***Official*** Zimbabwe in New Zealand 2012

[Hurricane]

Wells' averages over the past three seasons are outstanding, I can see how he'd be picked on a stat-based system. Same with Watling with the bat, with the gloves being an intuitive thing. And again with Bates, discounting this season. I think what counts in Bates' favour is he has got a really high percentage of his wickets with top order players, and internationals at that.

But definitely take your point on McKay as an unfortunate one and de Grandhomme as a lucky one. Maybe it is all a facade.

As for de Grandhomme, obviously I'm one of his biggest fan boys..but I wonder if there's ever been a batsman selected in form of the game for any international team who hasn't scored a domestic half-century?

Look at his SR (170) - mabe they are doing that calculation that KN talked about avg + SR.

 

[NZTailender]

Heard it on good authority last night from a guy who played high school cricket with Ellis that he's a massive ****. Not surprised tbh.

 

[SteveNZ]

I take it that **** is chucker? Probably a dirty word around here.

That 5% intuition always seemed a ridiculously small number to me anyway. Unlucky for Greg Hay, he'd have been a shoe-in a few years ago based on stats alone but they relied a truckload on intuition. Now he's not even playing FC cricket.

I think in de Grandhomme's case they back the coaching staff and the environment to get the best out of him. There's no doubt he's one of the most talented cricketers running around, it just needs polish. Bet the Aces rue not playing him in the CL qualifying.

 

[straw man]

Yep and hopefully the coaching staff are successful in getting the best out of him, and everyone else. The value of their 'intuition' will be decided by how well players like Wells and Watling perform.

 

[kiwiviktor81]

What will the Zimbabwe lineup look like for the ODIs? Without Sibanda I'm guessing Matsikenyeri will open?

Will it be something like:

1. Matsikenyeri
2. H. Mazakadza
3. Mutizwa
4. Taylor
5. Taibu
6. Waller
7. Chakabra
8. Utseya
9. Price
10. Jarvis
11. Vitori

?

 

[Nigel Benjamin]

What will the Zimbabwe lineup look like for the ODIs? Without Sibanda I'm guessing Matsikenyeri will open?

Will it be something like:

1. Matsikenyeri
2. H. Mazakadza
3. Mutizwa
4. Taylor
5. Taibu
6. Waller
7. Chakabra
8. Utseya
9. Price
10. Jarvis
11. Vitori

?

I think Mutizwa will get the boot and Chigumbura will come in. I also don't know if Razor and Meth are fit enough to play so:
Masakadza
Matsikenyeri
Taylor(c)
Taibu(wk)
Chakabva
Waller
Chigumbura
Utseya
Price
Jarvis
Vitori

 

[wellAlbidarned]

Heard it on good authority last night from a guy who played high school cricket with Ellis that he's a massive ****. Not surprised tbh.

Tend to hear that about most high level cricketers, it's pretty common among ace sportsmen in general.

 

[kiwiviktor81]

I think Mutizwa will get the boot and Chigumbura will come in. I also don't know if Razor and Meth are fit enough to play so:
Masakadza
Matsikenyeri
Taylor(c)
Taibu(wk)
Chakabva
Waller
Chigumbura
Utseya
Price
Jarvis
Vitori

Cool, thanks for that. From what I heard Meth's injury was bad enough so that he should miss the limited overs leg, but that was over a week ago so who knows.

 

[Hurricane]

Tend to hear that about most high level cricketers, it's pretty common among ace sportsmen in general.

We had this conversation on Saturday. Honestly the self belief necessary to succeed at the top level is immense. Some guys are worse than others though. I remember being selected for Hamilton under 18s and I turned it down a) to study because I was failing calculas b)because one or two of the guys got up my nose and I didn't want to be their team mate.

Reason b seems like a pretty stupid reason now looking back on it - but I wouldn't have gotten into University if I hadn't have pulled up my Calculas grade.

Mixedemotionswiththatdecision.jpeg

Moral of story arrogance is pretty common with cricketers at a young age.

 

[wellAlbidarned]

It's almost the sole reason I haven't particularly pushed myself with my cricket playing despite being in and around the Hamilton rep sides tbh. It's just not worth it surrounding yourself with ****wits in life, full stop.

 

[NZTailender]

I don't think he meant he was a **** just because of competitive sports, but that he's a **** because he's a ****.

 

[wellAlbidarned]

Yeah but we were just pointing out how it's no coincidence that the two often go together - talented sportspeople are all too often up-themselves ****s off the field.

 

[KiWiNiNjA]

We had this conversation on Saturday. Honestly the self belief necessary to succeed at the top level is immense. Some guys are worse than others though. I remember being selected for Hamilton under 18s and I turned it down a) to study because I was failing calculas b)because one or two of the guys got up my nose and I didn't want to be their team mate.

Reason b seems like a pretty stupid reason now looking back on it - but I wouldn't have gotten into University if I hadn't have pulled up my Calculas grade.

Maybe you should have focused on your English, as well as your Calculus.

 

[straw man]

wer is you'r ful stopp?

Muphry's law in action

 

[KiWiNiNjA]

I was so careful too.

 

[Hurricane]

Been 19 years since I have looked at the word...cut me some slack bol

 

[Prince EWS]

How much bias the magical pie shows toward recent performances over those from past years is a question I don't know the answer to. A good system would definitely weight recent performances higher while trying not to be tooooo swayed by brief patches of really good form. Wells batting numbers might suggest the numbers are not too heavily swayed in favour of recent performances, because 38 and 40 batting averages in last two seasons are not great compared with other lower middle order players around (averaged 60 back in 09/10 FC). Wells is ranked 69th in the MVP points thing (FC) and ironically 1 and 2 are two batsman/medium-pacers (Franklin and Ellis). Yet these two were passed over (Franklin perhaps because of past failures) and Wells picked.

Same with Bates - agree last few seasons has been pretty good in limited overs so if considering that whole period then deserves to be there. But then we have Latham who's been selected from a very short time frame.

Another factor - dunno if they go into this much detail - Wells may (I haven't looked and can't remember) have scored runs when his team were in a bad position, it was a match where not many runs were scored in total and the opposition bowlers were rated highly (by the same pie system). Therefore the system may give his runs a higher value than someone who scores runs in the opposite situation ie. when it's easy. Similar to your point about Bates taking higher-order wickets being more highly valued by le pie.

Anyway that's all speculation. My last bit of speculation is that although only 5% is meant to be based on intuition, I'm pretty sure they rate people on being a good team man, fitness and fielding, all of which are probably just ratings based on gut feel themselves. If you're the coach/selector, this would be very easily manipulated to get the answers you want

If they wanted to pick a batting allrounder in the squad and their intuition factor along with his past Test failures allowed them to blackball Franklin then Wells would absolutely get picked on stats, even a system correctly weighted with a 'bias' towards more recent performances.

 

[SteveNZ]

Just seen that Andy McKay is the leading wickettaker in the one-dayers as well. Absolutely robbed to not be a part of either squad. Pretty clear this numbers system Littlejohn talked about isn't a reality when you look at these figures:

Ford Trophy: 18 wickets at 18.05, strike rate 19.8 economy rate 5.24. Top wicket taker, six ahead of next bowler.

HRV Cup: 12 wickets at 19.83, economy rate 7.67. Fourth top wicket-taker.

Both numbers better than Michael Bates who was picked in both forms. McKay was the incumbent left-arm seamer in ODIs, averages 26.4 yet is dropped for a guy who was in form last season, but not this one. And was actually dropped by the Aces from that format.

I'd hope it wasn't based on the last ODI in Zimbabwe, where yes he bowled a steaming pile but a) had Taylor dropped at slip midway through his spell at slip and was punished by him from there and b) he'd taken 4-55 previous match, a one-off performance you'd hope.

 

[Flem274*]

Just seen that Andy McKay is the leading wickettaker in the one-dayers as well. Absolutely robbed to not be a part of either squad. Pretty clear this numbers system Littlejohn talked about isn't a reality when you look at these figures:

Ford Trophy: 18 wickets at 18.05, strike rate 19.8 economy rate 5.24. Top wicket taker, six ahead of next bowler.

HRV Cup: 12 wickets at 19.83, economy rate 7.67. Fourth top wicket-taker.

Both numbers better than Michael Bates who was picked in both forms. McKay was the incumbent left-arm seamer in ODIs, averages 26.4 yet is dropped for a guy who was in form last season, but not this one. And was actually dropped by the Aces from that format.

I'd hope it wasn't based on the last ODI in Zimbabwe, where yes he bowled a steaming pile but a) had Taylor dropped at slip midway through his spell at slip and was punished by him from there and b) he'd taken 4-55 previous match, a one-off performance you'd hope.

That might be it right there. If he's expensive in domestix, he's only going to be more expensive at a higher level. The selectors might not be keen on a strike bowler who goes at sixes and sevens.

 

[vandem]

Just seen that Andy McKay is the leading wickettaker in the one-dayers as well. Absolutely robbed to not be a part of either squad. Pretty clear this numbers system Littlejohn talked about isn't a reality when you look at these figures:

Ford Trophy: 18 wickets at 18.05, strike rate 19.8 economy rate 5.24. Top wicket taker, six ahead of next bowler.

HRV Cup: 12 wickets at 19.83, economy rate 7.67. Fourth top wicket-taker.

Both numbers better than Michael Bates who was picked in both forms. McKay was the incumbent left-arm seamer in ODIs, averages 26.4 yet is dropped for a guy who was in form last season, but not this one. And was actually dropped by the Aces from that format....

"Incumbent" wasn't an important factor in the Zim ODI and T20 series selections. Littlejohn said on RadioSport after the team announcment that they were taking a look at some new players, building towards the next T20 World Cup, and specifically mentioned that McKay and Woodcock were unlucky to miss out but remained in the selection frame.

Looking at the teams, is reasonably obvious that Bates + Nethula (ODI) and Bates + Hira (T20) are direct replacements for McKay + Woodcock in the backup seamer / backup spinner slots in the squads (assuming that Bracewell has jumped into the starting XI to accompany Mills + Southee + Oram + McCullum).

I suspect that Bates was rested / rotated for the Auck vs Wgtn 1d game, not dropped.

But hard on McKay in particular.