*Official* Pakistan in England 2010

[Furball]

Kuper's book is a great read, as is Moneyball. The biggest issue I hold with the parallels drawn between Moneyball and cricket analysis is that Moneyball is built around the analysis of statistics that were ignored, or over/under-valued. Effectively, it boils baseball down to a different tactical business than had been otherwise implemented: Beane wanted batters who took bases, allowed balls, didn't strike-out - grinders and percentage players, rather than the flair players who impress with big hits. There was another analysis with pitchers, but I don't recall it as I don't follow baseball closely enough for the specifics to have had resonance.

It is very tough to replicate this in cricket as players like Vaughan, Collingwood, Trescothick and Morgan do not have any statistics, popular or otherwise, that elevate them above your Hicks and Ramprakashes (and Boparas?) I have tried analysing stats like dot ball percentage, runs in boundaries, or even making up my own stats based on combinations of these, and they have indicated kids who have gone on to really kick on with the bat - but I can't help but thinking I was trying to match the stats to my instincts of the kids who would go on and get runs.

The first part is interesting, and could be implemented in LO cricket - there's certainly a perception that you need big hitters in both whereas I'd argue that a player who keeps dot balls to a bare minimum and is quick between the wickets to take tight 1s and turns 1s into 2s, as well as smack the occasional ball over the ropes is a far more valuable player.

edit: I'll need to get my hands on a copy of moneyball, but it sounds like it could potentially be useful for an IPL franchise owner - Shane Warne mentioned in commentary that the owner of the Rajasthan Royals used it to pick players for IPL 1, and that he'd given Warne himself a copy to read.

For guys like Morgan, it basically boils down to temperament, which is extremely hard to quantify statistically - with 4 statisticians on board, I'm sure that Flower might have a bunch of stats to hand that indicate that Morgan is more likely to deal with pressure situations than Bopara etc.

 

[marc71178]

Never read the book, but would be quite interesting to see how sabermetrics could explain the selection of a player like Morgan. His FC career very ordinary so far.

Personally I think I've been saying for a long time that FC records are not the be-all and end-all that some people like to think. There are some things that a simple average doesn't tell you about, and if you look at most of our better batsmen of the past 10-15 years, their FC record wouldn't even get them a call up in the first place.

It all stems down to watching them in action and in the nets and getting to know more about the player than the casual armchair fan will ever be able to.

 

[NUFAN]

I went to sleep at tea time, and was not surprised in the slightest that england didnt lose a wicket in the last session, cause Pakistan lost all kinds of momentum in the last hour before tea.

Pakistan didn't drop a catch against Australia, Akmal is so dire, can't believe he's not confident in standing a little bit closer, Morgan could and should have been out early and I think the entire game and possibly Morgan's career would be completely different.

I think he'll go from strength to strength now.

In other news Amir is my favourite bowler in world cricket to watch at the moment, easily.

 

[Top_Cat]

Personally I think I've been saying for a long time that FC records are not the be-all and end-all that some people like to think. There are some things that a simple average doesn't tell you about, and if you look at most of our better batsmen of the past 10-15 years, their FC record wouldn't even get them a call up in the first place.

It all stems down to watching them in action and in the nets and getting to know more about the player than the casual armchair fan will ever be able to.

As cricket statistics currently stand, sure. They're incredibly blunt measures. But if they ever got as detailed as sabrmetrics, without being able to 100% predict, indicators of class/form would be far stronger.

Mind you, there are variables which would be incredibly hard to take into account and they play quite a role in whether a player is in form or a good player. Stuff like pitch/weather, etc. are massive factors. That and a baseball has far more innings in a game and season. On the plus side, cricket's a lot richer in terms of trends within a game than baseball so if measures were developed for that......

Eh, it'd be a big job. I'd do it if I had the time.

 

[Black_Warrior]

After this test, I hope it is clear to all and sundry that Kaneria is a poor bowler and if I ever see anyone associate the term "classy" with Kaneria..or look up to him as a potential threat, or point towards him as one of the trump cards of Pakistan..I will come after them with a brick bat. Seriously!

 

[Neil Pickup]

Personally I think I've been saying for a long time that FC records are not the be-all and end-all that some people like to think. There are some things that a simple average doesn't tell you about, and if you look at most of our better batsmen of the past 10-15 years, their FC record wouldn't even get them a call up in the first place.

It all stems down to watching them in action and in the nets and getting to know more about the player than the casual armchair fan will ever be able to.

I think Morgan's interview was pretty telling - talking about the atmosphere in the dressing room and the buzz of international cricket. It basically came down to "I scored bugger all FC runs for Middlesex because no one was watching, it really didn't matter and I couldn't be arsed."

This is versus the Ramps approach whereby "lots of people were watching, so I **** meself, danced down the wicket, missed the ball by eight inches and got stumped by four yards."

EDIT: I would love to see the stats Flower uses and figure out a way to adapt them into my own coaching. There has to be a better way than instinctive judgements, even if I am usually right...

 

[Sir Alex]

After this test, I hope it is clear to all and sundry that Kaneria is a poor bowler and if I ever see anyone associate the term "classy" with Kaneria..or look up to him as a potential threat, or point towards him as one of the trump cards of Pakistan..I will come after them with a brick bat. Seriously!

2 lbws overturned and a stumping messed up, harsh on him. Yes he bowled pies yesterday but on a different day he'd have had 3 wickets to his credit.

 

[Burgey]

Gotta love the breezy way Morgan just keeps bashing runs against everyone. Would be one of the toughest players to bowl to in world cricket right now; if you had to, where would you bowl to at least shut him up?

Obviously not being from that part of the world I'm no expert on the bloke but am I right in assuming his cheeky, innovative style is a relatively new thing for him?

When in doubt, bounce the **** out of them.

 

[BoyBrumby]

Gotta love the breezy way Morgan just keeps bashing runs against everyone. Would be one of the toughest players to bowl to in world cricket right now; if you had to, where would you bowl to at least shut him up?

Obviously not being from that part of the world I'm no expert on the bloke but am I right in assuming his cheeky, innovative style is a relatively new thing for him?

Seems like he's always played like that when I've been watching him. He looks a lot more wristy than the average English batsman, which seems to give him an advantage when it comes to manipulating the ball into gaps and I've seen this ascribed to his background in hurling.

Whether this is true or just lazy journalism tho, I don't know.

 

[TT Boy]

Kamran Akmal is vice-captain. Sydney was what 3 test matches ago?

About as crazy decision as making Salman “I’m just a little bit better than Imran Farhat and I speak English” Butt captain.

England should waltz home from here. Wicket is taking turn, Pak can't bat and their bowling attack is overrated.

 

[Spark]

Seems like he's always played like that when I've been watching him. He looks a lot more wristy than the average English batsman, which seems to give him an advantage when it comes to manipulating the ball into gaps and I've seen this ascribed to his background in hurling.

Whether this is true or just lazy journalism tho, I don't know.

Dire understatement.

YouTube - Eoin Morgan reverse reverse sweep!

 

[flibbertyjibber]

I would love to see the stats Flower uses and figure out a way to adapt them into my own coaching. There has to be a better way than instinctive judgements, even if I am usually right...

Lets face it 2 of our last 3 coaches have been pretty good on the hunches they went for when the rest of the country looked openmouthed and said they weren't test players.Fletcher went for Trescothick and Vaughan who had ordinary FC records and then shocked everyone in 2005 by dropping Thorpe for Pietersen.Flower has gone with Morgan,Trott and Finn who i doubt at the time anyone would have selected when they were chosen for their test debuts ad so far it has paid off.

Whether it is luck or brilliant judgement is open for debate but they seem good at pulling rabbits out of the hat and long may it continue.

 

[Prince EWS]

Lets face it 2 of our last 3 coaches have been pretty good on the hunches they went for when the rest of the country looked openmouthed and said they weren't test players.Fletcher went for Trescothick and Vaughan who had ordinary FC records and then shocked everyone in 2005 by dropping Thorpe for Pietersen.Flower has gone with Morgan,Trott and Finn who i doubt at the time anyone would have selected when they were chosen for their test debuts ad so far it has paid off.

Whether it is luck or brilliant judgement is open for debate but they seem good at pulling rabbits out of the hat and long may it continue.

Nah Trott was a pretty popular choice when he came in for his debut; he was dominating the Championship at the time, averaging close to 100 IIRC. Morgan definitely had his backers for a Test chance too after his ODI performances; it was his original selection in the ODI team that raised a few eyebrows.

Anyway, lets not get too carried away with either of them yet. They've each only had one innings of real substance so we'll wait and see. They each have technical problems to overcome for mine and I still think Trott's batting a bit too high.

 

[Spark]

Also with Trott, he was replacing a guy who was averaging... not much.

 

[flibbertyjibber]

Anyway, lets not get too carried away with either of them yet. They've each only had one innings of real substance so we'll wait and see. They each have technical problems to overcome for mine and I still think Trott's batting a bit too high.

Why not,Aussies get carried away with their players all the time.

 

[Prince EWS]

Why not,Aussies get carried away with their players all the time.

Relevance?

 

[flibbertyjibber]

None needed,just a fact.If i can't get excited about a few players making good starts to their career when will i?

 

[Prince EWS]

None needed,just a fact.If i can't get excited about a few players making good starts to their career when will i?

Haha well you can get excited I suppose but it doesn't mean you can use them as proof of definitive selection punts that paid off. They haven't proven to be successful at Test level, yet.

Still don't see what Australians have to do with any of this though. If Australia picked Callum Ferguson in the Test team and he proceeded to hit a ton on debut, then a member used him as an example of a selection punt coming off long-term I'd say the exact same thing. I'm not sure if you're trying to accuse me of bias or what here. Who do you actually think I support?

 

[vic_orthdox]

None needed,just a fact.If i can't get excited about a few players making good starts to their career when will i?

Have just read through the thread.

Interesting game, isn't it - Morgan gets given LBW to what (according to a couple of posters in here) would have been given if a review was still had, and he leaves the lower order under pressure, and is pretty much guaranteed of being the casualty when Bell is fit.

Now he's on his way to notching up a big 100 and turning the Test into an easy win, and possibly securing himself a permanent spot in the line-up. So many amazing variables and what-ifs in our game.

 

[Prince EWS]

Have just read through the thread.

Interesting game, isn't it - Morgan gets given LBW to what (according to a couple of posters in here) would have been given if a review was still had, and he leaves the lower order under pressure, and is pretty much guaranteed of being the casualty when Bell is fit.

Now he's on his way to notching up a big 100 and turning the Test into an easy win, and possibly securing himself a permanent spot in the line-up. So many amazing variables and what-ifs in our game.

Hmm dunno, still reckon Bell might come back in. Depends how Morgan goes for the rest of this series really.