I like O'Keefe, but people have been falling into the trap with his average for ages. I'm sure every other First Class spinner in the country would've absolutely loved to have their career figures boosted by
this match on what was probably the most spin-friendly pitch served up for a First Class fixture in my lifetime. It was an absolute bunsen by all reports and Senanayake and O'Keefe combining for 15 wickets in the first innings backs that up. No doubt that you have to bowl well to take 7/35 but the other bowlers didn't get that opportunity on that wicket, and he
still didn't do anything in the second innings.
He averages ~ 31 in the Sheffield Shield, which is still a very good average for a spinner in Australian conditions, but he's still very much an Australian conditions spinner in that he's just a tight stock bowler more than anything else. If the pitch is favouring spin and you need him to be a strike bowler he's not going to be able to do it for you unless it's favouring spin to the absurd degree the pitch for the match I linked above was and, again, by all reports it's something we'd never see an international level.
Last season O'Keefe took 9 wickets in 7 games at an average of 52; he was comfortably outbowled by the likes of Beer (26 wickets @ 26), Doherty (19w @ 26), Boyce (20w @ 34). Even part-timers Katich (10w @ 20) and Maxwell (16w @ 29) managed to not only average better than him but take
more wickets in substantially fewer overs. His form has been better again this season, and an argument could be made to suggest that he's actually the best man for the Test XI at home if Watson's bowling because he plays the support role better, but in India you definitely need a spinner more capable of taking genuine wickets (and Watson isn't bowling anyway).
On your point about Shield average with the ball this season.. I like Maxwell more than most of this forum in general, but you do realise how much easier it is to maintain a good average when you're used in the role Maxwell has been for Victoria this season, right? I mean, he's taken seven wickets FFS. It's a whole different thing actually being used as a frontline bowler, and I think CA are probably a bit annoyed Maxwell hasn't been given more challenging spells, but it is what it is.
I'm not even going to dignify the Dave Hussey bowling thing with a response.
FTR, I've got no beef with O'Keefe being the backup spinner in India. It's probably how I'd lean at the moment. Ahead of Lyon in subcontinent conditions though? Nah.
I hear what you're saying - basically one ought to ignore O'Keefe's career best game because it was on a turning pitch, but yet count his career worst year against him (punctuated by injury) WHILE AT THE SAME TIME counting the career best years of other spinners in their favour?
Right. Makes sense?
O'Keefe IS the leading wicket taker amongst spin bowlers THIS season.
EVEN if you disregard his best match figures on that spinning wicket (like somehow a spinner claiming wickets on a turning pitch is bad...) then he is streets ahead of the competition. His career first class average would be 30.9 without that match.
Take away Nathan Lyon's best match figures (a dustbowl where he snagged 7/83) and he averages 41 at first class level (this includes his currently inflated numbers from the test arena where he had a hot start, but is trending back towards what he is, a 40 average bowler).
If you want to argue about who is more likely to TAKE a wicket, then let's go with the strike rates. It's 66 to 75 in favour of O'Keefe.
I won't dignify the mention of Doherty by providing you with his figures, they aren't worth a mention in the 4-5 day matches (notwithstanding that he's an outstanding 50 over bowler).
Michael Beer is at 40 with a SR of 80. Taking out his best match figures he slumps to an average of 43.
On Boyce, I'd love for him to succeed, but let's not pretend he's proved anything more than a glimmer thus far.
The point you make about O'Keefe not being a strike bowler is well made. Unfortunately it is completely absurd to suggest that any of the spin options in Australia are 'strike bowlers'. Some of them produce the odd dangerous delivery, but mostly they get thrashed around the ground for little to no joy.
Hence the spin bowling role in the Australian team over the last few years has been one of 'containment'. How many wickets has Lyon scored from batsmen hitting out? Answer: lots. How effective is Lyon when we need some penetration? Answer, not at all. He is very easy to 'see off' since he is not threatening at all.
O'Keefe fills the role in much better fashion, he bowls a tighter line and is much more likely to 'nag out' a wicket LBW. Had he been bowling on the final day in Perth, I'm sure he would've had more success because he at least threatens in ONE way [but that's pure speculation].
When it all comes down to it, we have a bunch of spinners who are NOT up to international standards, and so what we ought to do is select the 'least offensive' option. Clearly that's O'Keefe. However if you think all options are equally offensive, then at least we ought to select the one who has more strings to his bow. Again, clearly that is O'Keefe. Having his lower order batting gives us that chance to play "3 allrounders" in the 6-8 spots (Wade being one of them).
Worst case is that O'Keefe would spell the quicks, keep it tight from one end, and provide some pressure in that regard. Best case is that his persistent line would produce results.
I'm really not sure where you get the point about Lyon being threatening in subcontinent conditions? Or against subcontinent batsmen? It must be because he got 6 wickets in one game against Sri Lanka?
Using your logic, that can be discounted because spinners claimed 17 wickets on that spin friendly pitch. So apart from that result his subcontinent form is an average of 94.
Personally I'm happy to let that result stand, but I don't consider a 37 average, with a 71 SR as overly impressive. Perhaps that's just me...
Worth noting that in his career against the subcontinet nations, he averages over 40 (that's over 40 against Sri Lanka and against India).
Hence I'd push for Maxwell as the second spinner. Sure, he might not be the greatest, but he's tighter than Lyon, Doherty etc. He's an outstanding fielder and will offer a whole lot in that regard, and he gives us 'depth' in the batting. It's really really hard to win in India, so let's bat deep and if we have to walk away with draws, let's do so?
Well worth noting that he bowls 13 overs per innings at state level, so it's not like he's a 5-6 over guy. As a comparison, in innings that Watson bowls for Oz, he bowls 10 overs. So while Maxwell isn't a high usage guy, he bowls a 'handy' amount as a backup spinner.
DHussey: I'll withdraw any comments I made on his spin, was overstating things to illustrate my disdain for Lyon.
Bottom line: If they manufacture spin-havens, then we don't have a spinner who can capitalize anyway, so let's bat deep and keep it tight when we bowl. O'Keefe being "at" the batsmen will produce at least as many wickets as Lyon would've anyway...