

I have liked what I have seen so far but he is far too young to predict. Right now, he can pitch it consistently and good spots and shows skill. Has pace. More than what you would expect from a 19 year old. However, to be a successful fast bowler one needs to add more variation over time, have the body for it and be good enough to be in the side.

For every fast bowler who makes it, there are so many who don't. For every Donald, Pollock and Steyn, there is a Schultz, Ngam and Parnell who didn't take a lot of test wickets for various reasons. Nowadays, bowlers are cared for far better than before with fitness regimes by countries who do care about their fast men. I do hope he keeps developing.

 

[aussie]

^^

Bit Harsh to put Schultz in that group, since potentially only injuries prevented him from being a top-class. Always considered him the most talented left-arm quick outside of Wasim in the last 25 years - until Johnson finally became very good.

Hayward would be a better inclusion in that group.

 

[Pratters]

^^

Bit Harsh to put Schultz in that group, since potentially only injuries prevented him from being a top-class.

Schultz, Ngam and Parnell who didn't take a lot of test wickets for various reasons.

.

 

[aussie]

Oh my bad, I'm texting from my phone that part I didn't see the first time until i refreshed.

 

[StephenZA]

I have liked what I have seen so far but he is far too young to predict. Right now, he can pitch it consistently and good spots and shows skill. Has pace. More than what you would expect from a 19 year old. However, to be a successful fast bowler one needs to add more variation over time, have the body for it and be good enough to be in the side.

For every fast bowler who makes it, there are so many who don't. For every Donald, Pollock and Steyn, there is a Schultz, Ngam and Parnell who didn't take a lot of test wickets for various reasons. Nowadays, bowlers are cared for far better than before with fitness regimes by countries who do care about their fast men. I do hope he keeps developing.

Schultz was a prima donna c**t, who thought he was gods gift to bowling, his control was not actually that good. Even without the knee troubles I think he would have been found wanting and dropped from SA team pretty quickly. Wayward Hayward was fast but was quickly found wanting against top batsmen. Parnell has been the biggest disappointment but part of that is he was billed as a genuine all-rounder and was just never good enough. Ngam was the unluckiest; he was a true natural athletic fast bowler who already showed great control at 20 years of age. His continuous stress fractures from brittle bones had nothing to do with ability or determination and everything to do with malnutrition when he was growing up.

As far as Rabada goes, he already has decent variation, will be in the side before long (he is good enough) and hopefully they sort out the few bowling action kinks and keep him healthy.