Andrew Alderson
Brendon McCullum and Martin Guptill.
McCullum returns to take the pressure off Guptill so he can fulfil more of an anchor role.
The captain still averages more as an opener in 80 innings (33.06) than he does from Nos 3-5 in 36 innings (30.96). If calamity strikes early, Kane Williamson can repair the innings at No3.
The decision would help counter the alarming statistic that among test-playing nations, New Zealand's average ODI opening partnership over the past two years is the worst at 18.36 with a run rate of 4.17 and highest stand of 66. Next worst is the West Indies' average partnership of 29.57.
The selectors don't want Brendon McCullum exposed to spinners early in his innings.
McCullum and Guptill's average stand is 44.16 in 20 outings at a run rate of 5.43, including eight in excess of 50. That makes a compelling case. Even taking out potential outliers at the 2011 World Cup like unbeaten stands of 166 and 72 against Zimbabwe and Kenya respectively and 53 against Canada, the average is still 29.65. They last opened together in the semifinal against Sri Lanka.
However, establishing an injury back-up option is a priority. Anton Devcich and Dean Brownlie have shown promise but that needs fulfilment in the coming weeks. Their fielding skills would also be a World Cup asset, even as 12th men. Another option might be to use Tom Latham as a substitute opener, creating a more permanent space in the middle order for Jimmy Neesham.
Dylan Cleaver
Brendon McCullum and Martin Guptill.
It seems that they have gone away from the idea that Brendon McCullum is a middle-order "finisher" and now think he's more effectively used to set up the innings. I tend to agree, but only in certain conditions.
It is clear that they do not want McCullum exposed to spinners early in his innings, particularly those with an effective arm ball. Even with the ICC's recent, stringent enforcement of the 15-degree rule culling the practitioners of doosras and mystery balls, McCullum still struggles early against orthodox spinners. He doesn't pick it from the hand or through the air, relying instead on exceptional hand-eye co-ordination and bat-speed to get him out of trouble. This works when he's "in" but is far less effective at the start of his innings.
Which is a long-winded way of saying that McCullum and Martin Guptill are in pole position to open.
In ideal circumstances I'd prefer a left-right combination to complicate opposition bowling lines and field placements, but these two have enough class and, importantly, power to compensate.
If it doesn't work, expect a quick change to a Tom Latham-Guptill combination.