My foolproof-bet-your-house-on-it preview:
Feroz Shah Kotla is just about the worst venue for Australia to go at. India win there all the time, mainly due to the pitch suiting Kumble perfectly. Australia were humbled and suffered their biggest loss by runs in more than a decade, and India seem to be on the ascendancy.
Or so that's what everyone says. The devil lies in the details. First, Kumble, that match winner of yesteryear, is no longer the force he once was, and even if he is, cannot be expected to run through a side while recovering from an injury. To make matters worse, Harbhajan is also suffering and may not be fully fit. If he does not play, we'll have Mishra - who did well in the first match, but will not be an unknown quantity any more. Ishant still hasn't figured out how to take wickets consistantly even though he troubles batsmen, and Zaheer can easily get overconfident. Plus, if you attack him, sometimes he can get too defensive early on, and that could be bad. The Indian batting lineup is not what it once was either, and can be brittle and prone to collapses, especially if there is good pressure from both sides. Dravid is averaging 30 in two years, Tendulkar is on the decline, Laxman is a drag on the middle order, Dhoni is unproven in Tests and Sehwag is pretty much the only one that can put up a big score - and that too only in the first innings.
Add to this Australia have been hearing doom and gloom predictions about their stature in cricket, and Ponting is probably fuming that people are calling him a bad captain, and his personal performances aren't lifting him up. He can feel slighted, considering every team that visits India loses, including Aussie teams at their peak - and sometimes they lose by an innings too. The only difference is, now people are no longer giving the Australians the benefit of the doubt - after all, it's not like they've only lost two series in a decade or anything. So I think Australians will be pumped up and it'll be their big comeback - the entire team will have an us-against-the-world mentality and they'll go all out in winning this Test.
Krejza did not do well in the tour game, so he'll be pumped up, and India may underestimate him based on his one performance, and get carried away on a pitch that may suit him. White hasn't bowled badly and this'll be the first pitch that will go in his favor. And we know that Clarke can easily break the Indian lineup in the space of a few overs (remember his 6/9 or this three wickets in an over)? Add to that the Aussie bowlers will be picking apart any secrets of reverse swing, and Brett Lee will probably start getting used to the conditions here - a bowler of his quality simply won't be kept down forever.
You also have the best lineup in the world. Hayden looked to be aggressive before a freak sweep shot got him out - this is a shot he has gotten hundreds of runs with in his career. Hussey played a very un-Hussey shot to get out, and he certainly won't be doing that again. Watto is coming on strong, and Ponting will be wanting to rectify his bad run and go back to his first Test form. All the Aussies have something to prove, individually and as a team.
So you have potential Indian overconfidence not in line with their ability, and an Australian team that feels slighted and madly wants to prove everyone wrong - I think we have a recipe here for a big Aussie win.
Final Prediction: Aussies to win by 220 runs.
