***Official England in India***

[Richard]

I've only watched about 1 hour of this Test, however, I think it's still very, very even.

I saw enough of Gambhir in the recent series against Australia to think that he's a massive wicket, get him out early and the English are on their way, if not they could be in some trouble, I think Dravid is due btw.

I've thought he's been due for most of the last 2 years. Doesn't mean he won't today, but that he never will again isn't impossible either.

As for Gambhir - if Dravid and Tendulkar fall early-ish tomorrow, I'd go so far as to say I'd be almost certain Gambhir would not be capable of playing a role in an Indian victory.

And I certainly think England are favourites, though that's a head rather than heart thought. Like all the England fans on here, I know full well that we could perfectly possibly kock this up.

 

[Goughy]

The odds are set by where the money goes. If a lot of money is going on India then the odds shorten.

Bookmakers dont care who they think will win, they just care about setting the odds to maximise profit based on who punters think will win.

India are favourites, not because the Bookies think they will win, but because more money is backing an India win than an England win. If the opposite were true then England would be favourites without any change in game situation.

 

[Uppercut]

I haven't - not a better and never have been, never known of anyone make a profit on it - and I can't quite fully comprehend what you say. Maybe I will sometime when it's not 10:15 of a nighttime when I had 5 hours sleep the previous night.

Exactly my point. Basically what that equates to is that noone you know has the prediction skills to match the bookies, and i've never met anyone who does either.

 

[Richard]

The odds are set by where the money goes. If a lot of money is going on India then the odds shorten.

Bookmakers dont care who they think will win, they just care about setting the odds to maximise profit based on who punters think will win.

India are favourites, not because the Bookies think they will win, but because more money is backing an India win than an England win. If the opposite were true than England would be favourites without any change in game situation.

I think I can get my head round that.

 

[Uppercut]

The odds are set by where the money goes. If a lot of money is going on India then the odds shorten.

Bookmakers dont care who they think will win, they just care about setting the odds to maximise profit based on who punters think will win.

India are favourites, not because the Bookies think they will win, but because more money is backing an India win than an England win. If the opposite were true than England would be favourites without any change in game situation.

Yeah i know, but my point still stands. Do you know of anyone who can make money off bookmakers?

 

[Richard]

Exactly my point. Basically what that equates to is that noone you know has the prediction skills to match the bookies, and i've never met anyone who does either.

I'm not entirely sure about that. Isn't the fact that people don't neccessarily aim to predict right constantly and more often aim for longer shots that will, if successful, earn a greater sum, also quite important?

This is entirely a guess, as I say - I know next to nothing about the mindset of the gambling punter.

 

[Top_Cat]

Reckon India think England missed a trick here, they would definitely have been anticipating a 400+ chase. I think this'll be one of those games whose destiny will be decided in the first hour today.

 

[NUFAN]

I've thought he's been due for most of the last 2 years. Doesn't mean he won't today, but that he never will again isn't impossible either.

As for Gambhir - if Dravid and Tendulkar fall early-ish tomorrow, I'd go so far as to say I'd be almost certain Gambhir would not be capable of playing a role in an Indian victory.

And I certainly think England are favourites, though that's a head rather than heart thought. Like all the England fans on here, I know full well that we could perfectly possibly kock this up.

Wouldn't it be a heart rather than head thought as you know your team could easily kock it up?

I fancy myself as a bit of a gambler, never bet high amounts though. Find Cricket not the hardest sport to bet on, I do stay clear on betting on Australian games though, unless we've started semi poorly and our odds have risen.

 

[Richard]

Wouldn't it be a heart rather than head thought as you know your team could easily kock it up?

Nah. I know the chances of it happening are still pretty slim (the head part), but I also just can't be thinking "I know they're slim, so I won't worry too much about it" (the heart part).

 

[Uppercut]

I'm not entirely sure about that. Isn't the fact that people don't neccessarily aim to predict right constantly and more often aim for longer shots that will, if successful, earn a greater sum, also quite important?

This is entirely a guess, as I say - I know next to nothing about the mindset of the gambling punter.

Oh yes, absolutely. I bet small sums quite often just to give myself some interest in a series i otherwise wouldn't care about. But even if you were to bet on what you think will happen all the time, you still wouldn't make any money.

As an idea, we could start a prediction game where everyone starts with a certain sum of (imaginary) money then places it on cricket bets at quoted odds. Whoever has the most money at the end of a given time, say one month, would win. Any interest?

 

[G.I.Joe]

Sehwag is now the highest run scorer in Test cricket in 2008, and with those 4 sixes yesterday (overall, 64), he's overtaken Kapil Dev (61 sixes) as the player with the maximum number of sixes for India in Test cricket too. Done it in close to half the number of games too, mind.

 

[silentstriker]

I think anyone that pegs India as the favorites is crazy. No one has chases 300 in India, ever. Forget about 400.

Now Sehwag's innings was really good, but let's be honest here. As Sachin was earlier, then Dravid, Sehwag now seems to be the mainstray of this lineup (and it hurts me immeasurably to say that). The great advantage of his innings is that due to the runs, now England can't set ultra-aggressive fields and it'll give the rest of the lineup some opportunity to breathe.

India's middle order is brittle. Yuvraj is not a legitimate batsman at this level, Dravid is a passenger, Dhoni too hit and miss. That leaves Gambhir, Sachin and Laxman. It's not Australia, so Laxman is out. Sachin is not the force he used to be, and I don't think Gambhir will do much on a pitch that is up and down.

If we had picked two of Badrinath/Vijay/Pujara instead of Yuvraj and Dravid, England may only win 8 out of 10 times this situation plays out. As it is, they should win close to 10 out of 10. And really, they should wrap this up by tea time tonight.

It'll be exciting though, and I'll be watching.

 

[Lillian Thomson]

The odds are set by where the money goes. If a lot of money is going on India then the odds shorten.

Bookmakers dont care who they think will win, they just care about setting the odds to maximise profit based on who punters think will win.

India are favourites, not because the Bookies think they will win, but because more money is backing an India win than an England win. If the opposite were true then England would be favourites without any change in game situation.

The odds are set by the bookmakers then adjusted according to where the money goes. They'll often set something that looks enticing but improbable.........for example 500-1 on an England victory at Headingley in 1981. Lillee and Marsh are still counting their winnings.

 

[Uppercut]

I think anyone that pegs India as the favorites is crazy. No one has chases 300 in India, ever. Forget about 400.

Now Sehwag's innings was really good, but let's be honest here. As Sachin was earlier, then Dravid, Sehwag now seems to be the mainstray of this lineup (and it hurts me immeasurably to say that). The great advantage of his innings is that due to the runs, now England can't set ultra-aggressive fields and it'll give the rest of the lineup some opportunity to breathe.

India's middle order is brittle. Yuvraj is not a legitimate batsman at this level, Dravid is a passenger, Dhoni too hit and miss. That leaves Gambhir, Sachin and Laxman. It's not Australia, so Laxman is out. Sachin is not the force he used to be, and I don't think Gambhir will do much on a pitch that is up and down.

If we had picked two of Badrinath/Vijay/Pujara instead of Yuvraj and Dravid, England may only win 8 out of 10 times this situation plays out. As it is, they should win close to 10 out of 10. And really, they should wrap this up by tea time tonight.

It'll be exciting though, and I'll be watching.

SS backs England; bookmakers cut India to odds-on

 

[duffer]

SS backs England; bookmakers cut India to odds-on

I'd stop taking bets on them tbh

 

[NUFAN]

Oh yes, absolutely. I bet small sums quite often just to give myself some interest in a series i otherwise wouldn't care about. But even if you were to bet on what you think will happen all the time, you still wouldn't make any money.

As an idea, we could start a prediction game where everyone starts with a certain sum of (imaginary) money then places it on cricket bets at quoted odds. Whoever has the most money at the end of a given time, say one month, would win. Any interest?

Yeah I'd be interested, think a fair few people would be.

Would like to do it for longer than a month though. Perhaps for all of 2009. Could make it you have to bet in half the matches each month and use a good site like Bet 365. In for the long haul.

 

[Uppercut]

Yeah I'd be interested, think a fair few people would be.

Would like to do it for longer than a month though. Perhaps for all of 2009. Could make it you have to bet in half the matches each month and use a good site like Bet 365. In for the long haul.

Yeah, Bet365 would probably be best, it has more options to bet on than anywhere else i can think of. I was going to have it where you can bet as much as you like, as often as you like, so people can be aggressive or selective to whatever degree they want. The problem in doing it for a year though is that people could lose all their money fairly early on and not be able to play again until next year.

I'll start a thread anyway and see what response we get.

 

[biased indian]

I think anyone that pegs India as the favorites is crazy. No one has chases 300 in India, ever. Forget about 400.

Now Sehwag's innings was really good, but let's be honest here. As Sachin was earlier, then Dravid, Sehwag now seems to be the mainstray of this lineup (and it hurts me immeasurably to say that). The great advantage of his innings is that due to the runs, now England can't set ultra-aggressive fields and it'll give the rest of the lineup some opportunity to breathe.

India's middle order is brittle. Yuvraj is not a legitimate batsman at this level, Dravid is a passenger, Dhoni too hit and miss. That leaves Gambhir, Sachin and Laxman. It's not Australia, so Laxman is out. Sachin is not the force he used to be, and I don't think Gambhir will do much on a pitch that is up and down.

If we had picked two of Badrinath/Vijay/Pujara instead of Yuvraj and Dravid, England may only win 8 out of 10 times this situation plays out. As it is, they should win close to 10 out of 10. And really, they should wrap this up by tea time tonight.

It'll be exciting though, and I'll be watching.

he is at it again ...hope his magic in the Aussie thread carries to here

 

[pskov]

England 60%
India 30%
Draw 10%

 

[maxpower]

There is a good possibility Dhoni comes to bat early if there is a sense of IND victory.