Sri Lanka really should win, but I must admit I am nervous as the pitch doesnt seem to have deteriorated that much. Also this SL team isnt used to winning test matches, and assuming England play sensibly I don't think Herath can do it alone.
If you look at the Pakistan series, Ajmal who is a much bigger threat than Herath, still benefited massively from the support from Rehman at the other end. Also the seamers still play an important role in terms of taking 1 or 2 wickets of batsman who are set against spin; Umar Gul did this very well in that series, and I think Welegedera will have to find a way take 1 or 2 wickets. Lakmal is an atrocious bowler, and while Welegedera isn't great, he is at least test standard. Obviously massive day for Mohamed Suraj tomorrow. I believe he is good enough to take wickets in these conditions, but it really is time to prove it. If I were Mahela, I would start with Herath at one end, and Welegedera at the other end. If Welegedera fails to build pressure/look threatening in 2 overs, I would swap him with Randiv quite quickly, as it is essential that Trott and Pietersen dont get comfortable against spin. I would avoid bowling Lakmal in the first session; I would probably only give him a go if after an hour and a half Trott and Pietersen are still there and scoring freely.
Trott is the big wicket. Pietersen will offer a chance somewhere down the line, but Trott once he gets in tends to have a tighter technique and one that is better suited to these surfaces. Pietersen will always give the bowler some chance because he goes hard at the ball.